It seems that every year as the NFL playoffs roll around there are one or two teams that catch fire and ride a hot streak deep into the playoffs.
Three years ago it was the Baltimore Ravens, this year it was supposed to be the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers.
But in the space of three hours, both teams fell out of the playoff race, in very different circumstances.
The Seahawks were blown away right from the start, trailing the Carolina Panthers 31-0 at half-time before a second-half rally ultimately fell short.
The Steelers hung tough with the Broncos for 50 minutes, despite missing a number of stars through injury. Ultimately a fumble by Fitzgerald Toussaint with 9:52 left in the fourth quarter allowed Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos to drive down the field and score the match-winning touchdown.
The two teams were not the only away teams to struggle on NFL Divisional weekend. For the first time since 2005, all four home teams were victorious in the second round of the playoffs. This sets up a pair of clashes between the top two seeds in each conference on what ought to be a great weekend of football.
The Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers possess two of the best defences in football. In fact, it should come as no surprise that the four teams remaining possess four of the best defences in the league. According to Football Outsiders the Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals are ranked first, second and third respectively in defensive efficiency.
Despite the defence acting as a key pillar of the Panthers’ and Cardinals’ success, to the naked eye it appeared as though the defence was the weak link for both teams during the Divisional round. This is simply not true.
When looking back at the Cardinals’ defensive performance against Green Bay, many will immediately recall that final drive in which they allowed Aaron Rodgers to pull off not one but two Hail Marys. When talking about the Panthers, many will simply remember how they conceded 24 unanswered points and almost cost their team the match in the second half.
Both viewpoints are not entirely accurate. The Panthers defence was absolutely brilliant during the opening 30 minutes on Monday, restricting Seattle to just 123 yards. The fact that they conceded 24 points in the second has more to do with the fact that the game was over at half-time and they switched off, rather than the Seahawks doing anything special.
Over in Arizona, the Cardinals managed to contain Aaron Rodgers for much of the match and it took two pieces of Jeff Janis brilliance to force overtime on the final drive of the match.
The Cardinals defence wasn’t helped by the fact that their quarterback Carson Palmer was having a relatively poor game, by his standards, throwing two interceptions and seeing many more fall through defenders hands. If it weren’t for these picks, the Cardinals would have found themselves in a far more comfortable position heading into the final minutes.
The Panthers and Cardinals have been the two best teams in the NFC all season. It will be an incredibly intriguing match-up as two great quarterbacks, including the MVP-elect, face off against two of the best defences in the league.
If the Cardinals defence can shut down the read-option and the Panthers’ big tight ends, they will be well on the way to victory. However, if the Panthers are able to pressure Palmer into mistakes and not give the Cardinals’ wide receivers any open space, they will hold the upper hand. If both defences are able to achieve their goals, the match will likely come down to who is able to make a play when the match is on the line in the final minutes.
Over in the AFC, the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots have been the best teams in the conference all season in terms of win-loss record, but definitely not in terms of performance on the field.
Excluding the final two weeks of the season, the Patriots have been the best team in the conference by far. This is despite all the injuries, controversies and bizarre stories that have emanated from Foxborough all season.
The Broncos, on the other hand, have had some incredibly patchy performances throughout the season. There have been times when the entire season threatened to implode and midway through their Week 16 clash with the Bengals, missing the playoffs altogether looked like a probable scenario.
Despite their contrasting paths to the playoffs, next weekend will see Brady-Manning XVII in what will almost certainly be the final clash between the two greatest quarterbacks of the modern era.
For once, however, the match-up won’t be a simple quarterback duel between the two great men. Denver can’t rely on Manning to put this team on his back and carry them to victory, he is not good enough anymore and it’s simply not possible if his receivers keep dropping simple passes like they did against Pittsburgh.
Instead, the Broncos will have to rely on their defence to restrict Brady and the Patriots offence to a score low, enough that Manning is able to top.
Let’s put it this way, Manning will struggle. The Broncos will score a limited number of points on offence, with the majority likely coming from field goals. It is up to the defence to ensure that the Patriots score fewer points than this low total.
This is putting a huge amount of pressure on the best defence in the NFL. And it has been this way for the past 17 matches. There have been times in which the defence has cracked, including the recent losses to Oakland and Pittsburgh in the regular season and they came very close to cracking on Monday against Pittsburgh.
Now relatively healthy, the Patriots have the offence to crack this Broncos defence. The importance of Julian Edelman was clear for all to see against Kansas City, as he picked up 100 receiving yards and 11 rushing yards. Edelman was one of many who missed the Patriots’ first clash with the Broncos, a match in which Rob Gronkowski left the game in the fourth quarter and Brady almost ran out of teammates to throw the ball to.
Another notable absence in that earlier clash was the Patriots’ running game. New England picked up just 39 yards on the ground. The Broncos were able to take advantage of the Patriots’ one-dimensional offence, contain Gronkowski to just 88 yards and ultimately knock Brady down nine times.
With all Brady’s weapons back it is likely to be a very different story for the Patriots this time around. Despite the strength of the Broncos defence, it seems highly likely that Brady will score more points than Manning will be able to score.
The only hope for Denver will be if Manning delivers one last vintage performance, throwing for 400 yards, five touchdowns and zero turnovers. You’re right, that’s not happening, the Patriots will be the first team to book their tickets to Santa Clara.
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