The great mathematicians of our time have concluded that the Cairns Taipans still have the slimmest of hopes to make the NBL playoffs, but a Sydney Kings side playing for nothing but pride could end them at the Snakepit. Join The Roar for live scores from 7:30pm (AEDT).
Cairns come into this game as red-hot favourites, despite a ten-point loss at the hands of Perth to start Round 17.
They were simply too wasteful in that game, shooting at just 39 per cent from the field and sending the Wildcats to the line on 27 occasions.
The reason they’re expected to win with ease? They come up against a Sydney side that has been abysmal on the road this season, slumping to 1-10 following their loss to Townsville on Wednesday night. The Kings led with under two minutes to play, before a lazy turnover from Marcus Thornton gave the Crocs the surge they needed, going on to win by eight.
A key to this game is rebounding. Both teams have been poor at crashing the boards this season, in particular Sydney, who managed to give up a massive 16 offensive boards to the Crocs, a sign that Julian Khazzouh’s presence is missed.
Three-point also comes into play when matching these two sides up, as they both are streaky at best from beyond the arc. Neither team is short on players who can shoot the long ball, but putting it together over the course of the season has been tough. Look for the Taipans to create open looks for Cam Gliddon, who has been shooting well in his last few games.
Sydney (84.7) average four points more do than Cairns when attacking, but their number one problem all year has been defence. They give up 91.25 points per game, the worst in the league. To put that in perspective, the second-worst defensive unit in the NBL, the Illawarra Hawks, concede 87.5 points per game.
Cairns need to exploit the Kings’ defensive woes. Sydney’s interior was shocking at times against Townsville, with Jordair Jett and co. strolling in for easy lay ups as they pleased. The Taipans also have to get big bodies in the paint to contest their misses.
For their part, Sydney need to calm their offence and not force the shot just for the sake of it. Tommy Garlepp has been hot, but he needs to keep focusing on higher percentage looks as opposed to contested mid-range jump shots. Josh Childress has been working for the foul on drives too often in recent games, and would benefit his team by looking to kick it out to the open man.
The Kings lead the season series 2-1, including their only win at their new home court in Homebush.
Prediction
With Adelaide losing to Illawarra, the door remains ajar for the Taipans to sneak into the playoffs. That should be enough to motivation to overcome a Kings side low on confidence.
Cairns by 8.
Join The Roar for live scores of this NBL Round 17 match from 7:30pm (AEDT), and don’t forget to comment if you’re following along.
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
Thanks mate. It's extremely frustrating following them. A lot of work needs to be done for the 2016/17 season
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
That's me signing out for tonight. Make sure you stick around and follow the live blog coming up on the HUGE encounter between Perth and Melbourne in what should be a cracker of a game. I'm thinking Melbourne can sneak away with this one!
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
FULL TIME LEADERS POINTS Cadee 21 Craig 20 Tragardh 18 REBOUNDS Worthington 7 Gliddon 6 Craig, Brandt, Garlepp, Faithfull 5 ASSISTS Starks 7 Worthington 5 Cadee 4
Scott Pryde
Expert
Nothing surprises me this NBL season. It has been insane, so the Taipans making the finals would just cap that off. Kings just haven't got enough talent this year. Thanks Sean.
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
FULL TIME STATS REBOUNDS Cairns 28 Sydney 33 ASSISTS Cairns 26 Sydney 12 TURNOVERS Cairns 9 Sydney 12 FG PERCENTAGE Cairns 54% Sydney 46% FT PERCENTAGE Cairns 47% Sydney 61% POINTS IN THE PAINT Cairns 42 Sydney 44
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
FULL TIME Cairns 81 Sydney 76 Man of the Match - Torrey Craig (20 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block) Sydney were gallant until the end, but just found the Taipans too much to handle. Cairns needed that win to keep a potential finals birth alive, but will be sweating on results in upcoming games.
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
Cadee misses a free from well behind the line before Childress knocks it out of bounds trying to gather the rebound. Cairns keep their slim finals hopes alive, not without a big scare from Sydney Cairns 81 Sydney 76 - 0.07 4Q
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
This one is as good as over from here. They need to try and get Cadee an open look from beyond the arc to have any hope. Cairns 81 Sydney 76 - 0.11 4Q
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
Sydney tried to force a turnover, unsuccessfully. Gliddon to shoot two from the line. Which he makes. Cairns 81 Sydney 76 - 0.16 4Q
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
Childress makes just the one. Cairns need to inbound to their best free throw shooters (which has been a tough ask so far tonight) Cairns 79 Sydney 76 - 0.21 4Q
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
Childress to shoot two vital free throws
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
Cadee takes a rushed shot before Cairns winds down the clock. They turn it over. Cairns 79 Sydney 75 - 0.26 4Q
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
Wortho loses the handle, as Sydney gains possession through the jump ball rule Cairns 79 Sydney 75 - 0.55 4Q
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
Cadee responds from long range, before Craig hits a dagger from beyond the arc. It's a shootout late here! Cairns 79 Sydney 75 - 1.17 4Q
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
Wortho with the three to get the crowd right back into this game. Kings under pressure late in the fourth. Cairns 76 Sydney 71 - 2.00 4Q
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
Craig denies Childress as the refs miss some clear contact. Childress not happy. Timeout on floor with Cairns to inbound. Cairns 73 Sydney 71 - 2.32 4Q
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
Burston converts just one of two free throws. Cairns are 6-15 for the night at the line. Cairns 73 Sydney 71 - 3.32 4Q
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
Cadee drops a big three to gives the Kings a sniff. Cairns 72 Sydney 71 - 3.38 4Q
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
Another Torrey Craig lay up forces Joe Connelly to call a timeout. Cairns looking strong now. Craig has 17 tonight Cairns 72 Sydney 68 - 4.19 4Q
Sean Teuma
Roar Guru
Teams trading buckets midway through the fourth, as Cairns hold the slight ascendancy Cairns 70 Sydney 68 - 4.28 4Q