Call it ‘The Curse of Drake’. When Toronto’s marquee rapper and Raptor ambassador bragged on his 2013 track Tuscan Leather that he “reached heights that Dwight Howard couldn’t reach” it meant something.
Nothing was the same for Howard after 2013. His decline had already begun by that stage, coming off a damaging season of underperformance in Los Angeles where his undying desire to chill burned in the flames of Kobe Bryant. But Howard was still a star, a no-brainer max contract player who earned third team All-NBA honours in 2012-13 after five consecutive first team nods. There were still few that could scale his heights. In 2016 though, the rest of the league is looking down on Howard.
For the NBA community Howard’s decline has been as steep as it’s been enjoyable. Nobody likes Dwight Howard. He’s a diva, the architect of the ‘Dwightmare’ – a recurring Florida melodrama where his indecision over leaving the Magic became as confusing as it was nauseating. He tried to get Stan Van Gundy, one of the league’s best coaches, fired because he didn’t like him anymore. He abandoned Orlando, screwed Brooklyn, jumped ship in L.A. and hasn’t delivered in Houston. And worst of all, he’s done it all with a smile on his face.
People don’t like Howard because of the perception that he just doesn’t care that much about basketball. Like Shaquille O’Neal but so much worse, basketball is not Dwight Howard’s life – it’s only a part of it. Former coach Kevin McHale recently added fuel to the anti-Dwight fire, saying that five minutes after Howard loses he’s over it. He’s the antithesis of Kobe, which is why that relationship was destined to be a catastrophe from the beginning.
We want our athletes to be pathologically focused on winning. We want them to be maniacal, to be driven and all-consumed. They have physical gifts that we don’t, so we feel that they’re obliged to make the absolute most of them. If they don’t, if they’re not hell-bent on extracting every ounce of their God-given talent, we’re not just disappointed; we’re insulted.
As his bizarre, uncomfortable farewell tour continues, it’s clear that Kobe Bryant is one of the most adored figures in NBA history. We love him for all of the reasons above. We love him for being unhealthy – a fundamentally doomed character who always feels slighted, and as a result always has to compensate. He seems perpetually unhappy, which is why he’s so sympathetic.
Dwight Howard seems to exercise a healthy work-life balance, which is the least sympathetic thing on Earth. When Howard bailed on Los Angeles and Kobe it was seen as him shirking responsibility, he would rather play second fiddle to James Harden in Houston than serve as Bryant’s apprentice before taking on the mantle of being the next great Laker. In Howard’s defence, there is no universe where I would take dealing with Kobe Bryant’s crap over partying with James Harden.
The public distaste for Dwight, for the posturing, the joking around and that damn smile, has created so much noise around him that the truth has become almost impossible to hear: Dwight Howard has been the best NBA centre of the past decade and it’s not even close.
In sports we love narratives and one of the most beloved is the ‘leader narrative.’ Every champion needs a leader. It can be a fiery leader like Bryant or Kevin Garnett, a statesmanlike leader in the vein of Tim Duncan and Chauncey Billups, or a selfless lead by example figure in the mould of Steph Curry. It doesn’t matter – they just have to be a ‘leader.’
Dwight Howard has never fit any of the leader archetypes. There’s nothing inspirational about him, he undermines those around him and he just doesn’t seem to care. We revel in his failure because it confirms what we want to believe.
But Dwight Howard didn’t fail. Any criticism of Howard as a basketball player, as an individual talent who could lead a team to a championship is immediately undermined by 2009. Howard took an Orlando team to the Finals whose five best players after him were Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee and Mickael Pietrus (Jameer Nelson was also on that team but injured throughout the playoffs). In the Conference Finals that year Howard came up against LeBron James in the best series LeBron ever played and emerged victorious, putting up a 40-14-4 in the clinching game six.
The Magic lost the Finals in five to the Lakers but they were a Courtney Lee fingertip in Game 2 and an epic collapse in the final minute of game four away from leading that series 3-1. The following year their team was even better, beginning the playoffs on a historic tear, reeling off eight straight wins before one of the more inexplicable playoff defeats in recent NBA memory to the underdog Celtics in the Conference Finals where Vince Carter became Vince Carter at the worst possible time, choking on two free throws to cost Orlando game two.
Howard should have been the MVP of the 2010-11 season but finished second to Derrick Rose because Rose had the better narrative (in reality, the award should have come down to Howard and James, but neither had a shot because of Howard’s personality and the public loathing for James in the immediate aftermath of The Decision. Narratives!).
Following Howard’s MVP snub the drama started and so did the injuries. Howard hasn’t been the same player since 2011 – he’s been a shadow of the transcendent athletic force he once was, the league’s pre-eminent defender who could be at the top of the key at one moment and then blocking a shot at the rim the next with a speed that was as cruel as it was breathtaking.
His defensive impact has been muted, with the Rockets this season a mere 0.5 points per 100 possessions stingier with Howard on the court. It’s a far cry from 2010-11, Howard’s best season, when he was the game’s best defensive player and his team was an incredible 6.8 points per 100 possessions better on defence with him on the floor – effectively the difference between this year’s Warriors defence and the Lakers.
Howard’s time in Houston seems to have run its course. He doesn’t have any chemistry with James Harden and it’s clear that the duo do not complement each other. Howard wants the ball in the post while Harden wants to iso and pick and roll. Their failed chemistry has been destructive, dating back to the disastrous playoff series defeat to Portland two years ago, where the team devolved into watching Howard prosper in the post while Harden stood and watched aimlessly. The two do not make each other better and in over 1100 minutes this season line-ups featuring Harden and Howard together are barely breaking even.
Howard has not expired as a useful NBA player. He’s still averaging a 15-12 with a 20 PER this season despite Houston’s troubles. He’s not a transformative talent anymore but he could still be the second best player on a championship team.
He’s been a beast in the playoffs the past two years, butchering Robin Lopez and Robin Lopez’s sense of being a man in 2014 with perhaps the last great ‘old school big man in the post’ playoff performance, putting up a 26-13 with 2.8 blocks on the Blazers.
He was integral to last season’s deep playoff run too, averaging a 16-14 and 2.3 blocks with Houston a monstrous 9.4 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor (an even greater positive differential than Harden). And don’t forget, in that epic game six comeback against the Clippers, it was Howard putting up a 20-21 in 40 minutes while Harden shot 5 for 20 in 30 minutes and spent the fourth quarter on the bench.
Given the trade rumours over the past month and their walking catastrophe of a season to date (http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/11/05/failure-launch-rockets-early-season-woes/), it seems unlikely that Houston will retain Howard as a free agent. The Rockets might need to blow things up. What was once a loaded roster is now just deep in mediocrity.
Ty Lawson has been a debacle, Terrence Jones is an immense disappointment, Corey Brewer’s contract is nearly as bad as his play, Donatas Motiejunas is gone, and Patrick Beverley is an injury report that writes itself.
Letting Howard go would be a giant step forward in a rebuild. Clint Capela is a genuine talent and his rim running ‘I don’t care about getting post touches because I can’t do anything in the post’ Tyson Chandler archetype is a much better fit next to Harden than Howard.
Daryl Morey is too smart to give Howard, a declining big man with a history of chronic back and knee injuries, the max deal that he covets. There are enough stupid teams in the league (you think Sacramento aren’t dumb enough to talk themselves into a Howard/DeMarcus Cousins twin towers arrangement? You underestimate Vlade Divac) to throw something close to the max at Howard irrespective of his fit, and there are enough smart teams that might do it if he’s a perfect fit (see: the Boston Celtics).
But Howard is going to be overpaid and we’re a few inevitable years away from his deal being an albatross, the sequel to his former Magic teammates Rashard Lewis and Gilbert Arenas. The spectre of ‘Dwight Howard’s Expiring Contract’ just seems too perfect on paper for 2021 that it has to come to fruition.
Howard’s gargantuan contract to be will be another nail in his coffin of public perception. It will be another chapter in the best-selling story of Dwight Howard’s failings and inadequacies; more noise on the album of loud, gleeful Dwight mocking.
Howard isn’t blameless for all this. The soap opera in Orlando was a farce entirely of his own doing and his reluctance to run pick and roll – an affront to his weird Shaq-inspired complexes of needing to fulfil the 1995 big man in the post archetype – has undermined him at various stops.
But most of the criticisms are just noise, vindictive noise, and no matter how irksome his personality has been and continues to be, it doesn’t obscure the simple truth about Howard, regardless of how painful it is to admit and accept: he is still really good and he was once meaningfully great.
Swampy
Guest
It's quite ridiculous the assumptions you make from everyone's comments. 1. Never said anything about why curry had a low contract - certainly wasn't insinuating that he had made his mind up to prove his worth due to a lesser deal. Likewise for Lebron. You clearly miss all points in your inane rant paraphrasing discussions that possibly only occurred in your head. I will spell out the point I was making for you - lebron's and curry's play is completely independent of their will/desire to win on the court. Put them on a court and they want to win. I don't get that with Howard. It is obvious he has dedicated quite an amount of time to sculpting (though I guarantee he has a significant hereditary advantage) and no doubt does hours of rehab. Howard seems far more concerned about himself than winning. Furthermore he appears to at times reduce his effort almost to sabotage his position in the team or the position of others. This is the knock on Howard. He doesn't have the permanently on kill switch that we want from a guy with his obvious ability. Now if you are an NBA GM are you going to pay a guy top dollar if he's going to submarine your team as soon as he's not happy. Cancers in the office spread and it doesn't take much to kill morale when your best paid worker starts moaning. In answer to your last question pete, I've sacrificed seeing my kids for the money and for me it wasn't personally worth it and I changed my lifestyle. However with that change I was well aware of the financial sacrifice that would ensue. I never said I was successful with my business either. Dwight Howard, as opposed to me, wants his cake and to eat it too. He's expecting $30m for his services that aren't guaranteed to be fully committed - buyer beware!
pete bloor
Guest
What? LeBron has deliberately undertaken a strategy to maximise his contract and has been reasonably overt about his position on players taking discounts. With Curry he took a long term deal when he had injury woes, he didn’t do it to “prove” anything. There’s no point in complaining right because there is close to a complete inability to restructure a contract in the NBA and he also grew up the son of a guy who made about 20m playing basketball. If he’s got working class ethics it’s only because he made friends with the janitor at his prep school. Yes they are definitely better players, that doesn’t mean Howard is obligated to work even harder for his contract as I can’t see a 30 year old centre with back problems over taking Curry anytime soon.
pete bloor
Guest
And Swampy so you, in working for yourself, would happily never see your kids again just to be the best [insert swampy's role here] you could be?
pete bloor
Guest
And so does both "real" and "life". Also I'd wager that Howard has applied himself much more in the gym than most pundits here have on their chosen profession. Also you should look up George W Bush.
Swampy
Guest
I'm very much middle class and work for myself after years of working for 'the man' - hard work is the fabric of success. As Jalen says 'the only place success comes before work is in the dictionary'
Swampy
Guest
I very much doubt anyone will pay Howard $30m. Just making a point with the other contracts that those guys play and play to win - the money is not a factor. Howard clearly measures himself by his contract rather than his actual performance. Steph Curry obviously will get his reward eventually but you don't hear him complain about it. In fact even Under Armour must be pinching themselves on how good a deal they got for one of the most sought after persons on Earth. The point of the article is that Howard is still a top class player and the criticism has been unfair but his performances clearly are waning yet he himself believes he is worth what will possibly be the highest salary in the NBA next year (unless Durant signs a larger deal).
pete bloor
Guest
Do you honestly think Howard hasn't produced at all? Not even top ~60 odd? That’s an incredibly bold call. He’s played at least in line with the bottom end of production from a max contract for a centre. Also with your comparison a couple of problems with the next year figure: 1. If the market pays it, the market pays it. I’d think on his next one if he gets max money it will be a short term deal. 2. You are comparing apples and oranges by using his expectation for next year versus LeBron’s contract this year as every NBA fan should know by now the cap, and by extension the max contracts, are jumping up 3. You can’t look who “deserves” a contract by looking at the best player on the max and benchmarking form there. Otherwise there would only be one max contract, but instead looking at the recent worst performing player to sign one. 4. The Curry contract - surely you can’t be serious? To benchmark everyone to the Stephen Curry contract under next year’s cap would result in no team coming close to meeting the salary floor, not a single one. I think outside of league minimum and rookie scale you’d struggle to find anyone that can defend their contract based on Curry’s. It’s actually part of the strength of GSW is that they have been able to add ~6m in salary versus fair market
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
OK, perhaps we're getting hung up on the word 'irrational'. It is possible to sign a max contract but still disappoint. And that's what Dwight has done consistently.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I have no idea what you just said. Too intelligent for me.
pete bloor
Guest
Other thing about the big men I took a quick look at guys with at least 3 seasons of 1500 minutes and 20 PER (very rough approximation I know) that spent some time at Centre (so “bigs”) 80-89: 9 85-94: 9 90-99: 9 95-05: 11 00-09: 10 05-14: 13 So maybe the big men haven’t been of bad of late.
Swampy
Guest
I'd say that Howard's effort has decreased with each new team. there has neither been quality or quantity of production from Howard. Might I remind you it was actually Howard himself who said he expects to earn a max contract at $30m a season for his next deal. He can't seem to connect the dots between performance and financial reward. Lebron James earns $24m a season. Steph Curry earns under $12m. How can Howard be defended for his salary expectations based on those numbers?
pete bloor
Guest
So sacrificing more of a finite resource for no economic reward in order to attempt to fulfill unrealistic expectations is the economically rational course of action?
pete bloor
Guest
There is also the paradox introduced by the salary cap. A player cannot both take the maximum contract offer and be doing everything for his team to win.
pete bloor
Guest
It is irrational in terms of the economic incentive. If you owned a factory and signed a contract to product 1000 widgets do you put on another shift to make 1200 widgets even if there is no capacity to be rewarded for it? No because it is irrational. Howard went to the various NBA teams who all had a pretty good handle on his production, injury risk and work ethic. He field multiple offers at the maximum available, suggesting that production was actually worth more than that. Now if the known expectation of Howard was for him to work X hours a week then any time he allocates time from something else towards it he’s reducing the economic value of the contract. Now ahs Howard performed outside of how you expected him to? Has any new scurrilous detail emerged about his demeanour that wasn’t obvious from his time in Orlando or LA? If he takes that 1 hour away from family or hobbies or other interests to add into the delivering value to his employer he is irrational as the employer will not give him value for that hour and hence he loses the value he would have gotten elsewhere. Now some players see personal value in more hours spent on basketball (no players does everything to win as they all have external interests) in which case it is rational but that comes down to the individuals valuation of their time.. I know it doesn’t fit with the working class sensibilities of just work harder even if it reduces your hourly rate and quality of life but there’s probably a reason those sensibilities have an adjective in front of them. Under the rookie scale and max contracts I would be mystified if anyone could mount a credible argument that any guy with multiple all NBA selections didn’t deliver more value over the course of his career than his contract rewarded him for.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
All three teams that Dwight has played for expected more of him in some capacity. To expect more based on his history may be unrealistic, but it speaks to the disappointment that Dwight elicits.
pete bloor
Guest
Yes irrational. 1. He was offered multiple max contracts based on the market valuation of his production with full knowledge of what had happened in LA and Orlando and his demeanour. 2. It was impossible for him to have increased said offer by working harder, and 3. impossible to increase the value to him after signing by working harder. Hence irrational to say he should work harder based on what he was paid as the market valued his current level of “work” at the maximum it was allowed to pay. Any additional “work” has nothing to do with contractual obligation and more with personal motivation which goes to the work life balance part. The Sandler comparison is ridiculous as you are arguing quality there not quantity (as you said he churned out lots of films) of work which is the issue seemingly with Howard. Given there are probably yon average around what 2 max contracts or more per team has Howard been in the top 60 in production over the past 3 years? You’d have to say yes – hence it’s hard to argue he hasn’t given value for the contract. Will others have delivered “more value” sure but that’s the beauty of long term and max contracts.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
What exactly are you arguing here? That Dwight 'survived' in a changing league? Congrats Dwight, you 'survived'! Break out the champagne! Dwight's stats may have improved since his rookie year, but there should always be a natural improvement in line with age. Alas, Dwight's improvements are minimal at best, and his work ethic and desire have been questioned numerous times. Many respected pundits believe he was detrimental to his team. In a team sport, that's an issue. He's been a great player, I don't question that. But he also comes with plenty of baggage and issues.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
It's not irrational to believe that someone getting paid over $20 million would do all he could to earn it, and do all he can to win. You know, the point of actually playing the game.
pete bloor
Guest
I think they are going with PF for Duncan vs Centre despite players switching all the time and Duncan playing most of his career at C.
Swampy
Guest
Irrational? On what planet is it that someone can be awarded $20m a year for work and not expected to perform - Dwight Howard would have been awesome in the ABA where some of the players only made money off the gate and lived on lunch vouchers for cheese sandwiches. But he is getting $20m to perform in a billion dollar entertainment industry. Adam Sandler I believe was almost Hollywood's highest paid actor at one point - then he rolled out stinker after stinker and no one was giving him $30m to star in his next movie. Dwight Howard is the NBA's Adam Sandler.