You wake up in your bed, with a bright light flooding through the blinds into your dark room. You gaze upon a memento of your pride and joy, a picture of a smiling Anthony Minichiello.
The memento is a reminder of your undying love for your rugby league club, the Sydney Roosters.
But the replicated smile on your face disappears at the sight of your lit-up phone, it’s a text from your mate that feels the same about your team.
“Mate, RTS [Roger Tuivasa-Sheck] signed with the Warriors! Spewing!”
The face that once had the smile now poses a face of extreme disappointment. Imagine losing a State of Origin-calibre half, then go on to witness the departure of a bright young talent that would have been the perfect replacement for the pictured man in your room.
You start to think a few things, what now? How come we only managed to win one premiership with that team? I thought Nick Politis had enough money? It’s like creating an art piece that will cash you millions of dollars, only for it to be destroyed by a bunch of Kiwis and folks from the Shire.
So, how does it affect the Eastern Sydney club? Let’s break it down.
Tuivasa-Sheck averaged 0.46 tries a game from his 24 matches in the 2015 season and he also compiled an impressive 12 try assists and 15 line-breaks. Can this be replicated from potential fullback replacements in Blake Ferguson and Joe Burgess?
Both pose good stats but can they evolve into a natural fullback while also improving? This is where it may seem tricky for 100-year-old club.
James Maloney needs no evidence to back up his importance to the club in the past, even more important than the Kiwi fullback personally. However, just to note, the once NSW representative got an impressive 0.88 try assists on average per game from the 24 matches he played last season.
There’s no denying his importance to further comfort Origin representative (I’m sure lot’s of Blues fans love hearing this) Mitchell Pearce’s game, as it relaxes his kicking responsibilities and allows him to add more attacking flow to the Roosters.
Can Pearce still receive this comfort from replacement half Jackson Hastings? Maybe, but it will take time and will obviously put Pearce back in his unfavourable position of larger responsibility for his team’s kicking game.
The Sydney Roosters need no introduction for their non-spine players and barring Michael Jennings, it seems most likely that the Roosters will go into the 2016 season with all of their jewels in their crown intact. Burgess will be a quality signing and their forwards are as big and menacing as ever.
However, is it enough to overcome major changes to the spine?
There’s no doubt winning the minor premiership three years in a row should allow some room to let go of some players, but I’m sorry, Roosters fans, and to people that may find it absolutely absurd to hear, but I believe it will be a bridge too far for the red, white and navy blue club.
Sydney Roosters – top or bottom eight?
Bottom eight.
This was the first entry of the Top or Bottom Eight series, a group of articles that aims to avoid giving an overly convoluted and specific prediction while still quenching people’s thirsts for rugby league as we’re still in January.
These aren’t necessarily dedicated predictions, they dissect the biggest talking points and go on from there. More in-depth prediction articles can be found throughout the internet.
Jay C
Roar Guru
Yeah. I don't really get the love for Manly. Foran is a massive loss. Too many question marks for me.
ChrisinMonaco
Guest
The Roosters pack is maturing nicely. TKO, Napa, Evans... All babies with a year or two under their belt. Compliments the mainstay Cords, JWH, Moa, Friend and Guerra. The backs aren't as good as before, but would you not be happy if your backline included Toupo, Jennings,Fergo, SKD and Burgess ? Still a great team, Top 4
Greg
Guest
Maloney is the most successful half in the past 5 years. Played in a Grand Final with the Warriors then moved to the Roosters and won a Premiership and three straight Minor Premierships. Has been the NRL's top points scorer 2 of the last 3 years.
Dr Yes
Guest
When Tupou, RTS, Napa, Moa and Lui played their first full year of NRL, the Roosters won the premiership. Salary cap + rep level players means they were always going to lose a couple of key players this year. Creates opportunities for Hastings, Joe Burgess, Brendan Elliot and maybe Latrell Mitchell. Maloney & RTS are big losses, no doubt. RTS ran for record-beating metres, but scored 11 tries. About 20th on list of try scorers, behind fullbacks Tedesco (17) and Stewart (16). His try-assists at 15 were more impressive. Maloney can pop a pass, but was always the running & kicking half, with Pearce more the play-maker. He had very good attacking stats (18 try assists, usually popping a ball to support after fast play, running at/through gaps). But his defensive stats were terrible - most mistackles in the NRL at around 4 per game. Possible changes: fullback = -RTS +Ferguson wing = -SKD +Burgess centre = -Fergusson +SKD five-eigth = -Moloney +Hastings (though Hastings could play 7 & Pearce 6) Maybe some loss in outside backs, but could be less than many say. Fergusson can fend & break tackles, so I'd guess he'd score more tries than RTS, but with a fair few less try assists. SKD doesn't get the wraps he deserves. Is amazing at finding the tryline & has given top-class service to Roosters & Kiwis for a decade. At 27 y.o., is a mile ahead of any Rooster in history for tries scored; will easily take try-scoring record from ex-golden boot Minichiello. Having 3 fast tackle-busters in the middle backs could give a new dynamic. Burgess looks a pretty safe bet on the wing, given he's young, fast, strong & was up with top try scorers in Super League and beat good wingers to make the England side. That leaves Hastings. He's been brought on for 2 full years, so knows the coach, team and playing style. He has skill (Junior Roo halfback, etc) and looks robust enough to be an NRL half. Whether he can steer & run as well as Maloney, we just don't know but will see. In the semis last year, showed flair and nerve to take risks, a good sign. Might lose some in attack, but gain it all back in defence. Wildcard at utility: Jayden Nickorima. I think the biggest challenge is to cover Maloney's excellent goal kicking. Hastings &/or Taukieaho can't be expected to match. Forwards remain pretty darn good. When fit, JWH is a bull. Supporting props Moa, Napa, Evans are all reaching their best form. The back row is the equal of any, esp with Taukiaho having an amazing season and Aubusson as mr flexible.
Squirrel
Guest
Top 4 for sure. Great coach.
Benedict Arnold
Guest
I think that the roosters' forward will carry the lack of experience in the key positions next season and I think the loss of RTS and maloney will be quite significant. It is hard for me to put an exact number on where they will be in the top 8 but they will not do better than they did last year. RTS did a phenomenal amount of work at FB for the roosters and Maloney's goal kicking was great for the chooks. Correct me if I am wrong, but RTS ran the most run metres last year in the history of stats? Huge loss. I don't think fergo is the answer there either. He is a centre/wing and as such I think his lack of exp. will see him caught out and kicked to death next season. Defensively I can't comment on that yet, but he lacks experience there so I don't expect much. I'm just wondering with the loss of those two players mentioned will really affect the roosters attack. Will the attack now mainly come from pearce? Might be easier to defend that in 2016... I have them making the 8 and maybe they will be 8th on the ladder. I mean look at the dogs last year... amazing forwards and lacking in the key positions compared to the GF challengers; maybe the roosters season will be similar this year.
TheEroticGamer
Roar Rookie
Hi Bugs, thanks for reading and the kind words. I agree with the opinion that Roosters will have to restructure their attack, especially if Jennings does end up at Parramatta. Hastings is a great young talent and will only get better, but the question is how Pearce will be affected by this. More pressure on his play has been his downfall in the past, maybe being more experienced will have a different result. Must be an absolute gut punch from a Roosters fans' perspective when you consider the amount of grooming they did for RTS only for him to leave for the Warriors, should be interesting to see who will try to fill that void.
Bugs
Guest
Hi Jack, Good read - as a Roosters hater, I'd love to see your prediction come true, but I don't think it will. Maloney is IMO not as good as you make out, (although 0.88 try assists per game last year is awesome), nor as good as Sharks fans are hoping for. Good, but not great. It will definitely be a short term loss, to be clear. RTS' stats last year were phenomenal, and a few people have pointed out, correctly IMO, that teh Roosters changed their style to suit him and use him in the game more, which is, on top of his fine form, the reason his numbers were SO far better than anyone elses last year. In short, I think the Roosters will restructure their attacking game, bring in their centres as the point of focus (Jennings, Ferguson and Copley are all top shelf attackers), and return the FB role to a more support type role, as opposed to the centre of everything. They still have a great forward pack, and personally think they under-used players such as Jennings, Ferguson and Friend last year in terms of their attack. Love to see Friend run teh ball a bit more, throw a few dummy's, drift across field out of dummy hald etc. Top 8
pete bloor
Guest
I think everyone that rates Maloney as some messiah never watched a game he played or training session. He's a coaches nightmare.
Parrafan
Guest
Check out the Silvertails forum. Most Manly fans rate Walker as a better 5/8th than Foran. And I thought Eels fans were delusional.
Samtwocan
Guest
Dunno about not making the eight but there certainly is plenty of unanswered questions at Brookvale at the moment . Myles can be a bit of a slug week to week and the some of backline is getting a bit long in the tooth. I'd put my house on them not being in the top two.
Roy
Guest
Why do people think Manly will do so well, Walker is the only decent buy and the jury is out regarding Barret as coach. Losing Foran will really hurt them. Myles best years are behind him, I don't think they'll make the 8.
Samtwocan
Guest
Probably against the Broncos .
Samtwocan
Guest
Big call putting Manly second when no one is even sure if Barrett can coach , and you've written off the Sharks . I'll go out on a limb here and say that I think the Roosters will be a better team this year than the last two years and will feature in the grand final again.
Chris Morrison
Guest
The Roosters will fall, but not too far in my opinion. Definitely still be in the top 8. 1. Broncos 2. Manly 3. Cowboys 4. Roosters 5. Warriors 6. Rabbitohs 7. Penrith 8. Raiders.
pete bloor
Guest
Even if the back line implodes the pack will keep it top 8. Won't win the minor premiership but with that pack it should be top tier as long as Hastings plays like last year
Roy
Guest
The Roosters will still make the top 4 they may even win the whole thing.
maximillian
Guest
The spine positions are critical to any teams success so for the Roosters to lose half of theirs in a season is telling IMO. RTS in particular is a massive loss. His kick returns & running metres out of dummy half help to alleviate the heavy workload on the forwards. With the reduced interchange, those runs become even more crucial to his team. I see the Roosters slipping this season, but only as far as the bottom half of the 8.
Roy
Guest
Name me 8 sides that have a better roster than the Roosters.
TheEroticGamer
Roar Rookie
Hi, everyone. I'd just like to say thanks for reading my article. I do understand that they still have a good team, I just believe that there is close to eight teams that have more talent across the board and there's definitely eight or more sides that doesn't have to alter their play style as a result of significant losses.Don't take it too harshly, I may be wrong in the end, but I may be right also. Thanks again.