The starting power forwards on the NBA’s three best teams all have the same dynamic versatility to their game. They can shoot up a position and they can defend down a position.
Draymond Green, LaMarcus Aldridge and Serge Ibaka can all stretch the floor with their shooting but they’re also able to play centre and protect the rim in a pinch. That flexibility is the key to unlocking small ball, the name of the NBA’s revolution du jour.
For most teams small ball is offence at the expense of defence. Not for the Warriors, Spurs and Thunder. The defensive ability of Green, Aldridge and Ibaka allows Harrison Barnes, Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant play the four and devastate teams offensively while their team’s defence maintains its core integrity.
Two years ago Kevin Love was the quintessential modern NBA player – the big man who can shoot threes. Today he’s a dinosaur. Modernity is fickle.
In 2014 Kevin Love received third place MVP votes. Joakim Noah and Al Jefferson both placed in the top ten that year in voting, another sign of how swift and cruel the future can be. He was a franchise player, a transformative centrepiece on offence who could post-up and shoot from anywhere. He was a preternatural passer with the best outlet passes in the game. He was the best rebounder in the game for his position, a geometry professor on the glass, a genius of timing and angles.
His defence was a glaring hole in his game, but you forgive that when he’s putting up a 26-13 on 46-38-82 shooting splits with 4.4 assists per game as a power forward.
Love’s skills didn’t disappear with the move east from Minnesota to Ohio. He’s still a floor spacer, shooting threes at an above average clip. His rebounds are still in double digits and while his assist numbers have dipped, his passing remains elite. But while 18 months ago Love was almost unquestionably one of the NBA’s ten best players, it’s unclear what role he would fill on a championship contender in 2016.
The big man who can’t protect the rim is the NBA’s most awkward proposition nowadays. Just ask the Clippers. When the Warriors, Spurs and Thunder go small, where does Kevin Love fit in? He can’t play centre because Cleveland’s defence becomes a layup line.
If you play him at the four he struggles to stay with Harrison Barnes, and he has no hope against Leonard or Durant. The West’s big three teams are so good and deep now that there are few hiding spots for a big man defender on the perimeter. The Cavs learned that the hard way in the Finals, trying to hide Timofey Mozgov on Andre Igoudala, who promptly torched them on the way to a Finals MVP.
The fundamental problem with Cleveland is that in a league that prizes big men who can both shoot and defend they’re paying four big guys who don’t have that skillset. Tristan Thompson is a nice piece, an energiser bunny athletic beast who eats the glass and provides solid defence. But he’s an offensive zero if he’s not dunking or rebounding. Anderson Varejao is an afterthought at this stage, and Mozgov’s season looks like it is never going to get over its injury plagued beginning.
David Blatt was fired for so many reasons but the fundamental basketball reason is that he could never figure out Cleveland’s big man situation. That’s not an indictment on him – this doesn’t seem like something that can be figured out. Not in Draymond Green’s league.
Love still has value around the league. It’s hard to forget a 26-13-4 season just two years ago. He’s locked up for the next four seasons and he’s only 27 and should age well considering he’s not dependent on his athleticism at all.
Who says no to Derrick Favors for Kevin Love? The Cavs get their two-way big man who can play centre, protect the rim, wreak havoc on offence and grow old with Kyrie Irving as the foundation of the team once LeBron James starts to fade. The Jazz get the offensive centrepiece that Gordon Hayward admirably tries to be but isn’t quite, and they have Rudy Gobert to cover up for Love’s defensive weaknesses.
What about the package that came up on Nate Duncan’s podcast centred around Danilo Gallinari and Will Barton for Love? The recent Carmelo Anthony for Love rumours are less enticing given Melo’s knees, but you’d have to think about it. Options abound.
The numbers don’t back up the eye test with Love’s struggles. In almost 300 minutes together, the Cavs are monstering the league with their line-up of Irving, J.R. Smith, LeBron, Love and Thompson to the tune of a net rating of +15.7, a mark that would eclipse the Warriors and Spurs. When Love is on the court the Cavs are a huge 9 points better per 100 possessions, and they’re actually slightly better on defence with him on the court too. And yet, something seems amiss.
Love and James clearly don’t get on, having waged a weird passive-aggressive war through the media over the past 18 months, ranging from LeBron’s not-so-cryptic tweets last season about Love, to Love strangely saying that LeBron needed to ‘look in the mirror’ after Golden State trounced them in Cleveland last month. A trade seems like it would be as beneficial to the team structurally as it would be to Love emotionally.
There’s also the matter of Love in big games. Small sample size is the narrow argument’s best friend but it’s hard to ignore that in his last five games against the Spurs and Warriors Love has averaged 10.4 points per game on 37 per cent shooting.
The Cavs need a shake-up and Tyron Lue is not it. The Cavs are one of the league’s four real contenders but looking at the numbers and just going off the eye test, it’s Golden State and San Antonio, then it’s Oklahoma City, and then it’s Cleveland. The Cavs’ net rating is virtually half of the Warriors and Spurs.
It’s odd to call a team that is still a virtual lock for the Finals (although the Raptors are shaping up as a legitimate threat in the East) in need of a foundational change, but in a league with teams as dominant as the three in the West, Cleveland might need one. With LeBron having slipped from ‘top one’ player in the league to ‘top five’, the Cavs won’t be able paper over their cracks in June. They need a change, and Love is the wisest thing to throw in the air.
pete bloor
Guest
Yes not defending the pick and roll well will lead to an uphill battle, but so is not rebounding, so will not rotating correctly, so will giving up more “extras” in threes and free throws as will not being able to score when they get the ball. Which is why the cavs are facing an uphill battle in general against whomever comes out of the west. If they trade Love then they need to upgrade to defensive specialist on one end but also have a player with his offensive impact (With Love they are a close third behind the spurs for points per possession, without him they are down with the magic around 25th in the league.). Basically they need Anthony Davis from last year with a three point shot to be favourites against any of those teams. I do not think Davis is available. Now for those that aren’t more trustful of the eye test from limited games versus years of data if you dive further into the on/off you can see how Love, despite being a bad one on one defender helps his team on defence. Yes predictably teams shoot a higher clip with him on the floor in large part by isolating him or hitting him with pick and rolls. However in the plays they attack Love inside the arc they don’t get three’s and he’s incredible conservative with fouling. Then presumably his positioning and just caring on defence (I’m looking at you Kyrie) helps when the opposition moves the ball as his team mates defend marginally better, plus he’s probably getting attacked by the preferred option on the P&R. So on a true shooting % basis they are only very marginally worse off once you factor in fouling and three point attempts. That is where his rebounding comes in – the difference between Love being on the court (79.6% v 76.1%) is another 3.5% in team defensive rebounding that’s roughly the difference between being just under the spurs in 3rd spot or being Brooklyn/sacremento in 15th. That’s why he’s been able to consistently carve out a defensive impact on the scoreboard even if he doesn’t on your highlight reel. But the real big issue is that in getting an upgrade for the defence (at not the most needy position mind you) you take away a guy who’s o/off shows the team does everything better (passing/rebounding/hitting shots) when he’s on the floor at that end.
Boom
Guest
-- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Boom
Guest
To use those defensive metrics, it proves the old saying 'lies, damn lies and statistics". While he has decent positioning in the paint and excellent defence rebounding ability, Love's Achilles Heel is that he gets absolutely eviscerated on pick and roll coverage. This is only made worse by being beside an equally horrific P&R defender in Kyrie. Given the Cavs will face one of Dubs, Spurs, OKC or Clips in the finals, it means Love/Irving will face a non-stop diet of P&Rs with Curry/Green, Aldridge/Parker, Westbrook/Durant(Ibaka) or Paul/Griffin. If you can't defend the two man game, then it is an uphill battle to win the big prize.... -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
pete bloor
Guest
I still see all of those guys as a down grade for the minutes you aren't playing small and do we honestly think they are beating the warriors, spurs or thunder by matching them all the time when they go small. Yep you need to be able to chip a line up in when momentum swings but part of it also ahs to be having an option which can force them out of the small ball lineup. to me trading Kyrie for a serviceable wing and an offensively challenged big man would do more to give the Cavs a lineup that forces the opponent to match it rather than just hoping LeBron bails out the mismatch at the other 4 spots.
astro
Guest
Agree 100% about the Cavs 'terrible wings'...Its insane about how much this team needs Richard Jefferson. I thought we all knew about how build a team around Lebron? The Heat showed us...3 shooters and a big man with an outside shot, and ensuring all are average to good defenders. Lebron's size and abilities take care of the rest. The only reason why Love cant play the 5 for this team, is they don't have an adequate wing to space the floor and defend the opposition big (think Shane Battier at Miami). But Love should be fine at the 5. I understand his inability to defend the rim, but Draymond is hardly Dikembe Mutombo. That's the problem with a Favors for Love trade...who plays the four? But the Gallo/Barton or Melo trades look better to me...they make more sense for who needs to play alongside Lebron. Similarly a Crowder/Bradley and whoever else for Love, works.
pete bloor
Guest
I agree a mobile shot blocker is the piece missing but giving up your floor spacing passing big who is a net positive on defense to get him is subtraction by addition. The perception is that Love is a negative on defence and it stems entirely from his man to man or shot blocking. The fact is that in a team concept Love has been a positive defender since ESPN started their real +/- (and he was before that but the site I used has been shut down). He was top 10 in PF with 30+ minutes (arbitrary starter cut off) every year, and top 15 in PF with 24+ minutes (arbitrary core rotation player cut off). He’s not in the defensive specialist category but he’s outranked Taj Gibson the past two years. The reason is he has good positioning, makes good reads and get rebounds. Rebounds are completely overlooked when people think of defence for big men and Love has the highest career defensive rebound rate of any active player (and is a pitiful second behind the Worm all time) So you’ve got a guy who rebounds like Denis Rodman but can shoot, score inside and pass. Sounds terrible. If you trade Love for the defensive stopper, not only have you treat the symptoms of your defensive problem (rim protection) rather than the cause (Small children could score on Irving, who after pulling together one year of just being a mild negative has reverted back to his previous state of being a immolated bag of dog droppings). And to get that band aid solution you have to throw out your offensive spacing and rely on Kyrie Irving being a genuine elite player – which he isn’t. The issue on small ball with Love at the 5 is that the cavs play more of their terrible wings and their two best two way players out of a position. Simply getting a worse PF to move to the 5 to defend a bit better isn’t going to stop the wings getting eviscerated.