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The following are my projected ranking of the AFL’s 2016 midfields.
I have a quantitative weighting for the following statistics: kicking, handball, clearances, marking, tackling and one per centers (spoils, smothers, blocks, bounces, knock ons).
These correlate most closely with teams scoring and not getting scored against, based on a series of regression analyses I performed.
I am only considering players who played at least four senior games in 2015. This means I won’t have any first-year players on the lists – for example, no Callum Mills for Sydney. This also means players who were injured for 2015 will not be on lists.
In addition to the weighting for each statistical category, I have developed predictive models, which project what the player’s likely output should be in each of those statistical categories. The figures and subsequent rankings are therefore projections, so it should indicate what I estimate will occur in 2016, not necessarily what has happened previously.
The numbers that appear beside each player’s name are the sum total of their offensive and defensive output, which I call Real Player Value. This number doesn’t have specific relevance to scoring – as in a score of 25 doesn’t mean the player is worth 25 points – the number should be seen only as a rank. It does apply to a linear formula that I use to project the cumulative output of all players for a whole team, but this article is not investigating that.
The players considered for qualification in the best midfield had to be classified by Champion Data as midfielders or midfield forwards. I have not assessed where the player might play in 2016, even though in some cases it is apparent that players may change position.
Each midfield consists of nine players. This reflects the structure of the AFL Coaches Association All Australian side, which listed nine midfielders in the best 22 – two wings, one centreman, two on-ball or ruck rovers, one extra midfielder on a forward flank, and three extra midfielders on the bench.
There is also the complication of players who were subs or subbed out of games. I haven’t taken percentage of game time into consideration, so in the case of someone like Sam Kerridge, who will seemingly both move into a proper midfield role and get more game time, we could him to improve beyond my projections.
| FREMANTLE | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| N.Fyfe | 1.5 | 9 | 15.3 | 5.8 | 18.2 | 4.1 | 37.1 |
| D.Mundy | 1.5 | 7.7 | 12.6 | 1.7 | 19.6 | 5.9 | 30.5 |
| S.Hill | 2.5 | 3.8 | 15.8 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 2.6 | 30.3 |
| L.Neale | 0.5 | 6.2 | 13.5 | 5.3 | 15.8 | 3.6 | 29.8 |
| H.Bennell | 2.3 | 3.4 | 14.6 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 27.2 |
| T.Mzungu | 1.4 | 1.7 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 21.7 |
| M.de Boer | 1.1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 21.4 |
| M.Barlow | 0.4 | 1.9 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 13.4 | 4.1 | 19.9 |
| D.Pearce | 1.5 | 2 | 12.6 | 1.7 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 17.3 |
| RATING: | 235.1 | ||||||
| PORT ADELAIDE | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| R.Gray | 2.5 | 7.8 | 13 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 4.4 | 32.5 |
| H.Hartlett | 2.5 | 3.8 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 30.6 |
| O.Wines | 2 | 5.5 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 14.2 | 4.6 | 29.4 |
| T.Boak | 1.6 | 5.9 | 13 | 2.9 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 28.5 |
| B.Ebert | 1.6 | 2.1 | 12.9 | 6 | 14.2 | 6.1 | 27.3 |
| J.Polec | 1.4 | 1.7 | 11.5 | 7 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 24.2 |
| S.Gray | 1.8 | 4.7 | 10.8 | 3.2 | 12.3 | 2.8 | 23.5 |
| M.White | 1.6 | 2.1 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 19 |
| K.Mitchell | 1.2 | 1.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 18.8 |
| RATING: | 233.8 | ||||||
| GOLD COAST | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| D.Prestia | 2.3 | 8.4 | 14.6 | 5.6 | 17.1 | 5.4 | 37 |
| G.Ablett | 2.2 | 4.8 | 15 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 28.3 |
| M.Rischitelli | 2.4 | 5.5 | 12.1 | 4.1 | 10 | 5.7 | 28.1 |
| M.Hallahan | 1.1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 28 |
| D.Swallow | 1.4 | 5.1 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 25.9 |
| J.Lonergan | 1.2 | 2.7 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 21.5 |
| M.Rosa | 2.5 | 2 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 13.9 | 2.6 | 21.5 |
| T.Miller | 1.6 | 3.8 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 20.4 |
| A.Hall | 1.3 | 3 | 10.6 | 2.4 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 19.3 |
| RATING: | 230 | ||||||
| SYDNEY | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| J.Kennedy | 1.6 | 7.7 | 12.9 | 2.9 | 19.6 | 6.1 | 32.3 |
| K.Jack | 1.6 | 3.9 | 13 | 6 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 29.7 |
| L.Parker | 2.3 | 5.1 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 17.1 | 5.4 | 29.1 |
| D.Hannebery | 0.6 | 5.7 | 12.6 | 1.4 | 19 | 5.9 | 26.5 |
| T.Mitchell | 0.4 | 4.1 | 12.3 | 3.5 | 14.2 | 6 | 25.4 |
| J.McVeigh | 2.4 | 1.9 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 13.3 | 4.1 | 25 |
| B.McGlynn | 2.5 | 2.1 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 21.1 |
| I.Heeney | 2.3 | 0.7 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 18.3 |
| G.Rohan | 1.5 | 1.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 15.9 |
| RATING: | 223.3 | ||||||
| GEELONG | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| P.Dangerfield | 2.5 | 7.7 | 16.1 | 2.9 | 14.2 | 6.1 | 33.5 |
| J.Selwood | 2.5 | 5.9 | 13 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 31.2 |
| J.Caddy | 2.2 | 5.1 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 27.6 |
| S.Motlop | 1.5 | 1.9 | 15.3 | 5.8 | 10 | 4.1 | 25.5 |
| M.Blicavs | 3.1 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 24.5 |
| C.Guthrie | 2.3 | 3.4 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 22 |
| S.Selwood | 0.6 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 6 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 20.3 |
| J.Bartel | 0.2 | 1.6 | 10.5 | 3.5 | 17.3 | 3.5 | 20.2 |
| M.Duncan | 1.5 | 1.9 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 13.4 | 2.5 | 18 |
| RATING: | 222.9 | ||||||
| WEST COAST | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| M.Priddis | 2.5 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 19.9 | 7.8 | 34.5 |
| A.Gaff | 2.3 | 3.4 | 17.6 | 5.6 | 17.1 | 2.3 | 30.2 |
| J.Redden | 1.5 | 5.7 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 13.9 | 5.9 | 29.5 |
| L.Shuey | 1.5 | 5.4 | 12.1 | 1.3 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 24.8 |
| L.Jetta | 1.5 | 1.9 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 22.7 |
| M.Hutchings | 1.2 | 4.1 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 20.9 |
| D.Sheed | 1.1 | 2.2 | 10.8 | 3.2 | 12.3 | 2.8 | 19.6 |
| C.Masten | 0.6 | 2.1 | 12.9 | 1.5 | 14.2 | 2.7 | 18.5 |
| E.Yeo | 3 | 1.5 | 10.6 | 1.1 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 17.3 |
| RATING: | 218 | ||||||
| COLLINGWOOD | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| S.Pendlebury | 2.5 | 3.9 | 16 | 4.4 | 19.9 | 6 | 32 |
| A.Treloar | 1.3 | 4.6 | 13.5 | 3.8 | 15.8 | 5.1 | 27.8 |
| S.Sidebottom | 2.5 | 2 | 15.8 | 6 | 13.9 | 2.6 | 27.2 |
| D.Swan | 1.4 | 5.2 | 13.9 | 1.9 | 18.3 | 3.8 | 26.4 |
| T.Adams | 1.3 | 4.6 | 13.5 | 2.4 | 15.8 | 5.1 | 26.1 |
| J.Crisp | 1.4 | 3 | 13.5 | 3.8 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 24.7 |
| T.Broomhead | 0.6 | 2 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 17.9 |
| A.Oxley | 1.8 | 1 | 10.8 | 3.2 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 17.8 |
| L.Greenwood | 0.6 | 2 | 9.3 | 1.4 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 17.3 |
| RATING: | 217.3 | ||||||
| GWS | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| C.Ward | 1.6 | 5.8 | 12.9 | 6 | 14.2 | 6.1 | 32.1 |
| S.Coniglio | 1.3 | 4.6 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 15.8 | 5.1 | 29.6 |
| R.Griffen | 4.2 | 3.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 13.9 | 4.3 | 26.6 |
| T.Greene | 1.3 | 3 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 15.8 | 3.6 | 26.6 |
| D.Shiel | 3 | 4.6 | 10.6 | 2.4 | 15.8 | 3.6 | 25.1 |
| L.Whitfield | 2 | 1.3 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 10.6 | 1.9 | 21 |
| T.Scully | 1.5 | 1.9 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 13.4 | 4.1 | 20.9 |
| J.Kelly | 1.1 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 18.1 |
| J.Steele | 0.9 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 16.7 |
| RATING: | 216.6 | ||||||
| BRISBANE | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| D.Beams | 1.5 | 7.5 | 15.8 | 2.8 | 19 | 4.3 | 32.3 |
| M.Robinson | 1.5 | 3.8 | 12.6 | 6 | 13.9 | 7.7 | 30.2 |
| T.Rockliff | 0.6 | 5.7 | 12.6 | 1.4 | 19 | 7.7 | 27.7 |
| P.Hanley | 2.5 | 2.1 | 16.1 | 4.4 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 24.7 |
| R.Bastinac | 1.5 | 3.6 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 10 | 4.1 | 24 |
| D.Zorko | 2.2 | 3 | 13.5 | 1.1 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 21.1 |
| L.Taylor | 1.8 | 1 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 12.3 | 1.6 | 19.4 |
| R.Lester | 2.3 | 3.4 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 9.4 | 2.3 | 18.9 |
| N.Robertson | 1.8 | 1 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 17.7 |
| RATING: | 215.9 | ||||||
| HAWTHORN | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| L.Shiels | 1.5 | 3.8 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 13.9 | 7.7 | 32 |
| J.Lewis | 1.5 | 5.7 | 15.5 | 4.2 | 19.6 | 2.6 | 30.6 |
| S.Mitchell | 2.2 | 4.8 | 15 | 1.9 | 17.3 | 3.5 | 26.8 |
| L.Hodge | 3 | 3.1 | 15 | 3.5 | 11.6 | 3.5 | 25.7 |
| W.Langford | 1.2 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 22.7 |
| B.Hill | 2.2 | 1.5 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 20.6 |
| I.Smith | 2.3 | 1.7 | 14.6 | 1.2 | 12.7 | 2.3 | 19.6 |
| B.Hartung | 1.8 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 9.3 | 1.6 | 17.1 |
| J.O’Rourke | 1.2 | 2.7 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 10.6 | 1.9 | 15.7 |
| RATING: | 210.8 | ||||||
| WESTERN BULLDOGS | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| M.Wallis | 0.5 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 2.6 | 17.1 | 5.4 | 27.7 |
| J.Macrae | 2 | 4.1 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 14.2 | 4.6 | 27.6 |
| L.Dahlhaus | 1.4 | 3.4 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 17.1 | 5.4 | 26 |
| L.Picken | 0.6 | 3.8 | 12.6 | 2.8 | 13.9 | 5.9 | 24.3 |
| K.Stevens | 0.6 | 3.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 23.3 |
| M.Bontempelli | 0.6 | 4.7 | 13.2 | 2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 23 |
| L.Hunter | 1.2 | 1.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 14.2 | 1.9 | 22.9 |
| L.Jong | 1.2 | 2.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 19.1 |
| C.Smith | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 14.8 |
| RATING: | 208.8 | ||||||
| RICHMOND | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| T.Cotchin | 1.6 | 5.8 | 16.1 | 2.9 | 14.2 | 4.4 | 29 |
| D.Martin | 1.5 | 3.6 | 18.5 | 4.2 | 10 | 4.1 | 27.7 |
| A.Miles | 1.3 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 3.8 | 15.8 | 3.6 | 27.1 |
| B.Ellis | 1.3 | 1.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 25.1 |
| S.Edwards | 2.5 | 3.9 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 24.6 |
| S.Grigg | 0.6 | 3.9 | 13 | 2.9 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 22.9 |
| R.Conca | 2.3 | 1.7 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 9.4 | 2.3 | 16.8 |
| K.McIntosh | 2.3 | 1.7 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 16.2 |
| K.Lambert | 0.9 | 2.7 | 9.1 | 1.7 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 15.6 |
| RATING: | 205 | ||||||
| ADELAIDE | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| S.Thompson | 1.2 | 5.9 | 11.3 | 3.2 | 16 | 6 | 28 |
| R.Sloane | 4.3 | 3.8 | 12.6 | 2.8 | 13.9 | 5.9 | 27.9 |
| R.Douglas | 2.5 | 3.9 | 12.8 | 4.4 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 26.3 |
| M.Crouch | 3.3 | 4.7 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 12.3 | 4.1 | 24.3 |
| C.Ellis-Yolmen | 1.8 | 4.7 | 8.4 | 2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 21.4 |
| M.Grigg | 2.8 | 1.3 | 12.3 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 20.3 |
| N.van Berlo | 1.6 | 2.1 | 9.6 | 2.9 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 18.4 |
| D.Mackay | 1.6 | 2.1 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 18.3 |
| P.Seedsman | 2.2 | 1.5 | 10.6 | 2.4 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 17.2 |
| RATING: | 202.1 | ||||||
| MELBOURNE | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| B.Vince | 1.6 | 5.9 | 16 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 31.5 |
| N.Jones | 0.6 | 5.9 | 12.8 | 4.4 | 14.2 | 4.4 | 28 |
| J.Viney | 1.2 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 14.2 | 6 | 28 |
| D.Tyson | 0.5 | 4.6 | 10.6 | 3.8 | 15.8 | 3.6 | 24.3 |
| A.Vandenberg | 1.6 | 3.8 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 20.4 |
| B.Newton | 0.3 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 18.7 |
| A.Brayshaw | 0.9 | 2.7 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 17.8 |
| J.Watts | 0.6 | 2 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 10.4 | 2.6 | 16.8 |
| B.Stretch | 0.9 | 1.7 | 7 | 0.7 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 11.9 |
| RATING: | 197.4 | ||||||
| NORTH MELBOURNE | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| J.Ziebell | 0.6 | 5.7 | 15.8 | 4.4 | 7 | 5.9 | 28.4 |
| A.Swallow | 1.6 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 2.9 | 14.2 | 7.8 | 27.7 |
| B.Cunnington | 1.5 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 18.2 | 4.1 | 27.3 |
| B.McKenzie | 1.3 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 2.4 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 22.3 |
| N.Dal Santo | 2.2 | 3.1 | 10.5 | 1.9 | 11.6 | 2.1 | 19.4 |
| S.Gibson | 1.3 | 1.5 | 10.6 | 3.8 | 11.8 | 2.1 | 18.9 |
| F.Ray | 1.5 | 1.9 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 10 | 2.5 | 17.4 |
| M.Wood | 1.8 | 1 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 16.3 |
| T.Dumont | 0.9 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 15.8 |
| RATING: | 193.6 | ||||||
| ST KILDA | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| D.Armitage | 1.6 | 5.9 | 16.2 | 4.4 | 19.9 | 6.1 | 33.8 |
| J.Steven | 1.5 | 3.8 | 15.8 | 4.4 | 13.9 | 7.7 | 30.2 |
| L.Montagna | 1.3 | 3.1 | 15 | 2.6 | 17.3 | 5 | 25.7 |
| L.Dunstan | 1.8 | 3.4 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 20.4 |
| J.Newnes | 2.2 | 1.5 | 10.6 | 3.8 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 19.9 |
| M.Weller | 0.5 | 1.7 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 17.2 |
| S.Ross | 1.3 | 3 | 7.7 | 1.1 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 16.8 |
| D.McKenzie | 2.3 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 15.7 |
| B.Acres | 1.1 | 2.2 | 5.9 | 2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 13.6 |
| RATING: | 193.3 | ||||||
| CARLTON | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| M.Murphy | 2.5 | 3.9 | 16 | 4.4 | 14.2 | 4.4 | 29.1 |
| B.Gibbs | 2.5 | 5.9 | 13 | 2.9 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 28.4 |
| E.Curnow | 1.4 | 3.4 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 24.7 |
| P.Cripps | 1.1 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 24.6 |
| J.Tutt | 1.4 | 1.7 | 11.5 | 7 | 9.4 | 2.3 | 23.1 |
| N.Graham | 1.2 | 4.1 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 22.5 |
| D.Thomas | 0.6 | 2.1 | 9.6 | 1.6 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 14.8 |
| M.Whiley | 0.5 | 3 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 13.4 |
| S.Kerridge | 0.5 | 1.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 8.7 | 0.6 | 11.1 |
| RATING: | 191.8 | ||||||
| ESSENDON | |||||||
| Player | One % | Clearances | Kicking | Marking | Handball | Tackles | RPV |
| B.Goddard | 1.4 | 3.4 | 11.4 | 5 | 18.3 | 3.8 | 26.6 |
| Z.Merrett | 1.8 | 3.4 | 10.8 | 3.2 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 23.6 |
| N.O’Brien | 1.2 | 4.1 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 14.2 | 1.9 | 20.1 |
| M.Stokes | 1.6 | 2.1 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 10.7 | 2.7 | 20 |
| R.Crowley | 1.6 | 2.1 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 19 |
| C.Bird | 1 | 2.6 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 18.9 |
| D.Zaharakis | 0.6 | 2 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 17.9 |
| J.Kelly | 1.3 | 1.6 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 11.6 | 3.5 | 17.1 |
| J.Simpkin | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 13.7 |
| RATING: | 177 | ||||||
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