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2016 NRL preview series recap: Part 1

(Robb Cox ©nrlphotos.com)
Roar Guru
29th February, 2016
5

Over the last three weeks we have looked at every team in the NRL and set out detailed forecast for each. This involved looking back at each team’s 2015 season and any big news that occurred over the offseason.

We examined every team’s roster moves over the summer, set out a likely line-up, looked at the strengths and weakness, and identified selection battles or positional switches.

Finally, we’ve identified a player to watch in the upcoming season, and made a prediction about where each team will finish.

However, this preview series has taken a different approach to most in that we did not attempt to name a predicted order of finish, or even select a definitive top eight. In a comp as even as the NRL, it is a fool’s errand to predict exact finishing spots.

Instead, we have taken a vaguely probabilistic approach and placed each team into one of five tiers reflecting an expectation of where each team is likely to finish. Those tiers were the self-explanatory top four and bottom four; make the eight and miss the eight, which are also fairly easy to grasp; and finally fringe of the eight, which created considerable consternation in a couple of previews, where Roarers felt the preview was not sufficiently positive.

If abandoning the traditional rip ’em and rank ’em approach of season predictions wasn’t confusing enough, we also didn’t name four teams in the top four or four teams in the bottom four, with only two in each tier. Meanwhile, the fringe-of-the-eight tier contains eight teams, who are competing for probably two or three spots.

But that simply reflects a league in which a dozen teams could make the eight, with the vast majority of those probably even capable of making the top four if things break right.

Many salary cap sporting leagues aspire to an ideal where every fan of every team enters each season thinking “this could be my team’s year” but no other league comes as close to delivering it as the NRL.

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You can read each individual preview at the series homepage, but for today and tomorrow we will recap those previews, pick out some highlights, and note any late-breaking developments which might change the outlook for a team.

Bottom four: Gold Coast Titans and Wests Tigers
The lowest tier is reserved for teams with little to no chance of escaping the bottom of the table all season. Only two teams are in such dire straits, the Gold Coast Titans and the Wests Tigers.

The Titans’ overall squad is a mess, and even where they do have relative strength, their best players overlap rather than complement each other. This team is just beginning a rebuild, but they are fortunate to have the excellent Neil Henry as coach to lead the process.

The player to watch in 2016 for the Titans is Chris McQueen. A deserved Origin player when playing alongside Sam Burgess at his best, McQueen’s form declined in 2015. The Titans will hope he can bounce back in 2016.

The Tigers are also in rebuild mode, however the good news is that the core players who the team will build around are already in place and have at least a season of first-grade experience under their belt. Since the preview was published the team has suffered further blows, with Robbie Farah and Matt Ballin both set to miss the start of the season. The team will no doubt surprise at times, but overall this looks like year two of the Tigers’ rebuild.

The player to watch for the Tigers in 2016 is Mitchell Moses. A key part of the club’s long-term strategy, Moses was underwhelming in 2015, as his defence in particular was exposed. While the team will persist with him, it will be fascinating to see if he can become more than an occasional attacking contributor and defensive liability.

Miss the eight: Newcastle Knights and St George Illawarra Dragons
Upon further reflection, and on the evidence displayed in their trial game against Canberra, it’s entirely possible that the Newcastle Knights actually belong in the bottom four tier. Facing the Raiders in Orange, the forward pack looked worse than predicted and, when first-choice players were on the field at least, the backline also looked disjointed. Trial form is of course largely illusory, but it’s not ideal to be down 34-0 inside 30-odd minutes in any circumstances.

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The player to watch for the Knights is Jarrod Mullen. After being thrown to the Origin wolves with less than 50 games of NRL experience, Mullen has settled into a solid if unspectacular first-grade career. Can the arrival of Trent Hodkinson to organise the team on a play-to-play basis free up Mullen to realise the potential that saw him picked for Origin?

If the Knights could perhaps have been slotted into a lower tier there is an argument that the St George Illawarra Dragons might be better than initially projected. The primary knock on the team was whether they had the ability to score enough points to be competitive, because even a slight drop-off in defensive intensity from last season would put them under pressure to create more points.

The good news is that the team certainly had no problems scoring against the Warriors in a recent trial. However the truism about trial form still holds, and the team remains painfully thin in the forward beyond the starters. It is still unclear why they are putting their best player, Josh Dugan, in a position to touch the ball less often.

The man to watch is Benji Marshall, who may well be in his final season in the NRL. He may be somewhat diminished but let us all appreciate him while we can.

Fringe of the eight: Penrith Panthers, Parramatta Eels, New Zealand Warriors, Canberra Raiders, Manly Sea Eagles and Sydney Roosters
Nearly half the competition are in this middle tier, while the Dragons could arguably be elevated to it, and the Bulldogs (who we’ll come to) relegated to it.

But once again this simply reflects the closeness of the league. There has to be six or eight teams in the middle tier in the preview series because there are six or eight teams who could easily make up the final spots in the eight or better.

For the Penrith Panthers, 2015 was a lost year, as the team battled injuries to key players such as Matt Moylan, Jamie Soward and James Segeyaro. The team enters this season with a beefed up and much healthier squad, but several questions still remain. Firstly, there is the halves, where Peter Wallace and Soward will start the season, but Te Maire Martin and Matt Moylan (once he recovers from a back injury) are breathing down their necks.

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Secondly and equally important is coaching, after Ivan Clearly was surprisingly moved on at the end of 2015, with Anthony Griffin his replacement. While Griffin did a fine job at the Broncos, grooming several players who were a critical part of the Broncos’ run to the grand final last year, it is still hard to understand why the club sacked Cleary after the injury-affected 2015.

The aforementioned Moylan is the man to watch for the Panthers. His move to the halves has been so heavily speculated and debated that it seems inevitable. Will his recent injury play a role, or can he be the answer for a post-Soward-and-Wallace world?

Much like the Panthers, the Parramatta Eels have improved their squad via players returning from injury. But the Eels have complemented their injury returnees with excellent recruiting, adding internationals Kieran Foran and Michael Jennings, along with the dependable Michael Gordon.

On paper the team looks like contenders, but it will take time for new combinations to gel, with the biggest question mark over the new halves pairing of Foran and Corey Norman. Trial form has been encouraging, with the two combining well. If the team can get that right they could easily go from this tier up into the next.

However Foran is the man to watch for a reason. After years as a complementary half at the Sea Eagles, Foran is expected to take the reins as a primary playmaker, but does he have that in his nature?

The New Zealand Warriors’ season prediction was presented as ¯_(ツ)_/¯, which for those not familiar with the meme is a whimsical shrug. There is much to like, but also much to worry about.

The Warriors acquired two superstar gamebreakers in Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Issac Luke, part of an essentially all-new spine. With Jeff Robson replacing Chad Townsend and Tuivasa-Sheck and Luke coming on board, the team features three new players to go with a halfback who is recovering from a badly broken ankle.

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Which is why Shaun Johnson is the player to watch for the Warriors this season. While everybody remembers the horrific injury that ended his (and effectively the Warriors’) season, it is easy to forget the Johnson was actually having a down year in 2015. As such, Johnson needs to recover both his confidence after the injury and his form.

The Canberra Raiders are another team that recruited well, with the underrated Aidan Sezer brought in to partner the find of 2015, Blake Austin, in the halves. The team also brought in English international Elliot Whitehead, who seemed up to NRL pace in the trial game against the Knights. Then, just last week, Joe Tapine from the Knights was brought in, apparently in an attempt to build an entire 17 out of hard-running second rowers.

Both Raiders fans and the broader media are becoming bullish about the team’s chances, but they are painfully thin in the front row, relying on Shannon Boyd and Paul Vaughan, and are incorporating a new halfback. Once again, the ingredients are there, but it is far too early to pencil the team into the eight.

Whether the Raiders can prove the Ricky Stuart haters wrong and make the eight or better will depend in large part on player to watch Jack Wighton. A fabulously talented player, 2105 was a development year as Wighton adjusted to life at fullback. While not yet a ball player, Wighton is a mighty ball runner, in the mould of one of his most recent predecessors: He Who Shall Not Be Named But Is Covered In Tattoos And Now Plays In Wollongong. If Wighton can add a playmaking string, he has the potential to be one of the best fullbacks in the league.

Roar commenters felt my analysis underrated the rejuvenated Manly Sea Eagles. After a disastrous start, the Sea Eagles rallied to improve to a ninth place finish for season 2015, re-signed Daly Cherry-Evans, and added some excellent acquisitions.

However, their Round 1 match-day 17 will feature as many as six new players, and there will be inevitable teething problems. On top of that, the team will also be acclimatising to a new and unproven coach. On paper the squad is top eight and potentially top four, but until we see it on the field we cannot reach any firm conclusions.

Of course a huge part of the Sea Eagles’ success rests on the form of player to watch Cherry-Evans. After signing for what is reported to be a Scrooge McDuck fortune, DCE is now the main man on the Northern Beaches and is expected to excel.

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The final team in the fringe of the eight tier is the 2015 minor premiers, the Sydney Roosters. After three minor premierships and one title in three seasons, the dreaded salary cap has begun to bite, with ninja fullback Tuivasa-Sheck, underrated half James Maloney, and Origin centre Jennings all departing in the offseason.

As if losing half the spine and an Origin back wasn’t enough, the team will also start the season without Mitchell Pearce as well as key forwards Boyd Cordner and the unstoppable force Jared Warea-Hargreaves

That said, the Roosters’ squad is still menacingly deep, and if any team can cope with those losses it is this one. Could they still make the eight? Most definitely. Heck, if Cordner and Warea-Hargreaves return quickly and at full strength, this team could still make the top four. But for the time being the more likely outcome is a mid-table battle.

With Pearce, Maloney and Tuivasa-Sheck all gone, Jake Friend is essential. Touted as Cameron Smith’s possible successor, 2016 provides Friend with an opportunity to elevate his game.

Tomorrow we will cover the final six teams in the competition: the make-the-eight tier and the top-four tier.

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