Here we go again! The 2016 NRL season kicks off this week, which means it’s once again time for me to put my head on the proverbial chopping block and open up for intense ridicule come season’s end – or potentially even sooner!
As has become an annual tradition, I’ll make five fearless predictions for the year in rugby league, and then sit back and let the vitriol and scorn begin.
Forget the drum roll, let’s just get into it.
1. The Roosters won’t make the eight
The departures of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, James Maloney and Michael Jennings.
Mitchell Pearce’s drunken antics, and the repercussions.
Injuries to Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Boyd Cordner.
Legal issues with Shaun Kenny-Dowall.
I’m not even sure this is all that ‘fearless’ of a prediction. I’d probably be more shocked if the Chooks actually did make the top eight.
However, given their proud history, recent success, and the impressive coaching of Trent Robinson, a finals series devoid of the Roosters still seems odd. The boys from Bondi won’t go down without a fight, but they will not finish in the top eight.
2. The Sharks will start slow, fire their coach, and then finish fifth
It’s a Roar fire sale – three predictions for the price of one! Everything must go!
With the premiership cupboard still collecting dust after all these years, Sharks fans must be among the most loyal and patient in any sport.
Sadly, that patience is running very thin in The Shire.
Cronulla have an impressive roster, with considerable depth and a number of top-level players. They had a good off-season, signing James Maloney to add some experience and direction in the halves, and retained the services of boom youngster Jack Bird.
Combined with a good season in 2015, the club should be setting their sights high in 2016, and with that expectation comes pressure.
The man who should be feeling that pressure the most is head coach Shane Flanagan.
Questions remain over his tactics, team selections and his ability to coach in-game.
With all the talent at his disposal, a slow start could spell danger for Flanagan’s employment. Yet the Sharks will struggle early in the season, Flanagan will be sacked, and the team will rally behind a new coach to finish the year strongly, just outside the top four.
3. Moses Mbye will win the Dally M Medal
It’s pretty fearless – or outright stupid – to bet against Johnathan Thurston when it comes to the best player in the competition award.
Though Thurston will be considered the best player in the land come season end, the Bulldogs’ Mbye will take home the Dally M award.
I’ll naturally be accused of bias, and that’s fine, but officially handing the keys to the Dogs over to Mbye will ensure a big year from the talented halfback.
Confusion and insecurity reigned with the Dogs’ halves last year, as it was never clear who the preferred combination between Mybe, Trent Hodkinson and Josh Reynolds was. With Hodkinson moving on, and Mybe locked up to a long-term contract, this is now the youngster’s team.
He’ll be more confident this year, he’ll have his hands on the ball a lot, and playing behind that massive Dogs pack is a dream for any halfback.
Above all, he’s a very good player, who should poll strongly in the 2016 Dally M count.
4. Blake Austin will win a man-of-the-match award in State of Origin
I originally had this prediction as ‘Blake Austin falls off a cliff’. No, not literally. I meant that he’d come back to earth with a thud after a stunning 2015 campaign.
Then I watched some Austin highlights from last year again, and realised pretty quickly that last season was no fluke.
The Raiders five-eighth runs the ball hard, and has an array of skills that won’t suddenly desert him. He didn’t play well last year because of good luck or red-hot form that isn’t sustainable; he played well last year because he’s extremely talented.
He should have played for NSW last year, and I can’t imagine the Blues’ selectors will make the same mistake again. Actually, I can totally imagine them making the same mistake again, but let’s hope they don’t.
Austin should wear the sky blue number 6 jersey this year; he’ll dominate one game, and earn a man-of-the-match award.
5. The New Zealand Warriors will win the premiership
Sorry Woe Woe fans; I’ve just consigned your team to not even making the finals series with this ‘kiss of death’ prediction.
Though I’m far from convinced the Warriors actually will win the premiership, the Cowboys are too easy a selection, and the fact no team has won the NRL competition back-to-back ensures history is also against North Queensland.
If Brisbane can rebound mentally from their demoralising grand final loss, they’ll rightfully be considered premiership heavyweights, but I’m going outside last year’s top two teams and choosing the unpredictable Warriors to win in 2016.
Let out a deep breath Melbourne fans, but if there is a better spine in rugby league than Issac Luke, Shaun Johnson and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, I’d love to see it. New Zealand has a crazy amount of ability and class in key positions, and if they gel quickly, they’ll cause plenty of headaches for opposing coaches.
Provided the rest of the team can perform their roles, stay healthy, and play consistently (no easy task, given the team’s history) the Warriors have the talent to beat any team. If they get hot once the finals starts, they could go on a roll and be the team standing on the dais come season’s end.
I’m predicting they will be.
Akuila
Guest
Hi Ryan. Great list, though I think No. 5 is a cop-out. The Warriors has always had one of, if not the best, naturally talented squads in the NRL.Combined with the fact that they always do well in the Juniors and you have an under-performing Senior squad every year. Everybody is waiting for them to finally get it right, Will it be 2016???
Ryan O'Connell
Guest
That isn't a swear word. The word I really want to call you is . . .
Patrick Effeney
Editor
Swearing in this forum? How unedifying, O'Connell.
Chubbzyk96
Guest
Just did a quick run through on the NRL Ladder Predictor, but I have no idea.... Broncs/Sea Eagles/Cowboys/Storm/Eels/Warriors/Sharks/Raiders/Bulldogs/Rabbits/Roosters/Dragons/Panthers/Titans/Tigers The top 8 could really be any make up in any order, and i think only the top 11 teams i have here are able to make the 8. Dragons over performed in 2015, and I dont really have much confidence in their roster, as such Panthers (especially with injuries)
Dean - Surry Hills
Guest
Michael - You pretty much summed up my thoughts word for word, except I'm not a Queenslander (and hold no fears, and pray that Pearce has seen his last Blues jersey).
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Nice one Ryano, I think the Chooks still have a strong squad and will make the 8. The Sharks have the talent but not the coach to take them to another level. Not sure Mbye will win it but he should be in the mix. Despite all the Warriors talent, do they have the coach ? I guess the same questions were asked of Paul Green when he went North. If the Warriors find some consistency they can make some real noise. I like Austin as a player and should be in a Blue jersey if form is there. I think the Broncs will go one better and win it all.
Muzz
Guest
1. This Roosters outfit will be better than last years come finals time. The pack and bench are still number 1. SBW may return after the Olympics? . Nikorima is special. An instinctive half with loads of spark and a good head on his shoulders. He also has a nice hair style. 2. The NRL are running out of fairytales which are great for business. Sharks to win every penalty count. 3. Mbye is quality. He won't win the DM but will have a solid season. 4. I like Austin however won't play SOO. 5.The other fairytale. Great roster with an average coach. They will be eliminated in the preliminary final.
Norad
Guest
"A Player Will Die In This Heat". Every first round headline every year.
Casper
Guest
Jayden Nikorima is a lock for rookie of the year, will also put a hole in your roosters prediction number 1. Austin talk reminds me of all the so called walls Lewis beaters nsw trotted out in the early origin years, how did they all go?
Casper
Guest
Kevin Walters - 4 NRL premierships, 1 super league premiership. Set up the winning try for renouf in the World Cup final. Got the Catalan Dragon no names within a game of the English super league final. Qld origin regular. Bit unfair in your assessment.
Roy
Guest
Time will tell I guess but I certainly don't think Manly will be anywhere near the top 4.
Dr Yes
Guest
Fair enough. Good points. But to be devil's advocate... How about Manly's run of 6 from 7 at the end of last year, beating competition leaders Brisbane by 30. With a rubbish pack. Foran's a huge loss, but was injury-prone. I agree that Myles' premiership form hasn't matched his Origin form. Walker might only need to get his hands on the ball at speed, like he has in the past. He & Barrett are working with half a dozen leader's who've won premierships. Lyon and Mattai are pretty good for advice and running in support. And they feed Tom T & G Stewart (when fit). Fair risk of DCE overplaying and starving backline ball, though. And the footy operation has nous (not the club admin!) Fulton & Cartwright have been brought in to assist Barrett - have premiership coaching experience.
Roy
Guest
I certainly don't think Manly are anything special, can Barrett even coach? Sure they've bought players but is Taupau as good as people think, I don't rate him or Lewis Brown and Nate Myles best days are behind him. Dylan Walker is a good centre but as a 5/8 the jury is out. All this talk about Manly finishing as high as 1st is poppycock, I'd say fringe 8. Brisbane, Cows but only if Thurston stays healthy, the Roosters and Melbourne who when full strength are one of the best teams will be the 4 in my opinion. Canterbury and Cronulla should be thereabouts with Manly, Parra, Canberra, Souths and the Warriors to fight it out for the last 2 spots.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
You clearly like 5. You steal my format all the time, you lazy bastard.
Patrick Effeney
Editor
Five predictions? Why not four? Or six?
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Not offended at all, mate!
peeeko
Guest
agree on the roosters, they do have bad years despite what people think. close to last in 2009 and 2011
Dr Yes
Guest
Just to be different. Not to stir :) 1. Mitchell (sub in Holden Cup team of year), Elliot (centre in Holden cup team of year, 2014) and Hastings (junior Roo) step up. High work-rate of props & Taukieaho. JWH, Cordner & Pearce play went it counts. Fergo's stats improve from 85% to 95% of RTS's . Last year's stats for Jennings ranked about 5th in the backline. Need to cross all body parts re injury to top players. Go 5/12 then 9/12 (last year went 6/12 then 12/12). 5th place. 2. Flannigan can coach, Maloney, Bird & Holmes can play and the big bopper pack's a little bigger & boppier (plus Paulo, Sene Lefao, minus noone). 2nd place. 3. Dogs miss BMoz, Hodko, Pritchard, Cook & Lafai. Eastwood unfit, Hoppa out of form. 10th place. Halves go well, but JReynolds steps up alot - so maybe MBye is in the top 15 of Dally M? 4. Canberra have two five-eighths, which hurts them a bit. JReynolds & Walker lead SOO charge. Austin makes bench in an SOO game, for limited game time. No MoM. 5. Johnson inured 30% of year. Results in below par 6 & 7, about the 10th best spine. Luke's not a defensive worker, ok in attack. Cappy's backline moves don't quite balance Johnson and RTS - not quite as good as Robinson's. Sometimes backliine starved of ball & flashy looks exceed results. Biggest spenders = poor moneyball, hence they've lost much depth in transfers. But traditionally have great junors. Half of props are iffy. 8th place 6. Cowboys discover they had luck with injuries last year and don't quite have the depth of other clubs. Losing one spine-member hurts, as evidenced in 2014 with Coote. Last year they lost games when 1 or 2 of Morgan, Scott or Tamou were out - which was very seldom. 4th 7. Broncs discover they don't have depth in backs and should've hung onto some key juniors. 3rd 8. Parra's best is great and their worst not so great. Injury to Peats &/or Foran &/or Semi. Gordon not dangerous enough in attack. Jennings fires. Scott hard but slow & targetted by opposition fliers. Missing a couple of A grade props. 9th 9. Manly suddenly have a pack, which they didn't last year. Walker, Tom Turbo, Koroisau, Brown & Kapow can play. Backline fires with field position & momentum. Foran was off the field or affected for much of last year, anyway. Would be impossible to match last year's off-field drama. 1st.
Roy
Guest
Even though the Roosters have lost some players their depth is very good, they still have a better roster than most teams and yet all the so called experts are wishing them to failure. Either they don’t know what they are talking about or they hate the Roosters. The chooks will not only finish in the 8 they will probably be top 4, I don’t think people understand how good Latrell Mitchel, Jayden Nikorima and Hastings are, throw in Joey Manu who will be a superstar and you’ll see the Roosters are still the great side they have been for the last 3 years. Everyone should know that you need a good forward pack to succeed and the Roosters still possess arguably the best pack in the comp but the so called experts will still write them off, the Roosters aren’t going anywhere.
Alex Green
Roar Guru
Re: prediction 2 - not very fearless except for the sacking of Flanno part, that's just plain ridiculous! Unless you have some inside info on unsavoury sack-able behaviour ROC?! If they didn't sack him after the peptides scandal they won't be sacking him just for starting the season slowly, especially after losing the first four games last year but recovering to nearly make the top 4. And also with the mitigating circumstance of having a new halves combo that needs time to gel.