The Canberra Raiders have been a virtual non-entity in the league for over a decade, but ahead of 2016 they have quietly assembled a very impressive squad.
2015 in review: Missed it by that much
2015 was the year of ‘missed it by that much’, as the Raiders fell agonisingly short time and again, particularly at home.
On six occasions the team took a lead into the final ten minutes of a game, but ended up losing. On four of those occasions they were tied or had the lead with less than two minutes to play.
However, this was a team with few expectations entering 2015. Four of Fairfax Media’s ten NRL experts picked them to finish last, and none had the team higher than 11th.
Happiness is a function of expectations and if Raiders fans had been asked this time last year whether they would have taken tenth place and colossal improvement, I suspect most would have accepted it.
Offseason story: Re-signing the core
In a productive offseason, the club extended the contracts of several key players. Blake Austin, arguably the signing of the season, upgraded his deal and added a year. Key prop forward Shannon Boyd, probably Ricky Stuart’s biggest success in terms of player development at the club, went from the NSW Cup scrapheap at the end of 2013 to extending his deal until the end of 2018.
Josh Papalii, the club’s only regular State of Origin player, also added a year to his deal, and in a colossal relief for all Raiders fans Jack Wighton resisted the lure of the Sydney beaches to extend in Canberra, also until the end of 2018.
With captain Jarrod Croker and new recruit Aidan Sezer also under contract until the end of 2018, Canberra now has a core group of players locked and loaded for three full seasons.
READ THE ROAR‘S FULL 2016 NRL PREVIEW SERIES HERE
Roster management
2016 gains: Adam Clydesdale, Jeff Lima, Zac Santo, Aidan Sezer, Elliot Whitehead
2016 losses: Mitch Cornish, Joel Edwards, Jeremy Hawkins, Andrew Heffernan, Josh McCrone, Mark Nicholls, David Shillington, Dane Tilse, Bill Tupou, Glen Buttriss
The big news is the signing of Sezer from the Titans in April last year, which meant an agonising three months for Raiders fans until the June 30 deadline passed and the half was confirmed with his new club.
Sezer is joined by two Super League recruits at either ends of their career, with young Englishman (and star of the recent Test series against New Zealand) Elliott Whitehead about to embark on his first foray into the NRL, and veteran prop Jeff Lima to have one more run around after a number of years in the UK.
On the other side of the ledger, the now traditional Stuart roster overhaul that begun with the veteran coach’s arrival after the 2013 season continued this summer, as a further ten players departed the club. Incredibly, of the 30 players who played for the club in 2013, the last year before Stuart took over; only eight remain at the club.
However it’s worth noting that only one of this season’s departures, David Shillington, was a regular first grader in 2015.
Josh McCrone did begin the season in the top team but was soon dropped to NSW Cup, and then signed by the Dragons in one of the last things recruitment guru Peter Mulholland did before leaving the Dragons to join… You guessed it, the Raiders.
Of the rest, only Mark Nicholls and Jeremy Hawkins look like they may come back to haunt the club, having both moved to Melbourne, a team revered for their ability to extract the most out of their players.
Likely line-up
1. Jack Wighton
2. Edrick Lee
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Joey Leilua
5. Sisa Waqa
6. Blake Austin
7. Aidan Sezer
8. Frank-Paul Nuuasuala
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Paul Vaughan
11. Josh Papalii
12. Sia Soliola
13. Shaun Fensom
14. Adam Clydesdale
15. Elliot Whitehead
16. Jeff Lima
17. Shannon Boyd
This is largely the same team that closed this season in 2015, with only Sezer, Lima and Whitehead coming into the team, for Sam Williams, David Shillington and Jarrad Kennedy respectively.
Sezer will be hoping for an injury-free season after playing only 13 in 2014 and 18 in 2015. But the good news is that the numbers suggest Sezer will be an excellent complement in the halves to the techno-viking Austin. While not necessarily a pure playmaker – his seven try assists and seven line break assists are modest numbers for a halfback even when accounting for his reduced number of games – he is an outstanding game manager, with a particularly good kicking game, an area where Austin is not as strong.
Sezer’s arrival means Williams is relegated once more to NSW Cup despite a much improved season 2015. Still just 25 years old and coming off a season in which he has 15 try assists in just 16 games (a better per game rate than any halfback not named Johnathan Thurston), Williams will no doubt attract attention from other clubs if he continues to languish in reserve grade.
The back line is straightforward, and while Jordan Rapana can consider himself unlucky to be squeezed out, there is no position available for him. He and young wrecking ball Brenko Lee will have to content themselves with shredding NSW Cup opposition to begin the season.
The biggest selection battle is in the backrow, where English international Whitehead will initially compete with Jarrad Kennedy for a bench spot behind established starters Papalii, Shaun Fensom and the halfback assassin Sia Soliola. Kennedy, who was a mainstay in the team in 2015, will be under intense pressure to retain that spot and probably needs to figure out a way to consistently catch a short ball at the line to be a truly effective first grader.
Beyond those five contenders there is also Mitch Barnett, last year’s NSW Cup player of the year, and Luke Bateman, a power lock in the mould of Trent Merrin who has played in every age group Origin team for Queensland.
In addition to the players already on the roster, there are also persistent rumours that the Knights may release Joe Tapine a year early and allow him to take up his new deal in Canberra, which is currently slated to start in 2017. Tapine would only add to the selection challenge.
While Kennedy’s position in the team is the most under threat, don’t be surprised if Fensom also begins to fall under scrutiny. Renowned for his defensive work rate and toughness, Fensom sadly offers little in attack on a consistent basis. In an era where the lock position is increasingly filled with colossal ball runners like Jason Taumalalo or skilled ball players like Corey Parker, Fensom cuts a more modest figure. Whisper it, but if Fensom can’t find locate an elite attacking game he may come under the microscope as the season progresses.
Meanwhile, if the backrow is stacked the front row looks a little thin – if only figuratively (no front row that includes gentle giant Shannon Boyd could ever honestly be described as ‘thin’). With the departure of Shillington at the end of the year and the Ent Dane Tilse mid-season, the team will be relying on Boyd, Paul Vaughan and the two veterans Frank-Paul Nuuasuala and Lima, with little depth behind those four.
There were rumours that the club was chasing any number of players from James Tamou to Junior Paulo for 2016, but none of that has materialised. As such, if the club loses either Boyd or Vaughan for any significant period of time, they will likely struggle.
Player to watch: Jack Wighton
Wighton had a mixed 2015, as he adjusted to the fullback role after previously playing every other position in the backline over the course of his short career. After pinch hitting in at fullback towards the end of 2014, Wighton made the shift fulltime to begin 2015. He started brightly enough, with a man of the match performance in Round 1. However as the season went on he tended to drift in and out of games.
His running metres were generally solid, averaging a tick under 140 metres per game, but his overall attacking contribution in terms of tries scored and created, along with line breaks he either made himself or set up for others, was mid-pack among regular fullbacks.
But the ability is clearly there. Coaches who have come in contact with him in rep environments such as the Country team or emerging NSW camps rave about him. Stuart has been quoted as saying he wouldn’t trade him for any other fullback in the competition, and you need look no further than his wonderful performance in Townsville in Round 23 last year to see Wighton’s raw potential. Raiders fans will be hoping that in 2016 Wighton can deliver on that promise on a more consistent basis.
Predicted finish: Fringe of the eight
Overall the squad is better, despite the modest number of signings. Indeed, the relative stability of the top 17 will help as they incorporate a new halfback. If the big men stay healthy, Sezer gels quickly with his teammates, and Wighton takes the leap that he is clearly capable of, this team could make some noise.
However depth in the front row is a large (pun intended) problem, and the reality is that the team’s defence was at times horrendous in 2016. Moreover, the teams around them on the ladder have all largely improved as well.
The team certainly has the talent to make the eight, and may even surprise a la the Panthers of 2014, but it is too early to lock them into a top-eight spot.
Brad
Guest
I honestly think Adam Clydesdale is there to aid with the development of some of the up and comers at the Mounties, IE give them a good experienced playmaker to work with to replace McCrone (yeah everyone hates him but he was definitely the best playmaker the Mounties had) I liked Adam Clydesdale at Newy, he tried hard and had some gutsy performances, but on fair-dinkum street, he's not an NRL level playmaker anywhere except Newcastle. Maybe Gold Coast.... or Leichardt.... Or Parramatta
Brad
Guest
Love the passion Duffman, and can deffo relate. Cronullla have also not been in a GF since well before 94, as you said yourself 97 superleague doesn't count. Personally I think between the Raiders and the Bronco's SL probably had 80% of origin players and was the stronger comp
zim
Guest
Cheers. I've since re-evaluated my wing choices. I thought Waqa had a bit of a shocker and Rappa seemed to be the best winger during the 9s and the trial but he's always got those suspect hands which are a worry. Waqa being kept on the field even after the slight neck injury makes it seem pretty obvious that Rapana and Lee are rated ahead of him. I got the forwards wrong. Boyd was a colossus in the knights game. Sticky really has a headache now. You have to start Whitehead and Paps but what do you do with Soliola and Fensom? Soliola was dynamic in the middle. I'll stand by the original choice of Feno at lock and Sia bench prop but geez it feels wrong to not have Sia in the starting 17. If we had 4 excellent props I'd start Sia at lock and Fensom might even end up in reserve grade, but as we don't Sia on the bench as impact in the middle and Fensom at lock for the full 80. Oh and I think Baptiste has the bench hooker spot wrapped up. He's improved over last year. Clydesdale was not good at all in the trial and picked up an injury that puts him in doubt for round 1.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
Shout out to zim for being spot on so far with what the Raiders appear to be doing. Looks like Pap is indeed going to be switched to the left edge. I really liked Sia over there defending alongside Croker who remains a poor defender but Pap will create all sorts of opportunities for Croker to get the ball in space whereas Leilua can do it on his own.
Jack
Guest
The Raiders will always struggle with an effective salary cap lower than top teams. Brisbane can pick off any Queenslander we develop by offering more money. There is little chance of third party sponsors in a Government town. The biggest local business is the Raiders. For this year there are still the coaching and tactical weakness to overcome. The edge defence was a problem for us all year and that has to be addressed of the top 8
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
And just who are the top teams Jay C? Cowboys, Broncos? The answer is yes based on last year's form. Roosters? Don't think so with the loss of Maloney, RTS and uncertainty over Pearce. Now I'm starting to struggle. I reckon the Dogs and the Bunnies might be lucky to make the 8 this season. The Sharks, Manly, Raiders and Warriors will be the big improvers IMO. My top 6 are Broncos, Cowboys, Manly, Sharks, Raiders and Warriors.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
I personally prefer Papalli at 60 minutes than 80 minutes. I think he has more punch when he plays fewer minutes. I also don't really like Soliola in the middle unit. Sure he can play there but I don't think that's the best fit for him.
zim
Guest
This is what I would run with. Sia coming off the bench at prop. Tapine comes on for Whitehead. 1. Jack Wighton 2. Edrick Lee 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Joey Leilua 5. Sisa Waqa 6. Blake Austin 7. Aiden Sezer 8. Paul Vaughan 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Frank-Paul Nuuausala 11. Elliot Whitehead 12. Josh Papalii 13. Shaun Fensom 14. Adam Clydesdale 15. Joseph Tapine 16. Iosia Soliola 17. Shannon Boyd
zim
Guest
They'll both adapt fine I think. Either way it's already been stated what stick wants to do so there's not much point discussing them staying where they were in 2015. I'd be hesitant to not have a QLD rep that can play 80mins on the field for the full game. Soliola is a good player but he isn't as good as Papalii. Yeah Mitch and Luke are still not "Big Men" but they are much improved on last year. They'll both probably spend most of the year in Mounties anyway with Whitehead and Tapine now at the club. JK probably is ahead of them for a middle position due to the 50 games experience. Batemen is going to end up being an Aiden Toleman / Paul Gallen style forward. He'll never be the biggest but he has a massive motor. Hopefully we nail down Junior Paulo for 2017 and we can leave guys like Lima out of the side.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
Not sure I like the idea of moving both Soliola and Papalli out of their preferred positions. Certainyl Papalli has played a little on the left edge but he's always been better on the right edge. Plus Soliola is a better 80 minute player than Papalli. I actually really like the idea of Whitehead getting 15-20 minutes behind Papalli on the right. I suspect Mitch Barnett and Luke Bateman are both still too small to play many minutes as genuine big men at this stage though Barnett's sheer ferocity may help him if they decide to use him there.
zim
Guest
Odd to see an article on the Raiders where the person actually knows what they are talking about. Kudos. Sticky was recently interviewed and Whitehead will be playing on the right edge. Paps was moved to the left at the end of the year and Sticky's also said he won't be moved into the middle. The edge is his spot. I'd say we start the year with Paps on the left edge with Sezer and Soliola on the right edge with Austin. Whitehead coming off the bench for Soliola. As Whitehead gets that fitness happening he moves into the starting side. As mentioned we are lacking in the forwards. Jarrad and Rhys Kennedy, Mitchell Barnett and Luke Batemen have all been training as mobile middle men. They've all bulked up over the off season. I think JK actually plays his best football in the middle doing the hard stuff. All except Rhys (still a mounties player) could see 1st grade time in the middle this season. No idea where you fit Tapine in all this. Soliola could easily move into the middle. Guy has no fear, hits like a truck and has a high work-rate.
Kingcowboy
Guest
Duff don't agree with everything you wrote but I love your passion for your Team. I just can't support your team due to the coach you guys have. King of excuses that man!
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Good to hear mate,I hope your over your heartache from last year-I like everyone thought you were home...blast that fat lady! Glad your well,your boys look very strong this year,good luck...bring on the footy!
Jay C
Roar Guru
Hey mate! Nahh, sitting on a beach in Zanzibar at the moment. It's a pretty tough gig, but someone has to do it i suppose. Just finished a safari in Kenya which was awesome. Lions and what not. Looking forward to the season kicking off and Brisbane going one better!
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
The prodigal son has returned!Hope ur well Jay C...are you back in Aus yet?
Jay C
Roar Guru
Cannon fodder for the top teams. Let's be realistic.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
I can understand people are sceptical that Fensom is under threat but its worth noting that he was actually dropped to the bench early in the year last season so he's not immune. His defensive contribution is enormous of course but if you can get 75 or 80% of that defence with a lot more attack then perhaps that's a trade off they're willing to consider. You only need to look around the league and you won't find many teams that have an 80 minute lock who isn't either a ball player or a power runner. I'm not necessarily saying he will be dropped or even that he should be, just acknowledging that players like Bateman, Barnett and even Kennedy and perhaps Tapine will be breathing down the necks of all three back rowers.
Brin Paulsen
Roar Guru
Nice review Lachlan. Cheers The Raiders look like a team that could be on the cusp of something special. For mine, Sezer looks like an ideal partner for Austin in the halves. Part of what makes Austin great is his one-man show performances but often that comes at the expense of a more cohesive and organised attack. If Sezer can stay healthy he should be able to lead the rest of the team around and provide Austin with the ball he needs to do his thing. There is firepower in the backline and Wighton could be anything. The forward pack is full of blokes bursting with potential, some of whom are surely on the fringes of representative selection. I do agree that the Raiders may be tested a little for depth if a few injuries strike up front though. Also, I think you're wrong about Fensom. Sure, it'd help if he could find better lines to run on the edges of the ruck or add an effective offload to his game but his defensive contribution to the team is invaluable. My primary reservation with this team is, predictably, the coach. Stuart has complained before about not having the cattle to really compete against other teams but that argument won't wash this year. Stuart needs to find a way to help the younger players improve. Talent is all well and good but as the blown finishes last year have shown, sometimes you need smarter decision-making and a cool head. It'd be nice if the coach displayed some of those traits once in a while...
American Dave
Guest
Pretty sound thinking in the preview. The only question I would raise is whether Fensom's place would be under threat. The Raiders seemed to have the attacking aspect under control which, as you mention, should benefit from a consistent Austin / Sezer halves pairing. It was the defense that let them down so often. I just can't imagine their defense improving so much that the can bench an 80 minute tackling machine. I do think it could be a good year for the Raiders (standard caveats about player health, playing to potential etc).
Duff Gardens
Guest
Been a Raiders fan since 1988. Being a Raiders fan is such hard work that you should get paid for it. They are pretty much responsible for all of my grey hairs. You nailed it with this line - "Happiness is a function of expectations and if Raiders fans had been asked this time last year whether they would have taken tenth place and colossal improvement, I suspect most would have accepted it." But therein lies the reason why the Raiders have been irrelevant for two decades, not the one you mentioned. The Raiders haven't mattered since the 1996 season. Since then we have made the top 4 once and have never got past the second week of the finals in a full competition (1997 Super League prelim doesn't count). In fact - we are the ONLY team since 1997 to have not featured in a preliminary final of any sorts - and the only team in the NRL other than the Titans to have not featured in a grand final since 1994. But - your stated 'acceptance' of Raiders fans to have some jubilation in finishing 10th is exactly the problem of the club. For years, nepotism and incompetence has plagued our board. Not once have I heard anyone on the management side of our club talk about competing for a premiership - it seems to never be part of our vision. Hell, even Parramatta will publicly state, probably to the giggles of most, that they intend to win a premiership within a certain window. This desire to just make up the numbers trickles down from the club's top brass and has permeated through the fanbase. Raiders fans don't just accept the team's mediocrity - they revel in it. Dare to voice opinions online that the Raiders should demand better - from the club board down to the coaching and players - and that we fans should be the ones voicing our objection, and wow you should see how you get hailed down. Dare to want more from this team and you get banded as disloyal, told to follow another club and many variants of this with many variants of swears. As the Raiders' board is not voted on by club members, and club members are not members whatsoever but glorified season ticket holders - there is not much Raiders fans can do but vent. And when you vent you get met with a torrent of abuse. I think things could be turning around however. The Raiders have recruited smartly for the first time in decades (remember when we signed the best hooker in the league to be our halfback...) and have aggressively been poaching other teams' junior talent rather than having ours pecked off and just sitting there whining about it. That kind of Ricky Stuart aggression is what we need (his coaching - I am still skeptical but remain childishly hopeful he can turn us around). Ricky's anger last year about our lack of coverage etc was good too. Sure it was indignant - but someone at the club needs to start demanding some attention. Time for the players to do the same by stringing together wins and playing football that Channel 9 can't say no to. But what I want now is more boldness and aggression from the board. It is time to boldly state that the Raiders are no longer a club happy to be in and around the bottom of the 8 and be content with simply not losing as many games as people expected us to. It is time to get out of the mire and put the club back on the map. Between 88-95 the Raiders were often talked about, always on TV and other than the Broncos were probably the most covered club in the league. That can happen again - but it needs a top down effort from the club to put the Raiders back on the map.