My old buddy Spiro Zavos has a stock response to anybody who asks him “who’s going to win the match?” His reply is: “That’s why we’re having the match, to find out”.
And find out we will at the weekend, because anyone who thinks they know already who is going to win the World Cup is deluding themselves. It’s knockout time.
All the calculations around respective strengths and weaknesses, playing records.
Of all the great ball sports, rugby is the most given to uncertainty.
For one thing the ball is a very unobliging shape, it bounces in ways that can make the most masterful player look like an absolute dope. The rules are complicated, often contradictory and open to far more interpretation than in another other sport.
And unfortunately referees are infuriatingly human and on a hiding to nothing when it comes to adjudicating in circumstances like those faced by Craig Joubert in the Scotland versus Australia match.
In fact, the outcome of that match, and the survival of Australia in the tournament showed about as vividly as any moment in World Cup history how convoluted the rules of rugby have become and how hopelessly inadequate that situation is when it comes to success or failure. And how gormless the game’s so-called governors can be in a crisis of this kind.
Many of us were justifiably furious at the treatment of Joubert who was a victim of the very rules that World Rugby foisted upon him. That was unforgivable, and it showed precisely just how much the outcome of big matches can become an absolute lottery.
So, with all that uncertainty as a backdrop how can any sane person pick a winner? There are, however, some probabilities that can’t be ignored. One of these is that the Wallabies will do better at the breakdowns. They have a younger and quicker back row than the All Blacks, and what looked like a gamble by Michael Cheika when he decided to throw both Michael Hooper and David Pocock into the same mix has been a major factor in Australia’s success.
Although Richie McCaw has been consistently good throughout the tournament, the combined poaching power of the Aussie turnover twins will be very hard to match.
Another is that the Wallabies are arguably a yard or two faster as a collective backline. Drew Mitchell and Adam Ashley-Cooper are both seriously underrated in this regard and man-for-man the All Blacks, particularly in midfield, are increasingly challenged when it comes to outright speed.
On the other hand the All Black backs are a more interesting and innovative squad. They have an ability to conjure up some truly breathtaking moments. These don’t always end in points but they are exceptionally difficult to defend against because of the sheer dexterity with which they are executed.
It is a sign of the times that there are few players in either side who are genuinely capable of beating an opponent by sheer footwork. The All Blacks have the best player in the tournament at this in Nehe Milner-Skudder. The Wallabies have Matt Giteau who has shown that age hasn’t withered his ability to step.
Another probability is that the All Blacks will win more lineouts, or rather will steal a few off the Australian throw. All bets are off when it comes to scrums, however. Without Tony Woodcock the All Blacks scrum just isn’t quite the force it has been for the last decade and that’s something that will be keeping coach Steve Hansen awake at night.
Another probability is that the Wallabies will try to spring at least one radical surprise. It has been said of the 2015 Australian side that they lack the clever, tactically challenging qualities that the likes of Nick Farr-Jones, John Eales, George Gregan and Stephen Larkham manufactured against All Black teams that were by comparison naïve and one-dimensional in their thinking. I haven’t the faintest doubt that thought is being given to ways of jolting the All Blacks off their game.
What does all this add up to in terms of a likely outcome? Not much at all really. This is a match between the two best teams in the tournament, one of them burdened with heavy expectation of success and the other seeking to prove that all the uncertainties will conspire on the day to unseat the favourites.
Bring it on.
Ash
Guest
Actually this site is about a lot of different sport and I was just deflating the "we are the greatest sporting team ever" myth that some AB supporters like to tell me.
Muz
Guest
Well said Brisbane boys. Good luck to you
Muz
Guest
Well put Chrisp
Muz
Guest
Wrong sport ash. This site and article is about rugby.
Speckem
Guest
In most of those times slipper was having trouble, have a look at the short bind the tighthead was using... penalty australia, except refs have stopped calling them.
stillmatic1
Guest
if the game is anything like Sydney this year, the wallabies can play poorly and still win, jameswm!! before every match between the 2, the talk is always the same, but very seldom pans out that way. the wallabies just need to play with a bit more fire than the abs and good things will happen if the abs don't match them. they don't even need to put in a great performance, just ensure they play hard and be disruptive across the park. if the abs can play a mix of the French and bok finals then it should be a comfortable win, but the aforementioned fire and luck from the wallabies will ensure that doesn't happen. the first 5 minutes will give a good indication of the abs motivation to win the match. if lacklustre and a couple of early things go the wallabies way, then it is going to be tight.
stillmatic1
Guest
well being a kiwi naturally means English isn't my preferred language, cs. however, amongst the levity of your response, you clearly haven't acquiesced to my request, which going on your earlier assumption, is of no surprise. in order to make any hypothesis about a future event you need to be able to see clear patterns that presented themselves through history for a decision to be made. so considering for over a decade we have continually seen "false dawns" from the wallabies, why is it certain that they are on an upward curve? guts alone doesn't prove the performance is any better, does it? and basing your repost to me on history being no indicator of the future, how can you claim one team is on the up and the other isn't? I guess you are one of the many roarers who thought the Sydney test was a great performance simply due to winning the game, but not actually because they played well.
Graeme
Guest
It goes against the grain to disagree with an AB legend but I think the ABs go into this match as firm favourites. Form, recent history etc all points in their favour. I honestly believe another 80 full on minutes is a bridge too far for this vastly improved Aus side but the darkness are peaking at the right time and have most, if not all bases covered.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Always learning cs, when you stop learning, you die.
taylorman
Roar Guru
That's true, foley doesn't usually play well v NZ. There's a reason for that.
rick page
Guest
The All Blacks should outmuscle the Wallaby forward pack. They turn up for the really big games. They lose to the WB’s when they don’t front up physically. They will be very physical cleaning out the breakdowns. They average more turnovers per game than the Wallabies. The biggest threat for the All Blacks is handling the pressure of their own expectations. WB’s could lose the game and walk away from a still very successful campaign If AB’s lose it’s a gutting failure. That’s the significant extra, fear of failure pressure, AB teams must deal with. This is the biggest game of all, AB’s will lose if they fail to handle that pressure on the big day. WB's cant win if both play to their fullest.
Shrink
Guest
Must be growing sideways as its obvious Pocock does not have the lofty heights of McCaw
Crystal Rage
Guest
No I'm really fine and happy, Rasty. Sorry to break the news to you but your words are simply yours, owned by you just sent to another. So there is truth there but your own fears are written about yourself. Good luck with those fears. So change the "you are" to "I am" and there you will find the truth. Oh and just try and be concious of what you're doing eh.
Cinematic
Guest
Laidlaw is always reaching for the superlatives when it comes to the AB's opposition. Player for player the Wallabies simply aren't as good. The Wallaby coaching team is inferior. If the AB's play to their full potential they win. Simple as that.
stillmatic1
Guest
God doesn't need a halo my friend........
Frank O'Keeffe
Guest
Daniel, Doesn't it just feel like our long and distinguished friendship has come full circle? Our teams are playing in the World Cup Final. There is nothing higher. All the rugby knowledge we have shared with each other over the years (predominantly me educating you, of course), and now there's nothing left but our sides to do battle with one another. Nothing would bring me greater happiness than an All Black defeat. It would feel as though things have reached their full consummation. Your best friend (but you are not my best friend). Frank.
Jerry
Guest
Er... http://www.espncricinfo.com/australia-v-new-zealand-2015-16/content/story/934913.html
soapit
Guest
yep i think robinson was much fastr than he looked. they just never seemed to get near him.
soapit
Guest
the pitch they made 600 on was unplayable? perhaps back to the drawing board on that one oj
Ash
Guest
What's accurate is how many world cups the Australian cricket team has won. I'm sorry but is there another team n the world that can claim that much superiority when it counts on the biggest of occasions?