New Zealand should be clear favourites for the Rugby World Cup final. Barring one poor performance in Sydney, they have put all of the major rugby nations to the sword in the last 12 months and well and truly deserve their number one ranking.
However, the Michael Cheika-coached Wallabies have performed much better than anyone expected throughout the cup.
So have the Wallabies improved enough to beat the All Blacks at full strength?
Here are the areas of the game that I believe will dictate the outcome.
The scrum
Scrums result in three-point opportunities and territory. Both sides struggled against a very strong Puma scrum, however did well against the other nations.
Both sides will be seeking the ascendancy at scrum time and I would wager that the Wallabies feel they have the edge here – particularly if Scott Sio is fit and packing down.
The attacking gain line
Both sides, particularly the Wallabies, are going to seek to win the contacts and cross the advantage line in attack. Line speeds will be fast and the collisions will be fierce.
In Sydney, the Wallabies won the contact, however the opposite was true in Auckland. The side that comes out on top here will win front-foot ball, unlocking their backline.
How will New Zealand nullify David Pocock?
Line speed in defence
The Wallabies thrive when they employ super fast line speed in defence and are clinical in their tackling. Conversely, they struggle when this line speed is lacking.
The All Blacks know this and I would not be surprised to see some short kicking, pick and gos, as well as some crafty work from Aaron Smith at the ruck to try and lure the Wallabies offside.
The lineout maul
One of the Wallabies’ favourite weapons is the attacking maul, having scored four tries from them during the cup. Do the All Blacks plan to attack the Wallabies’ lineouts close to their line? Or are they going to try and out-maul the Wallabies?
Are the Wallabies going to be able to score or induce yellow cards here?
Aaron Smith
When Aaron Smith is at his best, the All Blacks are at their best. There is no other player in the world that can unlock a team the way Smith can.
The key to keeping him quiet is to disrupt and control the breakdown. Should the Wallabies fail to get the ascendancy here and fail to pressure Smith, they could be in for a tough afternoon.
Discipline
Discipline is absolutely paramount, particularly for the Wallabies, who will want to remain diligent, low on penalties, and highlight to referee Nigel Owens the traditional All Black tactic of killing momentum when they are deep in their own territory.
Australia will be hoping for an early warning and then a yellow card or two.
Mental edge
There is a fine line between being focused and having bloodlust, so which team is going to be better focused and prepared.
Cheika is renowned for his unusual motivational speeches, but how is Steve Hansen preparing his All Blacks? It is probably not too difficult given how many stalwarts of the team are playing their last games. How will this emotion manifest? How mentally clinical are they going to be come Saturday?
Not long now until we find out how good the Wallabies really are.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Biggest stat for me: TACKLES IN OWN 22 Australia: 225 New Zealand: 97 Particularly against Wales and Argentina Oz have had to endure wave after wave in their own 22. Hopefully with much sharper finishing these will be converted if the numbers are anything like that ratio.
Mhs uk
Guest
Maybe he and McCaw can share a surgeon?
taylorman
Roar Guru
Players of the year named, Pocock looks a shoe-in... The 2015 nominees are: Daniel Carter (New Zealand), Michael Hooper (Australia), Alun Wyn Jones (Wales), Greig Laidlaw (Scotland), David Pocock (Australia) and Julian Savea (New Zealand).
ebop
Guest
Credit where credit is due.
ebop
Guest
Like in 2011? Or maybe 2015 at Eden Park when he came on? In the games that count, Pocock gets 'nullified' by the All Blacks. I think nullified is code for smashed around a bit. He's going to need a good surgeon to fix that bung snozz of his after the final most likely.
Mike
Guest
"The All Blacks know this and I would not be surprised to see some short kicking, pick and gos, as well as some crafty work from Aaron Smith at the ruck to try and lure the Wallabies offside." Very good point. I think of all teams the ABs are best equipped to neutralise our line speed in defence. It will be an interesting tactical battle. Two players who will be very important to the Wallabies in this respect are Kurtley Beale and Matt Giteau.
Mike
Guest
I think the answer to the headline question is "definitely". I don't think anyone doubts that the Wallabies are CAPABLE of beating this New Zealand side. But I would still put the odds on that happening at 3:1 against. There will be a monumental battle in the forwards, especially at the breakdown. The pressure will be intense. If the Wallabies bring their A game they can at least match the intensity of New Zealand, and stop them scoring freely. Our backline is capable of scoring the necessary tries.
Mike
Guest
What "usual manner"?
Mike
Guest
Good point.
Mike
Guest
"Both sides struggled against a very strong Puma scrum, however did well against the other nations." Did you watch the quarter final against Scotland? "I would wager that the Wallabies feel they have the edge here – particularly if Scott Sio is fit and packing down." Did you watch the scrums in the last Bledisloe test?
RT
Guest
I agree, I think. Now I'm not sure.
Jerry
Guest
My answer to the question posed in this article is..... Yes. No. Maybe, I dunno.
Mook
Guest
Great article again Simon. I like the way you succinctly dissected the key facets on the game. I believe "the roar" should published more of your articles as you write very well. You have clearly played the game and annoyingly publishers have rugby writers who clearly haven't. I do feel Will Genia plays more of an important role in the outcome of the Final than you have indicated.
Simon Baggott
Roar Rookie
Nonu is in my world 15. Never has a player expanded his game so much during his career. His jink and long pass is freakish. I feel the key to this game is to keep him out of the game via intense line speed and pressure on A Smith at the breakdown.
Simon Baggott
Roar Rookie
"Take the space" - I have never heard that term before but it is perfect! Exactly what is needed.
Peter Robinson
Roar Rookie
The answer to the headline question is, of course they can. As an AB fan I'm worried about this game. There a quite a few things to worry about. 1) One of the supposed strengths of the AB's is the experience they bring to the match, experience in tight pressurized situations, experience in a world cup final. But for many of these experienced guys its the end of their All Black career, their final game. Whenever a player has a milestone game, be it 100 games for country/SR team, final game for the team etc, we often see the team and the player don't get it right, and they don't play very well. Too much emotion or too much suppressing of emotion, whatever, we see it time and again in tests and super rugby. The AB's have 5 guys in their 23 that will be playing their last game. 2) The Aussie's are innovative. Pooper is unorthodox yet very effective. They also have the gridiron style kick-offs where all players are running at full speed from 10 yds back. Very effective, hard to counter. You can bet they have one or two new things they will bring for the final. 3) Defence. The WB defence has been outstanding. Great line speed, great scrambling, great cover tackles, great goal line defence. Former WB coach Bob Dwyer rates them as the best defensive WB team of all time. With this great defence they generate a lot of pressure and they have two masters at gaining turnovers from thsi pressure. 4) Wallaby back line. You could make an argument that this Wallaby team is short on superstars in their back-line compared to, say their previous RWC winning teams. But here's the thing, there is no such thing as a bad Aussie back-line. Australian backs are just naturally good runners and passers, great ball skills..you could sum it up in one word...slick. The Aussie way has been always to get quick ball from the tackle area out to their match-winners, their teams have always had the ability to present the ball so that the half-back gets very quick ball. There is no one better at it than them. 5) Will Genia. In 2011 he was the world's best half back by a country mile. Then he got badly injured and that seemed to rob his confidence for quite some time. He now seems to be getting back to where he was, and I fear he may unleash one of those dazzling match-winning breaks. 6) Wallaby forwards. In recent times their tight five frightened nobody, it was their Achilles heel, their weakness, their soft underbelly. Cheika, with help from his assistants, changed that very quickly. They still are not a tight five that would send shivers down opposing players spines, but they are no pushovers now. Their scrum is solid, at times dominant against any team that isn't the Pumas. They have a great rolling maul, really effective considering their pack isn't monstrously big, a huge scoring threat in the redzone. The pack is very mobile, as Aussie packs always are, and their fitness levels seem very good. Their backrow is world class. Everyone knows about the skills of Pocock and Hooper, but Fardy is playing great rugby. Probably the best blindside flanker of the tournament. It will be an epic battle I'm sure, I'd love the All Blacks to win for obvious reasons and also to send their retiring legends off in style. But life normally doesn't normally work like that and the Wallabies will be playing the game of their lives. I'm very nervous about this game.
RT
Guest
Attack attack attack. Pressure the areas of supposed strength. Pressure, first step always forward. Take the space, never relax, contest everything. Make your tackles, chase your kicks. Constant sniping. That's how the wallabies can win. Btw it's how the ABs can win as well. I do agree the WB will believe they can get scrum dominance.
kurt
Guest
The only 2 teams with 1 loss this year. To each other. Its a blank page
Shrink
Guest
Pocock will nullified in the usual manner when playing the ABs. Several turnovers as that is his appointed task, but whether they lead to a defining moment or not....is/will be the question.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
I'm sorry we're not full strength. Beaver isn't even on the bench. ;) I like your points. I would add the aerial battle. Ben Smith and Kieran Read are ball winners that help NZ break up the defensive line. Israel Folau is not 100 per cent but Kurtley Beale is no mug in the air. Nehe Milner Skudder had a hard time in the rain so I envisage the Wallabies will see how he goes in the wet. The kicking game is very important to NZ. Australia is more about building phases. I think the aerial battle might prove decisive in terms of getting breaks in an otherwise hotly contested defensive effort.