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The Magpies have an interesting season ahead. To put it bluntly, I think they project as a mid-table team. If I was pushed to be specific, I would say I don’t think they will make finals, they will finish ninth.
With teams around the bottom half of the top eight and just outside the eight like Collingwood, injuries and the fixture will play an integral role in where they finish on the ladder.
However, the implications of missing or making the finals could be vast for this team.
Best 22
Backs: Tom Langdon, Nathan Brown, Marley Williams
Half-backs: Jackson Ramsay, Ben Reid, Jordan De Goey
Centre: Levi Greenwood, Taylor Adams, Steele Sidebottom
Half-forwards: Jack Crisp, Tyson Goldsack, Travis Varcoe
Forwards: Jamie Elliott, Travis Cloke, Jeremy Howe
Followers: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar
Interchange: Dane Swan, Tim Broomhead, Adam Oxley, Jarrod Witts
The make up of the best 22 I have constructed is interesting for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the team as a whole is still pretty young. This is especially true for the nine nominal midfielders of whom only Pendlebury and Swan could be considered veterans.
This bodes well for the future, and for Pendlebury’s hopes of playing in another flag before he retires.
Additionally the team is relatively small across the board. In the backline Nathan Brown will play full back and I have Reid playing centre half back. Certainly his best football has been as a defender and I believe his recent data still projects as being in Collingwood’s best 22.
Perhaps controversially I have not put Jack Frost in this defence. Although he does work reasonably well as a traditional purely defensive back I don’t think he generates enough offensively to push out Reid or Brown as the two key defenders.
The third tall in this line up then is Langdon, who probably plays more of a running half-back role than a third tall per se but at 190cm I think he can certainly fulfill this role and projects as being a more consistent ball-winner in that role than the ageing Alan Toovey.
I also have De Goey playing off half-back despite being classified by some sources as a mid/forward. To compensate I have Oxley on the bench who I found classified as a genuine midfielder but whom I know has played a bit off half-back.
In the forward line the Magpies are strong but again small. Cloke for mine just barely qualifies as in the best 22 in terms of overall value versus all positions, but he would probably have to get picked for structure and balance purposes even if he didn’t.
In the second key forward post I have Tyson Goldsack. I realize he is not a key forward in the real sense but he is too much better than the next option (Jesse White) to leave out, and the players who make up the forward line in the other roles are also among Collingwood’s best players.
Although a spine with Goldsack at centre half forward looks thin, Jamie Elliott and Jeremy Howe fill the small and third tall roles. Neither player is especially large physically but they are excellent aerial players and so this forward line should not lack in terms of contested marking presence.
Brodie Grundy and Jarrod Witts form a great young ruck duo and can also come in and out of the forward line to provide a strong physical presence if required.
Perhaps the players left out of this team, some of whom I have already mentioned, are as significant as the ones I included.
It would potentially be too exhaustive to go through each of those players individually but I would happily invite all those skeptical, disgruntled, bewildered and flat out angry Collingwood fans to tell me why I was wrong to leave them out.
Best midfielder: Scott Pendlebury
Should I even add anything else? There’s not much else to say. Pendlebury has only really had Swan as a rival for best player at the club for a long time now.
Typically the argument among fans has been between Swan as a volume ball-winner and Pendlebury as a more efficient if slightly less prolific possession gatherer. In 2015 they both averaged almost the same number of touches and in 2016 Pendlebury should surpass Swan.
It is worth noting also that while Pendlebury has a reputation as a classy or patient and clean ball user, he is a dominant tackler and clearance player meaning his inside work is as prolific as his outside work.
He is a top ten player in the league and should maintain a presence in the league’s top 50-100 players well into his 30s.
Best defender: Tom Langdon
At 21 years old my modeling suggests Langdon should improve in all major categories in 2016. He’s also 190cm and runs and generates offence well.
There are some candidates in the back line that others will no doubt place ahead of Langdon. Firstly, the two primary key defenders for 2016 should be Ben Reid and Nathan Reid with Jack Frost serving to back those two up. Reid at one time would certainly have taken the mantle for best defender at the club but injuries have probably ensured he will never reach the peak that might once have been expected.
Brown and Frost are serviceable but they simply do not do enough offensively to be considered ahead of Langdon. In the modern game the reality is defenders are responsible for more than just guarding an opponent. Due to the way the ball moves into the forward line and the way players are rotated through various positions, players who play exclusively defence will inevitably be exposed.
Alan Toovey is another player who people will think should be in this team. Physically he and Langdon are similar and as a tackler and spoiler Toovey is probably superior. Statistically however Toovey is in decline and he has never been as effective at winning the ball as Langdon is now.
Langdon projects as a player who can take five or six marks and collect the ball over 20 times a game, he also tackles more than three times a game and spoils the ball the same number of times.
This makes him as dangerous offensively as defensively and his size and speed means he can play on a variety of opponents.
Best forward: Travis Varcoe
Varcoe is an interesting player. I think there’s a perception that he’s over the hill but he will turn 28 during the season, which actually puts him right in the prime of his career. This prime will probably not last much longer, but he should get credit for coming to a new club and having a very good 2015 season.
My projections suggest that he should essentially maintain this form in 2016 and then decline thereafter. This means he will collect around 18 touches a game, take four or five marks and very importantly lay just over four tackles a game.
The Collingwood forward line is for all intents and purposes a fairly strong unit, Jamie Elliott in particular is a strong candidate for the role of best forward at the club. I expect Elliott will improve in 2016, he will no doubt mark in the forward line at a higher rate than Varcoe as well.
In fact you will probably find that Elliot kicks more goals but as an all-round presence – defensively and offensively – I think Varcoe is superior. Moreover I don’t think Elliot wins the ball enough to be a threat as a high half-forward midfield conduit as well as closer to goal – but he will eventually, and projects long term as an outstanding player.
Other candidates in this part of the field are obviously Cloke and newly traded Jeremy Howe. Cloke statistically is in decline albeit still a very effective contested mark and is coming from a once-elite peak.
He is a necessary complement in this forward line because of the type of player he is but is no longer the most effective player in it.
Howe is a curious case. He has a lot of potential and could hurt opposition defences in a variety of ways. It is difficult to project his form though, as he has played as a defender in recent years. In that role he projected as a roughly top 50 defender in the league, which is fairly unremarkable.
As a forward I know many have suggested they want him to replicate the type of role that Jack Gunston performs at Hawthorn. I think however this lofty expectation is probably unrealistic and supporters should expect more along the lines of someone like Andrejis Everitt with a bigger leap.
Biggest strength: Midfield youth and depth
The midfield at Collingwood is virtually as good as it gets. Swan and Pendlebury, despite being at the wrong end of their careers are still truly elite. Sidebottom and Taylor Adams are different in style but both young and provide quality outside and inside respectively.
Add to this mix the unexpected improvement of Jack Crisp, the fact that players like Oxley and D eGoey have been given senior experience, Levi Greenwood was not at full strength in 2015 and the improving ruck combination, and you have the blueprint for long term midfield dominance.
All of this is separate from the trading coupe that has seen the club recruit Adam Treloar. In Treloar the club has managed to find the rare combination of inside/outside class as well as get a young player with senior experience.
Add in finally James Aish as a top 10 draft pick yet to demonstrate his potential and you have to conclude that Collingwood not only have a strong 2016 midfield but a midfield group that looks like it has a long and bright future.
Biggest weakness: Key defensive depth
Since losing Lachlan Keeffe to suspension a lot of pressure now goes onto Reid, Brown and Frost to stay fit and play key defensive roles. Goldsack is often thrown back but probably lacks the size to play on key forwards.
There are players in the VFL who might improve and make a case for themselves however as far as demonstrated quality and experience there are simply not many options at the club for specific key defensive positions.
Brown in particular has done this for the club for a long time now and is among the most reliable key defenders in the league, however injury is always a concern and there is greater pressure on him than perhaps ever before to ensure he is available every week.
Likely wins: 10-12.
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