Here’s a statistic for you: excluding a certain American, no one has retained their Tour de France title since 1995, when Miguel Indurain won his fifth and last Tour in a row.
This is a remarkable statistic, some of the greatest riders of the recent era haven’t been able to hold on to their title the year after winning it.
This of course includes the likes of Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, and Cadel Evans. Not to mention the drug-fuelled stars of the nineties, where Jan Ullrich and Marco Pantani both failed to retain.
The question that immediately and obviously springs up is why? Why have some of the best cyclists of the last two decades failed? Well, upon closer inspection, a host of different reasons present themselves.
In 2012, we witnessed the painful sight of Evans struggling up a mountain in chase of that year’s runaway winner Bradley Wiggins. It was only later that we found out he was suffering from a virus.
The curse of illness and injury is a painful way of losing your title, particularly when you know you stood a good chance of retaining said title. Evans was struck down with a virus in 2012, and two years later Froome would find himself falling on the tarmac of northern France, all but ending his hopes of victory that year.
Also a painful reason to lose is that of being beaten, or usurped as it were, by your own teammate. It happened to Bjarne Riis in 1997, when a young Ullrich climbed his way out of the Dane’s shadow, and to Wiggins in 2013.
Wiggins of course didn’t enter the 2013 race through injury, but the message coming out of the Sky team before the race was that Froome was the designated leader. He had been usurped before the race had even begun.
Then there’s the age old cycling conundrum – drugs. Cheating cost Contador both attempts at retaining his title. In 2008, his Astana team were refused a place at the Tour de France as a result of doping scandals in the team during the 2007 race and its links to the Operation Puerto scandal, meaning the Spaniard was unable to defend his 2007 title.
Then in 2010, he actually did successfully defend his 2009 Tour de France title, before being stripped of it after a positive test for clenbuterol, making Andy Schleck the winner of the race.
Although drugs will most likely not feature in his mindset, Froome will be well aware of the precedent that has been set over the last two decades as he looks to defend his title in 2016.
He himself knows the pitfalls of being a defending champion, having crashed out with number one on his back in 2014. Next year though presents a very good opportunity for the Brit to retain his title.
There will be no cobbles, the first week looks to be relatively calm in comparison with previous years, and there are more time trial kilometres in 2016, favouring him over his nearest likely rival Nairo Quintana.
If he can avoid all the pitfalls, Froome has the best chance in years to defend his title, and I think he’ll do it.
Sam Brown
Roar Guru
I'd say every rider who won the Tour since the 60s and probably earlier has to come under some sort of suspicion. I don't think they were as sophisticated as Armstrong and his era but there are enough cases of people getting caught that it is hard to really believe anyone was completely clean.
Tomas Fish
Roar Guru
I definitely think multiple Tour wins had something to do with doping in the past. I find it very hard to believe Indurain was clean, but I would also say it is possible. If Froome retains next year, I wouldn't assume it was down to anything clandestine.
AL Koszarek
Guest
It is hard to believe the doping did not exist before Armstrong. Can you really believe prior multiple tour wins were not, in some part, attributable to doping?
Tomas Fish
Roar Guru
I agree with you Sam that Froome looks like the most likely at the moment. Quintana would have to get two friendly courses, two much time trialling and I can see him shifting focus to the Giro or Vuelta. Aru is an interesting one, if he can improve his time trial then I would never say never.
Sam Brown
Roar Guru
It's a hard question, if anyone in today's peloton can I'd say it is Froome, he seems like the most hardcore of the GC contenders, completely all consumed with the Tour and winning it. He has the best all round skills, he can really push everyone in the mountains but is by far the best GC Time Trialist. A few years ago I would have included Contador in that list but I don't think he could any more unfortunately. Maybe Quintana would be in with a shot if he got two of the right courses back to back but I'd say Froome's the better all rounder at this point. The last name I'd throw up is Aru, he is still very young, has already shown he is among the best climbers in the world and showed at the Vuelta that his TT ability is improving, if he can continue his current trajectory I can certainly see him one day winning back to back tours. I honestly think he is something extremely special.
Tomas Fish
Roar Guru
I wouldn't say no to two Tours a year! Quintana will definitely be the biggest challenge to Froome, but you're right there are plenty of other riders worthy of a challenge. Hardly surprising really that no one has retained in a while!
Scott Pryde
Expert
Quintana has improved, and continues to improve his time trialling abilities, and his stage 20 exploits last year show he is the superior climber although Froome has an uncanny ability to hang in there even when everything looks lost, as it was beginning to on that day to the Alpe d'Huez. I think Quintana will be TDF champion next year and that will be highlighted in an article I have published tomorrow, however it will be close and certainly won't be easy. You have to remember there are a stack of others out to do damage. Van Garderen got sick this year, Contador had already done the Giro, some of the other youngsters are improving at a rapid pace. At the end of the day the TDF is the hardest race to predict in the world and I can't wait for it to get going... Oh wait it is still seven months away. Should be two a year!