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The 2016 rugby season, a year filled with so much promise and change as the start of the new four-year cycle in the lead-up to the 2019 World Cup in Japan, looms over the horizon in the southern hemisphere.
New Zealand look set to be on equal standing to their successful 2012 run-on and will be looking for more of the same in accordance from that particular cycle.
The epic final of the 2015 Rugby World Cup, in which the All Blacks beat the Wallabies 34 points to 17 to become the first ever team to retain the title, will go down in history as the most entertaining final to date.
The Wallabies definitely deserve some kudos here for their part in keeping that free-flowing spirit of the match, and rightly so. The game proved that World Cup finals don’t always have to be dour, low-scoring penalty or drop-goal-exchange affairs. Even more it promoted the game at its highest level to all those foreign to the code on a positive note, portraying the natural beauty and grace of the oval ball.
To the rugby initiated, perhaps the biggest and most important revelation of the tournament was that the All Blacks have created an even more intimidating rugby dynasty than the one they had before. It is a dynasty in which a team continually strives to better itself in every facet and technicality of the game with the main purpose of winning every contest imaginable in a way that demands respect and awe.
They play to win and they want to win the right way.
It is this set of mind, both from the players, coaching staff and, to some extent, the management at the higher levels, that will see New Zealand remain the dominant force in world rugby despite the departures of several world-class players.
In 2016 we will see no Richie McCaw, a man that held all the cards at various stages in his career as player and captain, with the Crusaders or the All Blacks.
McCaw, the greatest captain and (probably) the best player ever to lace up his boots, will leave a gaping hole in their campaign that cannot be understated in terms of both leadership and playing ability. That doesn’t necessarily mean that no one will be able to step into the captaincy or openside flanker role effectively. Kieran Read and Sam Cane have already proven themselves to be highly resourceful in those regard, but it does mean that McCaw’s absence will be felt in the type of clutch situations that he has been known to resolve.
To a lesser extent, Daniel Carter’s departure to Europe will also be felt by the teams that he has represented. Carter is a massive talent and master delegator. He has proven himself a thousand times over and a thousand times again.
Aaron Cruden, Beauden Barrett and Lima Sopoaga have all stepped up to the platform when given the opportunity, Cruden more so than the others. Yes, Cruden and Barrett’s goal kicking have at times left a lot to be desired, and Sopoaga might have shown moments of hesitation in his very short All Black career, but all of them are young and in prime position to be moulded in the Carter stage of evolution.
Daniel Carter is not a necessity and that is largely due to the ridiculous stock of highly talented fly-halves that continually seep through the cracks of a seemingly endless pool of talent that New Zealand possesses. Carter’s mental fortitude will be missed. That is a given.
The midfield combination presents perhaps the biggest obstacle for the All Blacks. Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith as a midfield combination have mixed it with the very best of opposition throughout the years and their near telepathic understanding of the other was the link that held the chain of backline play in place.
New Zealand undoubtedly possess a plethora of able midfielders in their playing stocks, but the midfield is much akin to the loose-forward combination of the forward pack in the sense that compatibility overreaches individual talent to be dominant.
An individual search for the two ‘next big things’ will be a rather short deliberation. Malakai Fekitoa, Rene Ranger, Ryan Crotty, Charlie Ngatai, Robbie Fruean and George Moala all jump into the mental page whenever one contemplates the possibilities, and so too will many others this year. However, how do you regain that solid partnership that Nonu and Smith have subtracted from the equation?
The midfield will be a point of interest throughout the 2016 edition of Super Rugby and an answer can only be found through hours upon hours of observation.
That is all that we have and that is with what we will have to make do.
Other departures also deserve notable mention. Players like Keven Mealamu and Tony Woodcock deserve all the recognition that they get, but under the wide, pixilated microscope, their replacements have already been deployed and their absences filled throughout the previous World Cup cycle.
So, with all these departures out of the way, where does that leave New Zealand rugby in terms of the future? The answer to that is relatively elementary. They will do well.
The Blues, Chiefs, Crusaders, Hurricanes and Highlanders will go into the 2016 Super Rugby season with some level of confidence and continuity. Their respective squads all scream potential champions, as do their management-staff. The Blues may be the odd one out in that particular observation given 2015 hindsight, but with big changes taking place in their coaching ranks, I’m willing to give them the benefit of a doubt.
The Kiwi Conference has traditionally been the strongest in the tournament’s history by far. Four of their five teams have been Super Rugby Champions, the high-flying runners-up of 2015, the Hurricanes, being the odd one out.
They too have the playing personnel to retain the form of the previous year, so perhaps this will be their year. Regardless of analysis, Diggercane will tell us that it will be.
I do have one concern for a Kiwi side in this year’s edition and that concern has nothing to do with doubt in their ability. Despite remaining one of the competition’s juggernauts, and despite still doing very well, the Crusaders under Blackadder haven’t struck me as a champion side for the last couple of years now.
They should have been in the play-offs last year. There is simply no denying it. The nonsensical direction that SANZAR have forced upon us, the paying viewer and their bread-and-butter I might add, shot the Cantabrains in the foot in 2015. But it is what it is, isn’t it? And in the broader view, it didn’t matter anyway. They would not have beaten either the Hurricanes or Highlanders in that final.
It’s strange that I feel this way about the Crusaders seeing as they are my second team behind the Stormers, but perhaps that is why I see fit to criticise them more than the others in their conference. The Crusaders will always be in with a running chance, they will always be in spitting distance of the title.
They have the players and they have the capacity, but I feel that the coaching of Blackadder has run its course and has become too one-dimensional. I can’t see the Crusaders winning the tournament in 2016.
The biggest mistake that the Crusaders have made is that Nemani Nadolo, without doubt a very special player, has become the strength of the team and not a strength in the team. Watching them play you almost had the feeling that they expected Nadolo to do everything. Not always, but most times.
The Chiefs, Highlanders and Hurricanes ought to do well. The Championship side will most probably come from either of these three teams, with notable mention to the newcomers, the Jaguares alongside the Waratahs and Brumbies. Of course this is nothing but a fearless prediction, it is open for debate and should be taken with a grain of salt, yet it holds a certain degree of merit that does not make it pie in the sky worthy.
For the All Blacks themselves regarding the coming of the international season, analysis is rather a slippery slope. Definitive answers cannot be found before first viewing the entirety of Super Rugby. But within me (and probably within every other rugby fanatic), there is a hopeful man. This hopeful man believes in his acute rugby intellect even though he’s been proven very wrong many times before.
To be frank, the All Blacks will retain the number one spot at the summit of the world rankings and they will be itching to reclaim the Rugby Championship from the Wallabies, who bamboozled them in Sydney in the last match of the tournament last year.
The Championship, based on the conclusion of the 2015 international season, will most likely see two key match-ups. The first will be between the All Blacks and Wallabies for the very coveted championship trophy (and for the Bledisloe lest we forget. It seems to be a pretty big deal for all of you Down Under) and the second will be between the Springboks and Los Pumas for who will grace the wooden-spooners accolade.
After that will be the Autumn Internationals versus Italy, Ireland and France in their home stadiums respectively. Before the Rugby Championship will be three Test series against Wales in Auckland, Wellington and Dunedin. More fearless predictions then. Good.
New Zealand is in a rebuilding phase that has already started with the previous one. The only question that will change the dynamic of their season is selection, which will be affected by the proceedings of Super Rugby.
Will Steve Hansen and company go for the tried and tested Sam Cane to succeed the great Richie McCaw or will they opt for players like the industrious Matt Todd or the athletically blessed Ardie Savea? Which of Cruden, Barrett or Sopoaga will succeed the master pivot, Daniel Carter, in the fly-half berth? How will they slice it in the midfield with the return of Rene Ranger coupled with the impressive showings of Fekitoa, Crotty, Ngatai and company?
Nevertheless the loss of several highly influential stalwarts will affect the performance of the team, perhaps not at a cohesive level but at a level of synergy. One does not simply lose players in the mould of McCaw and Carter without having some degree of backdrop.
The Super Rugby Trophy will remain in New Zealand this year while the All Blacks will retain the number one ranking, but will lose two games this year. Yes, two games against whom can be debatable. That is the only level of damage that I can see after the epitome of class that we have come to know from them in the past five years.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.