Rubiton Stakes 2016: Where the value lies

Race 5 at Caulfield on Saturday (3.30pm AEDT) is the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes run at a distance of 1100 metres.

It is a set weights and penalties race but was run at weight-for-age from its inception in 1989 through to 2009. It has only been a Group 2 race since 2013, and started life as a listed race, before achieving Group 3 status in 1992.

Below are the past thirteen winners of the race:

2015 – Chautauqua
2014 – Lankan Rupee
2013 – Adebisi
2012 – Eagle Falls
2011 – Catapulted
2010 – Here De Angels
2009 – Mind Your Head
2008 – Here De Angels
2007 – Dance The Waves
2006 – Bomber Bill
2005 – Super Elegant
2004 – Super Elegant
2003 – Super Elegant

Notably there are some very fast short-course sprinters on this list, and it’s quite uncommon that a horse who can win beyond 1200 metres does win. 2006 winner Bomber Bill was ten years of age when he won the race, and how good was Super Elegant making it a trifecta of wins in 2005?

Pertinent statistics
1. Twelve winners were either first-up (six) or won their prior start (six).

2. Barriers two to four have provided ten of the past 13 winners, and only two have won from outside barrier six in that period.

3. Eleven winners have been aged five or older, although two of the past six winners have been aged four and have won the past two editions.

4. No fillies or mares have won in this period and only two have won since 1989.

After analysis of this race, I framed my own market (dry track prevailing) without seeing the early fixed odds, in the hope of uncovering the value in the race.

1. Éclair Choice $4.50
2. Kuro $12
3. Politeness $6
4. Husson Eagle $6
5. It Is Written $33
6. Tried And Tired $9
7. The Monstar $20
8. Red Corner $250
9. Just A Bullet $50
10. Lake Geneva $7
11. Heatherly $4

Race tempo
I would expect both Just A Bullet and Heatherly to pair off in the lead. I’m not quite sure what to expect of Éclair Choice, but he needs to utilise his good barrier (and can), while Tried And Tired might be expected to show speed with blinkers on first time from a wide barrier.

Kuro should be reasonably handy, along with Lake Geneva and Husson Eagle. I’m expecting a slightly slower than average tempo to ensue, with the likelihood of a horse closer to the pace being suited, and midfielder backmarker types disadvantaged.

Analysis

Éclair Choice
Came good with two wins to end his last preparation and they coincided with the removal of blinkers. His first-up run last preparation wasn’t really in keeping with his prior fresh runs, but it was the only start he had in that preparation with blinkers on.

He looks the horse to beat here from barrier two and his record from barriers one to three reads outstandingly at 4-3/8. From barriers four to nine his record only reads 0/5. My only real concern for him is the 58.5 kilograms he has been allocated. That means he has to be as good as Eagle Falls who actually had a Group 1 win to his name before winning this lower class race.

Éclair Choice also has to be superior to Lankan Rupee and Chautauqua and we know that probably isn’t the case. However, he might have struck a weakish field and has a lot of things going for him.

Kuro
Needs to lift on his form last preparation and has struggled to concede weight to other horses so far in his career. He goes okay fresh though and the 1100-metre distance is probably his ideal trip. Would like to have seen him drawn a little closer to the rail from a historical perspective, but his chances could be enhanced with a positive ride.

Politeness
A bit shorter in the market than I had anticipated, despite the fact she has an undeniable chance. She won first-up at this track last preparation, generally flies fresh, and she also won at this track and distance the last time she attempted it.

My query is that she just doesn’t look the typical historical fit, with her get-back style, and preference for just a little more distance. She has drawn to advantage, but is there enough pace to help her finish over the top of the leaders in the straight? On the plus side, she is the right age for the race being a five-year-old mare and is the only Group 1 winner (mares grade) in the field.

Husson Eagle
Seems the biggest ‘overs’ in the race at more than twice the price he probably deserves to be. He has won three of seven since being gelded and enjoys having his runs spaced, as is the case here.

Beyond this distance, his record reads 0/6 but between 1000 and 1100 metres he has won four and placed four of nine starts. His worst effort at the trip is a beaten 1.6 length fifth at the start of this preparation (winner Supido). The last time he raced here he won at 1000 metres and his recent trip to Queensland saw him net a somewhat surprising win, given the break between runs was shorter than he prefers.

Barrier five looks okay for him, and he can sit just off the leaders and make his presence felt. Ideally, I’d like to have seen him carry a kilo or so less, but realistically that is the penalty for his last start win.

It Is Written
Has fitness on his side but I can’t really get warm about him outside of his favourite track at Moonee Valley. A wide barrier is going to make life difficult for him.

Tried And Tired
Is definitely worth consideration and is probably going to start well over the odds. His formlines suggest he is on a par with Husson Eagle, and he has blinkers applied to him first time in this race. Barrier nine is a negative but with the shades on he might fire up early, and could possibly be sitting third or fourth early. That would give him a definite chance of winning although on a historical basis (barrier and last start) he falls a little short.

An intriguing runner because blinkers have the ability to improve a horse by a few lengths or more, and he has won coming back in distance from 1400 metres to 1200 metres in the past. He is also the fittest horse in the race, sometimes beneficial in the early carnival races. His age of six also holds him in good stead historically.

The Monstar
A very good Albury sprinter who ran well first up at Flemington, but he doesn’t appear to be well treated at the weights and has to overcome a wide barrier. He has just a bit too much of a task in my opinion.

Red Corner
Looks totally outclassed and the barrier draw has done him no favours either.

Just A Bullet
Is a stablemate to The Monstar and should be suited by an inside barrier and an ability to race right on the pace, but her last two starts have been too poor to recommend her winning this. She does have a gear change of blinkers off and tongue tie on for the first time, though, so she just might provide more nuisance value up front this time. One to throw in first fours in the hope that a moderate pace ensues.

Lake Geneva
A three-year-old filly who just didn’t produce as much as expected in the spring after an excellent two-year-old season where she placed in both the Blue Diamond Stakes and Golden Slipper. She can’t win the race on her spring performances and barrier seven doesn’t look great historically, but her best form would see her competitive. Glen Boss on is a bonus, and an inspired ride could produce dividends.

Heatherly
Second of the three-year-old fillies in the race and has been excellent in her past two wins. Her time last start over 1100 metres was excellent compared to the older horses in the 78-grade race (winner Supido) that started that meeting at Flemington.

The time was no fluke either because her last 600 metres was also far superior. She drops another five kilograms here too, which basically means she can run nearly a full second faster. Potentially she could run 1.02.50 in this race if she repeats that effort, which would almost certainly see her win.

Katelyn Mallyon rides her for the first time and I’m not sure that is a positive given this horse can get a bit stirred up behind the barriers. With only 51 kilograms here, though, Katelyn can afford to go flat out when the barriers open, and try to run the others ragged.

Three-year-olds don’t have a great record in the race, and neither do the fairer sex, but against that she is in career-best form, and we have already seen two three-year-olds beat the older horses in consecutive sprint races down in Melbourne in the past two weeks (Holler and Headwater). It’s a little concerning that her only start at Caulfield was a career-worst effort thus far, but it was only her second start in a race.

Summary
This is a really tough race to find the winner of but I think the value probably lies with Husson Eagle and Tried and Tired. Heatherly, Éclair Choice and Politeness look great chances but are probably around their right price.]

Husson Eagle probably looks the more likely winner given historical factors and he has a liking for below 1200 metres in distance, which stands out with recent winners.

Bet suggestion
I’ll be backing Husson Eagle on an each way basis and recommend saving on Tried And Tired. Trifectas and first fours look difficult but I’d hope my first six market chances provide both.

1. Husson Eagle
2. Heatherly
3. Tried And Tired
4. Éclair Choice