After three long weeks, we reach our final NRL season preview with the 2015 premiers the North Queensland Cowboys.
2015 in review: Well that went well
After several seasons in which they were almost the team of destiny, in 2015 the Cowboys really were the team of destiny.
After a horror start in which they lost their first three games, two of them by over 20 points the team then won 15 of their next 16 games as they surged to a third place finish in the regular season.
Instead of their usual Origin period slump they instead had an Origin period surge. Where once they were fragile on the road and particularly in Sydney, the team lost only once in the Harbour City and in fact suffered more home losses than away.
After a small hiccup in the week one final in Brisbane the team annihilated the Sharks in week two before an epic win in Melbourne in the preliminary final.
All of which took them to the final Sunday night of the season and the truly magical game which was to come.
Off-season story: Celebrations, presumably
A quiet offseason for the Cowboys as the team presumably enjoyed their premiership win and readied themselves to attempt to be the first team to defend a title in more than two decades.
Roster management
2016 gains: none.
2016 losses: Viliame Kikau, Cameron King, Glenn Hall, Robert Lui, Kelepi Tanginoa.
It should come as no surprise that Cowboys management have seen little need to tinker with a squad that won the title and as such the team hasn’t added any players of significance in the offseason.
Nor have they lost any player who was likely to be a key contributor in 2016. Robert Lui started the 2015 season in first grade but was quickly moved aside in favour of Michael Morgan in the halves to allow Lachlan Coote to join the team at fullback.
Cameron King made only two appearances while Kelepi Tanginoa and Glenn Hall had only three as the team enjoyed remarkable good health and was able to avoid going beyond the top 17.
In fact the team had 17 players appear in at least 17 games with a core group of 15 players appearing in 23 or more games. It is a truism of the competition that the most successful teams are generally also the healthiest teams. In a salary capped league the more games a team gets out of its best players the better because even in the deepest teams the top 17 generally have their position in the team for a reason.
Perhaps the only blemish for the team with respect to roster management is the loss of young prop slash remorseless try scoring machine Viliame Kikau. After an NYC season in which he scored 21 tries in 21 games – yes you read that correctly 21 tries from the front row – Kikau has joined the Panthers for the next two years. But you know what they say, you can’t keep them all and the Cowboys still have two other members of the NYC team of the year on the books in the form of Gideon Gela-Mosby and the brute Coen Hess.
Likely line-up
1. Lachlan Coote
2. Kyle Feldt
3. Kane Linnett
4. Justin O’Neill
5. Antonio Winterstein
6. Michael Morgan
7. Johnathan Thurston
8. Matt Scott
9. Jake Granville
10. James Tamou
11. Gavin Cooper
12. Ethan Lowe
13. Jason Taumalolo
14. Rory Kostjasyn
15. Scott Bolton
16. Ben Hannant
17. John Asiata.
With the Roosters losing Maloney and Tuivasa-Sheck and with apologies to the Broncos, the Cowboys are now undoubtedly the strongest spine in the competition.
While Johnathan Thurston’s credentials are well known it was the move to incorporate former Panthers starlet Lachlan Coote at fullback and move Michael Morgan back into the halves that sparked the Cowboys season and created the three-headed playmaking monster that took the team to the title.
With all three players touching the ball as many as 50 times each in a single game and each possessing credible running, passing and kicking games the team was always able to go to Plan B and Plan C when Thurston was swamped or caught out of position.
Between them the three players had 55 try assists and 52 line break assists while also breaking the line 41 times and chipping in 25 tries between them. No other trio of halves and fullback even comes close
Jake Granville meanwhile was one of the best signings of 2015 and gave the Cowboys a potential game breaker at hooker with his incendiary pace out of dummy half.
Of course all the playmaking in the world only gets you so far if your forward pack is unable to give those creative players the time and space to operate in. But again no worries here as the Cowboys possess one of the top three forward packs in the competition.
It starts up front with the Australian front row pairing of James Tamou and Matt Scott who are ably reinforced in the middle unit by the destroyer of worlds Jason Taumalolo and more than useful bench middles such as Ben Hannant, John Asiata and Scott Bolton.
On the edges the team has Gavin Cooper and Ethan Lowe who if they weren’t familiar to most NRL fans at the start of last year are now after they both played virtually every minute of every game for the team in 2015.
So if you’ve got a forward pack to create time and space to operate and transcendent playmakers to exploit those opportunities all you need are outside backs to finish off the chances and Kane Linnett, Antonio Winterstein, Kyle Feldt and Justin O’Neill all fulfilled their end of that requirement in 2015 and are safe bets to do so again this year.
Player to watch: Lachlan Coote
It’s hard to remember now but twelve months ago Lachlan Coote was an all but forgotten man in NRL circles. After debuting for the Panthers way back in 2008, Coote was billed as a star of the future. However after six largely unsatisfying seasons that ended with serious injury in 2013, Coote was granted a release by Panthers GM Phil Gould as part of Gould’s house cleaning project that also saw club stalwarts Luke Lewis and Michael Jennings depart.
After finding a home in Townsville Coote’s Cowboy’s career started in the worst way possible with an ACL tear at the Auckland Nines ending his 2014 season before it began. As Coote sat on the sidelines Michael Morgan flourished at fullback and Coote looked surplus to requirements.
However after Robert Lui failed to impress in the early rounds of 2015 Coote was brought into the side at fullback with Michael Morgan moving back to his original position in the halves.
If only someone had thought to predict the sort of influence Coote might have for the Cowboys in 2015. Oh wait someone did. Here is what I wrote the week before Coote’s first game for the Cowboys:
“However, the potential upside for the Cowboys is huge. If Morgan can convert his playmaking contributions from fullback to the halves and Coote can produce the same ability and talent he showed in flashes during his early years at Penrith then they should provide a terrific foil for Johnathan Thurston and jump start the Cowboys’ season”
For coach Paul Green the decision to not only revive Coote’s first grade career but also to move Morgan, who had been arguably the team’s best player the season before at fullback, back to the halves was incredibly bold.
It’s fair to say it was also well rewarded with Coote thriving almost immediately and the rest of course was history.
But the salary cap wheel turns quickly in the NRL and already there are reports that Coote has been told that he will not be offered a new contract at the Cowboys as the team faces the hard retention choices that bedevil every successful team.
That makes Coote one of the most interesting players to watch in the game in 2016. After gaining a second life at the Cowboys in 2015 Coote will now be putting himself in the shop window for 2017 and beyond.
Predicted finish: Top four
They’re the defending premiers and they didn’t lose anyone of significance so it’s a no-brainer to pencil them back into the top four. Of course there are questions marks. Will the team be able to stay as healthy in 2016 as they did in 2015?
Will the team show the same determination that took them to victories in eight of 11 games decided by a try or less? Will Thurston ever start to decline?
But overall this is an outstanding team that has as good a chance as any recent premier to repeat.
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