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We’re almost there now, just three teams to go in our NRL season preview series. Today we’re looking at the Melbourne Storm.
2015 in review: Efficient, effective, eliminated
Looking back with the benefit of hindsight, 2015 was rather an odd season for the Storm. On first glance one would think that a preliminary final appearance would be something to celebrate but at the time it seemed abundantly clear that the team was merely making up the numbers in the final four. They appeared to have played their big game in week one against the Roosters.
In many ways the big story for the 2015 season was the superb play of Cameron Munster. Munster took over the fullback role full time in the second half of the season after injury to Billy Slater and thrived in the role. As the big three era inevitably draws to a close in Melbourne it will be absolutely critical for the club to begin to identify the next generation of talent and Munster demonstrated that there can be a future for the club after those three giants of the game move on.
Off-season story: Nothing
Absolutely nothing.
The Storm are such a relentlessly efficient and professional organisation that the sort of day-to-day controversies that impair other clubs never seem to find their way to the south. Sure there’s the odd massive systematic salary cheating scheme but aside from that the team is the model of a modern professional sports team.
They do their business quietly and effectively.
Roster management
2016 gains: Cheyse Blair, Jeremy Hawkins Mark Nicholls, Matt White
2016 losses: Matt Duffie, Mahe Fonua, Ryan Hinchcliffe, Tom Learoyd-Lahrs, Kurt Mann
One of the biggest advantages of cheating the salary cap to the broad extent that the Storm did between 2007 and 2009 is not that you can retain your top stars but that you can retain a better class of role player. That is how for example the team could have then internationals like Jeff Lima, Sika Manu and Adam Blair on the bench for various grand finals.
However with the departure this offseason of Ryan Hinchcliffe the last vestiges of the salary cap cheating era are almost gone. Of the team that played the 2009 grand final, only four players are still on the roster: Will Chambers and the big three of Smith, Slater and Cronk.
While considerable turnover is to be expected over a six or seven year period, the reality is that the Storm’s roster is much thinner than it used to be. This season for example sees two key first graders in Hinchcliffe and Fonua departing along with some solid contributors such as Kurt Mann and Matt Duffie, with little coming in return.
Although many Raiders fans were aggrieved at the lack of opportunities given to both Nicholls and Hawkins in 2015, neither were particularly impressive in the time they did get in the top flight. Meanwhile, Cheyse Blair played only 16 games over two seasons at the Sea Eagles and Matt White is solid, dependable and no one’s idea of an impressive signing.
Meanwhile, losing Ryan Hinchcliffe in particular will be a major blow given his key role as a stand-up wrestler in defence and as a steady backup at dummy half for Cameron Smith during the representative third of the season.
Likely line-up
1. Billy Slater
2. Marika Koroibete
3. Cameron Munster
4. Will Chambers
5. Cheyse Blair
6. Blake Green
7. Cooper Cronk
8. Jesse Bromwich
9. Cameron Smith
10. Jordan McLean
11. Kevin Proctor
12. Tohu Harris
13. Dale Finucane.
14. Tim Glasby
15. Kenny Bromwich
16. Matt White
17. Nelson Asofa-Solomona.
As always the strength here is the spine, with even unheralded Blake Green making a strong contribution in 2015. However it is a renewed forward pack that keeps the team competitive. While the era of brining multiple internationals off the bench is long gone the team does still have a very strong starting forward pack. This includes three current Kiwi internationals and fine role players such as Finucane and McLean.
However that being said, the bench is as weak as it has been in years with pretty much any combination you can put together from the wider squad featuring at least one or two players who are fringe first graders at best.
The team is reliant particularly on Jesse Bromwich to stay healthy given his colossal work rate and stamina for a front rower. In 2015 Bromwich averaged 63.5 minutes, the most of any regular prop and played nearly 400 total minutes more than the next front rower on the list in Aidan Tolman. Furthermore Bromwich wasn’t simply occupying a spot on the field averaging a tick under 16 runs per game for 146m and nearly 34 tackles. If Bromwich were to get hurt the team would struggle.
Meanwhile, the backline is a mixed bag with all-time great Slater, Origin pro Chambers and burgeoning youngster Munster flanked on either wing by the boom or bust Koroibete and the underwhelming Cheyse Blair.
Player to watch: Tohu Harris
In a team littered with internationals and bona fide all-time greats, it seems odd to focus on a second rower who, while he has appeared for New Zealand, is far from an international regular. However Tohu Harris’s more modest credentials belie his importance to the team as the playmaking focal point of the team’s left edge.
You only need to look at the improvement in Harris’ statistics in the key playmaking categories from 2014 to 2015 to get a sense of his importance. In 2015 Harris recorded five tries (up from zero), six line breaks (up from two), four line breaks (up from one) and most impressively seven try assists which again was up from zero in 2014. Indeed Harris’ seven try assists was as many or more than several players who were full time halves and only two behind his teammate and left edge partner Blake Green.
2015 also represented a significant step up in minutes played for Harris as he went from being a 50-minute interchange player to an 80 minute starter. With a full season of that expanded role under his belt it will be fascinating to see if Harris can continue his upward trajectory in 2016.
Predicted finish: Make the eight
While the roster may be decidedly sparser than years past, Smith, Slater and Cronk are called the big three for a reason.
In an era in which the focus is squarely placed on the playmaking spine of an NRL team the Storm have two players who may well be the best ever at their position in Smith and Slater and another who is certainly top three in the game right now.
However as father time starts to catch up with each of them and as the supporting cast gets weaker it becomes ever harder to see this team play well enough on a weekly basis guarantee them a spot in the eight let alone the top four. Add to this the annual representative burden the team carries with the departure of Ryan Hinchcliffe to make that period even harder to manage than years past.
But while it is entirely possible that the Storm find themselves in a real struggle to make the eight, that by no means discounts them as a premiership contender. Until such time as Cam Smith, Billy the kid and Cooper Cronk are either retired or playing elsewhere, this team remains a threat even if they finish seventh or eighth in the regular season.
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