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How the new AFL draft bidding system will work in practice

Roar Guru
19th November, 2015
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A lot of talented players joined the AFL in last year's draft. (AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Roar Guru
19th November, 2015
5

The AFL’s new father-son and academy bidding system gets its first run in the National Draft on 24 November, and there is still some confusion about exactly how it will work.

Emma Quayle has written an excellent and exhaustive piece in the Fairfax media and I encourage people to seek it out.

But for those who want a more practical explanation, I thought I’d run through my understanding of how the system might actually work in the coming draft, how picks will be moved up and down, and how the point values change.

I’m no draft expert by any stretch of the imagination, but I’ve put together a mock draft of the top 20 picks based on those done by people who are. I’ve amalgamated three existing rankings: from the AFL website, Inside Football and Fairfax.

The focus isn’t on the players taken, but on the complicated arithmetic that will move picks up and down.

Hopefully this will be useful to anyone trying to wrap their head around how the new system will impact their club’s picks on the day.

I’ll be making some major assumptions, including the following:

• Academy clubs are unlikely to bid on each other’s players.
• Clubs will generally go with best available at their pick – this is mostly to avoid quibbles about what clubs need what players.
• Academy clubs will match any reasonable bids on their players.

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The main players in the academy bidding process this year will be Sydney, Brisbane and the GWS Giants, so as the ‘mock draft’ goes I’ll explain how the academy bids would impact on the draft picks held by these clubs.

At the beginning of the draft, these three teams hold the following picks that could potentially come into play.

Brisbane
Picks: 2, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 78,

Sydney
Picks: 33, 36, 37, 44, 54, 69, 72, 90,

GWS
Picks: 10, 34, 43, 53, 55, 58, 63, 64, 65, 70

So let’s begin:

Pick 1 – Carlton – Jacob Weitering
Pick 2 – Brisbane – Josh Schache
Pick 3 – Melbourne bid on Callum Mills

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Mills, who is a Sydney academy player, attracts a bid worth 2234 points at pick 3. Sydney now have to match with 80 per cent of that, or 1787 points. They are obliged to use their next available picks in the draft, which are 33 (563 points), 36 (502), 37 (483) and 44 (362).

That gives them 1910 points, leaving 123 left over. There is some confusion around whether or not this gets converted into a later pick in the draft, or whether it just gets held over to be used later on. For the sake of the exercise, we’ll just hold these points over.

Sydney are now effectively considered to have acquired pick 3, moving Melbourne back to pick 4, and every subsequent pick back one spot.

The picks used in the bidding are considered to be moved to the end of the draft. They no longer have any points value so, for simplicity’s sake, we’ll just remove them altogether. Any picks after these removed picks are now moved up accordingly.

So Sydney’s draft picks now look like this.

Sydney
Picks: 3 (Mills) 51, 66, 66, 69 plus 123 points held over

As you can see, all of Sydney’s existing picks from 54 onward have been moved three spots up in the order; back one for the pick 3 that has been created, and up four for the picks 33, 36, 37 and 44 that have been used.

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In turn, this has had an impact on Brisbane and GWS’ picks.

Brisbane
Picks: 2 (Schache), 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 75

Having already used pick 2, Brisbane’s quintet of picks at the end of the second round each get moved up two spots, while their last pick is moved up three spots.

GWS
Picks: 11, 34, 41, 50, 52, 55, 60, 61, 62, 67

It’s a bit more complicated for GWS. Pick 10 actually goes back one spot, like all the picks around this area of the draft. Pick 34 stays where it is, with the removal of Sydney’s pick 33 cancelling out the creation of pick 3. Pick 43 is moved up two spots while their remaining picks are moved up three spots each.

Phew. So that’s one academy bid, and we’ve seen the net value of the points held by these clubs change quite a bit already.

After pick 2, Brisbane held draft picks worth 2,147 points. But after pick 3 they’ve increased in value to 2,325 points. GWS’ picks, worth 3,267 points a minute ago, are now worth 3,482 points.

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Let’s plough on with the mock draft.

Pick 4 – Melbourne bid on Jacob Hopper
Bear in mind Melbourne no longer have pick 3, so GWS, who have bidding rights on Jacob Hopper, only need to match the points value of pick 4 now, which is 2,034.

After the discount is applied that’s 1,627 points the Giants need to scrounge together. Picks 11 (1,329 points) and 34 (542) will do that, with 244 points carried over.

So after their remaining selections are removed up accordingly, their picks now look like this.

Greater Western Sydney
Picks: 4 (Hopper) 40, 49, 51, 54, 59, 60, 61, 66 plus 244 points held over.

And Brisbane and Sydney are affected as follows:

Brisbane
Picks: 2 (Schache), 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 74

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Sydney
Picks: 3 (Mills), 50, 65, 68 plus 123 points held over

Pick 5 – Melbourne – Darcy Parish
Pick 6 – Essendon bid on Matthew Kennedy

The Giants academy player Kennedy attracts a bid worth 1,751 points, or 1,401 after discounting.

GWS’ excess 244 points is held over from the Hopper bid, leaving 1,157 points remaining to be matched. The Giants are obliged to use picks 40, 49, 51 and 54, leaving them with 31 points left over. The Giants now have…

Greater Western Sydney
Picks: 4 (Hopper), 6 (Kennedy), 56, 57, 58, 63 plus 31 points held over.

Let’s push ahead, with Essendon still holding the next two picks in the draft; picks that used to be selections 4 and 5, but are now 7 and 8.

Pick 7 – Essendon – Sam Weideman
Pick 8 – Essendon – Clayton Oliver
Pick 9 – Gold Coast – Aaron Francis
Pick 10 – Melbourne – Charlie Curnow
Pick 11 – Carlton bid on Eric Hipwood

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Hipwood is the first of Brisbane’s academy players to attract a bid. Carlton’s pick 11 (which used to be pick 8) is worth 1329 points, so Brisbane have to match the discounted figure of 1063.

They can do that with picks 35 (522 points), 36 (502) and 37 (483) with a combined value of 1,507 points, leaving 444 to be held over.

In turn, every pick after 11 gets moved back one spot, and every pick after 37 gets moved up by two.

Brisbane
Picks: 2 (Schache), 11 (Hipwood), 36, 37, 69

Pick 12 – Carlton – Wayne Milera
Pick 13 – Adelaide – Harry McKay
Pick 14 – Carlton – Kieran Collins
Pick 15 – Richmond – Callum Ah Chee
Pick 16 – Adelaide – Ryan Burton
Pick 17 – St Kilda – Ryan Mathieson
Pick 18 – Hawthorn bid on Ben Keays

Keays becomes the fifth academy player to attract a bid, with Brisbane having the option to match. Pick 18 is worth 985 points, so they’ll need 788.

The Lions still have 444 points held over from the Hipwood bid, so that, combined with pick 36 worth 502 points, is more than enough.

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Note that a pick is being created at number 18, and one is being removed at pick 36. So each pick from 18 to 35 is moved down one, and every pick from 37 onward remains where it is.

Pick 19 – Hawthorn – Harley Balic
Pick 20 – Gold Coast – Riley Bonner

That’s the end of the top 20, and that’s the end of the highly-rated academy prospects and those who will cause the biggest movements in the draft order. There might be some small movements up later on, but the value of later picks will stay pretty similar.

Let’s review where our three academy clubs are at the end of the top 20, and discuss what they might do from here:

Brisbane
Picks: 2 (Schache), 11 (Hipwood), 18 (Keays), 37, 69, plus 158 points held over.

Brisbane have bidding rights on several other players, most notably William, Wagner and Chol. Although it’s hard to say what other clubs would be prepared to bid, most likely they’ll keep pick 37 as a live pick. After that, they have 158 points and the 49 points from pick 69 to match any bids on academy players. After the first round, there’s a flat discount of 197 points, so the Lions could match one bid from 42 onwards.

Pick 69 began the day as a worthless pick 78, but it could end up helping the Lions snare a useful academy player.

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The worst case scenario for Brisbane is if Hipwood or Keays attract higher bids than 11 or 18, in which case they might lose pick 37. It shouldn’t stop them getting any of the academy players they want, though.

Sydney
Picks: 3 (Mills), 47, 60, 63 plus 123 points held over

The big question for the Swans is whether Josh Dunkley nominates them under the father/son rule. If so, the Swans have 123 points in the bank, plus picks worth 574 points combined, so will be able to match any bid from pick 21 on.

Otherwise, the Swans are likely to use 47, 60 and 63 as live picks, with no real standouts among their other academy players.

Greater Western Sydney
Picks: 4 (Hopper), 6 (Kennedy), 54, 55, 56, 61 plus 31 points held over.

GWS have a number of academy players who might attract bids after the top 20, so it’ll be interesting to see what they do from here. Harrison Himmelberg might attract a bid as high number 30, which they could match with picks 54, 55 and their carryover points.

Lachlan Tiziani, Matthew Flynn and Jock Cornell all have a shot at being taken in the national draft, and all have been nominated by the Giants. With the flat discount of 197 points GWS are in a strong position to take any of these players with picks 56 and 61, should they attract bids in the third round.

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As it stands though, the Giants have only four list spots available, and so can only take one player after Himmelberg, even if they have surplus points at the end of the day.

In summary, the new system makes draft picks highly fluid, with the value of the picks held by clubs changing with each bid. It looks as though each of Brisbane, Sydney and GWS have acquired all the picks they need to get the players they want, at least based on the media’s view of the way the draft is likely to play out.

Fans of clubs with picks in the teens might feel some chagrin as their picks get moved down the order, but then valuable assets have been given up in order to access the academy players. GWS traded out Treloar and a number of youngsters, Brisbane lost Aish, Redden and Leuenberger, and the Swans traded out of the first round altogether.

And most importantly, the increased number of players being taken with early picks from non-traditional football states improves the talent pool for every club, and makes it easier for heartland clubs to access the much greater resources in their own backyards.

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