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Denver Broncos facing a quarterback conundrum

Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning may have played his last game. (Image: AAP)
Roar Guru
21st December, 2015
2

For 15 weeks I have grappled with when to write about the Denver Broncos.

In the first few weeks of the season I could have written about the team’s early season struggles, Peyton Manning’s poor performance, and the outstanding play of the defence.

After the Green Bay game, in which a well-rested Manning threw for 340 yards as Denver routed the Packers, I could have written about how Manning was back, ready to lead his team to the AFC West divisional title and into yet another playoff series.

Just two weeks later I could have written about the wheels falling off. About Manning’s struggles and eventual benching. The ageing quarterback’s numerous injuries, some of which he had reportedly been carrying since the offseason yet had not shown up on the injury report, and about his decline.

A little later I could have written about Brock Osweiler’s stunning fourth-quarter performance against the previously undefeated New England Patriots. But after that game I wrote about the Patriots’ season, and mentioned how this was the Broncos’ emergence as a genuine Super Bowl contender.

A month later, that sentence seems like ancient history.

After two straight losses, the Broncos look anything but a Super Bowl contender. If they lose to the Bengals next weekend, Denver will be in serious risk of not only losing the AFC West but also falling out of the playoffs completely.

It is not unreasonable to suggest that the Broncos will finish the season with four straight losses. This comes just weeks after the victory over the Patriots, and New England’s loss to Philadelphia – a series of events that seemingly set Denver up for the AFC number one seed.

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For two weeks, Denver have dominated their opposition in the first half, only to capitulate in the second 30 minutes. And for two straight matches, the capitulation was caused by the offence.

The previous two second halves have seen Osweiler throw for just 191 yards, and the team score zero points.

The offence was forced to punt on their first six possessions of the second half of this week’s game against Pittsburgh. It doesn’t matter how good the defence is, they are going to get tired if the offence is as ineffective as it has been during the second half of matches.

And that is exactly what happened against Pittsburgh; the defenders started to lose a step or two of speed, and suddenly tightly covered receivers were only loosely covered. The pass rush that pressured Ben Roethlisberger in the first half started to slow down a touch. Roethlisberger had the time and space to find semi-open receivers and he hit his targets.

Compounding the problems, the Broncos players started slipping off tackles, allowing the Steelers to pick up first down after first down.

After this week’s defeat, the Broncos face an imminently approaching conundrum. Osweiler has been brilliant in patches – the fourth quarter against New England, the first half against Pittsburgh – and terrible in others, such as the second halves against Pittsburgh, Oakland and San Diego.

The man waiting in the wings, or more accurately the hospital wing, is one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game. But Manning is clearly not the player he once was.

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Apart from the Green Bay match, he has been average at best, embarrassingly bad at worst. During the nine games he has played this season he threw 17 intercepts. His brother Eli, a renowned intercept machine, hasn’t thrown that many intercepts in 14 matches.

Once Manning gets 100 per cent healthy, a situation fast approaching, coach Gary Kubiak, and general manager and executive vice president of football operations John Elway will have to choose between Manning and Osweiler.

Obviously at his best, Manning is by far the better quarterback; but at this point in his career Manning may never get back to anywhere near his best. Osweiler, on the other hand, is a developing and inconsistent quarterback.

Unfortunately, until Manning is thrown into a match we will not know if he is at full health, or if we will get 2013 Manning or 2015 Manning. It is a massive risk for the coaching staff, but after the past few weeks it doesn’t appear that Osweiler is capable of leading this team deep into the playoffs. Not this year anyway.

That is an important caveat, however. Osweiler might not be ready to win this year, but he will gain valuable experience playing in the postseason – experience that will hold him in good stead in the future if the Broncos decide he is their man for the long term.

Elway, Kubiak and co. have to weigh up whether the team can realistically win the Super Bowl this year with Manning behind centre. If Denver can’t, it might be more harmful to go back to Manning for the final week or two of the season, as Osweiler might perceive it as a lack of faith in his ability by those in charge and sign elsewhere when he becomes an unrestricted free agent in the offseason.

If that happens, the Broncos will be in big trouble. This year is a thin draft in terms of quarterbacks, and as it’s near impossible to find a franchise quarterback in free agency, the Broncos will be left wheeling out a 40-year-old Manning in a wheelchair, or starting a career backup.

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Alternatively, Osweiler may not develop into a franchise quarterback, and the team could waste the next two or three years with Brock behind centre.

The Broncos can’t know for sure whether Osweiler is a future star or not based on the past five weeks. The situation can go one of four ways: he either turns out good and plays for Denver, he is good and plays for someone else, he is bad and plays for Denver, or he is bad and plays for a different team.

Given the Broncos would be left with no talent behind centre next season – assuming Manning does not go around for another year, and let’s please hope he doesn’t – they are better off finding out if Osweiler is good or not while he is still wearing an orange jersey.

As always, the situation is complex. As a free agent, the Broncos have the option to use the franchise tag on Osweiler to ensure he stays with the team for at least one more year. This gives them the opportunity to consider their options for another 12 months.

But the Broncos don’t want to use that tag on Osweiler. It looks increasingly likely that they will use it on phenomenal pass rusher Von Miller. Miller is an absolute superstar that all 31 teams would love to get their hands on; the Broncos don’t want that to happen and will likely do everything they can to ensure he remains in Denver. Using the franchise tag guarantees this.

There are a number of teams desperate for an adequate quarterback to lead their team next year. That’s what happens when there are not 32 outstanding quarterbacks in the league. Osweiler is very much adequate, despite some hit-and-miss performances. There will be demand for him in free agency and teams will throw obscene amounts of money around for his services.

This is exactly what the Broncos don’t want. Denver will want to sign Osweiler to a team-friendly contract that doesn’t have a huge cap hit, and allows them to evaluate his performance after each season. If another team offers a far more Brock-friendly contract, the Broncos may have no choice but to splash some cash.

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If the Broncos sign Brock Osweiler to a lengthy, secure contract, they could be crippled by salary-cap issues and poor quarterback play for years to come. No Denver fan wants that.

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