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So we reach the end of the line.
Today marks the end of our three-week odyssey previewing the NRL season.
Yesterday, we recapped the bottom three tiers in our rankings – the bottom four tier, the miss the eight tier and the fringe of the eight tier.
Today, we will finish that recap and bid a fond farewell to the preview series.
However, the preview train will roll on in a manner of speaking. Starting tomorrow I’ll be doing a weekly Thursday Night Football Forecast to get everyone ready for the marquee Thursday night game.
There are some cracking games on the Thursday night slate beginning with the season opener between the Brisbane Broncos and Parramatta Eels.
So look out for those but for the time being enjoy the final two tiers in our NRL preview series, the make the eight tier and the top four tier which, spoiler alert, only contains two teams.
Make the eight: Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, Melbourne Storm, South Sydney Rabbitohs and Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
Unlike the teams in the fringe of the eight tier that we looked at yesterday, these teams have all demonstrated they are finals quality. They are more likely than not to make the eight and in some cases can push for a top four finish.
However, with that being said we begin with the Bulldogs, a team for whom the wisdom of Roar commenters suggests I should reconsider my ranking.
Originally set down as a make the eight team on the basis of their metric ton of front row forwards and solid backline (though the loss of Brett Morris for up to four months will hurt the team), Roar commenters raised a number of issues.
Of particular concern are the halves with many people feeling that the team has made the wrong choice in allowing Trent Hodkinson to depart (although I’m not sure I saw many people marching to keep him last season) while retaining Josh Reynolds and Moses Mbye.
For the time being my assessment stands that Mbye and Reynolds can and will be an effective halves partnership, however it will be interesting to revisit the team in the coming months.
Another concern for many was my player to watch Michael Lichaa, with many people sceptical of Lichaa’s ability to contribute enough in attack. However, I maintain that Lichaa was in fact a little underrated in 2015 due to unfair comparisons with Michael Ennis – who enjoyed a truly remarkable late career revival at the Sharks – and that Lichaa is set for a big year in 2016.
For the Melbourne Storm the song remains the same with the team heavily reliant on the big three of Cooper Cronk, Billy Slater and Cameron Smith. However, if you are going to be reliant on three players you could hardly pick a better three than these proven titans of the game.
For all the skill of the big three, though, the team remains demonstrably thinner than in years past and may struggle if they get injuries to key players such as Jesse Bromwich.
Also, since the preview was published it has become increasingly evident that both Billy Slater and first choice backup Cameron Munster are both unlikely to make Round 1, which will place added pressure on the team. That is not to say the team isn’t equally capable of making the top four should everyone stay healthy.
For the Storm we selected a slightly unusual player to watch in Tohu Harris. A hustle and bustle second rower by nature, Harris showed a deft playmaking touch at times in 2015 and the team will be hoping he can continue to flourish and complement Blake Green on the left edge
For the South Sydney Rabbitohs the make the eight status is heavily premised on the successful return of Sam Burgess from an ill-advised junket in rugby union. With Burgess back, the team’s forward pack – which was mostly unthreatening in 2015 – regains much of its bite, though it seems likely they will have to cope without Sam’s twin brothers to start the season.
Regardless, a rejuvenated forward pack should provide Luke Keary (or Cody Walker should he thrive in Keary’s absence through suspension) and the outstanding Adam Reynolds with plenty of opportunities to lay on points for a backline that is solid without being especially impressive.
For the Rabbitohs the key man to keep an eye on is Greg Inglis. Long considered among the most naturally talented players in the game he has at times been criticised for an apparent lack of effort. While such criticism is generally misguided and stems from the crazy-high expectations that fans put upon him, that doesn’t mean that it won’t flow freely if Inglis, or the team, starts slowly.
The final team in the make the eight category is one that only 12 months ago was among the favourites for the 2015 wooden spoon, the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks.
After an above expectations season in 2015, which saw the team finish fifth on the ladder and make week two of the finals, the Sharks have retooled over the summer, signing two new halves and adding some depth around the edges.
With James Maloney and the underrated Chad Townsend on board and a logjam at fullback, the big question for coach Shane Flanagan is how to accommodate all the talent. The debate about the best way to use Jack Bird aroused plenty of debate among Roar commenters and is likely to continue to do so as the season continues.
On paper at least, the top 17 is very strong with a forward pack that contains plenty of size with Andrew Fifitia and Sam Tagataese, plenty of stamina with Paul Gallen and plenty of skill with edge back rowers like Luke Lewis and Wade Graham.
The backline meanwhile is similarly talented and the halves are top rate so the biggest question will be how well the team gels and whether the team can stay healthy. There are new players in three key spine positions and the depth beyond the top 17 is not great.
The player to watch for the Sharks is 2015’s hooker of the year Michael Ennis. In a team that was badly lacking in pure playmaking ability in 2015, Ennis elevated his game and provided the creativity the team desperately needed. So it will be fascinating to see how Ennis adjusts to life with two genuine first-grade halves. Can he hand back the limelight? Or should he even?
Top four: Brisbane Broncos and North Queensland Cowboys
With only two teams remaining we reach our final tier – the top four.
These are the two teams that I am very confident will make the top four barring a catastrophic run of injuries, a colossal salary cap cheating scandal or an asteroid strike. Those two teams are last year’s grand finalists the Cowboys and Broncos.
Surprise!
For the defeated finalist Brisbane Broncos it was presumably a long, excruciating summer after the team came within seconds of securing Wayne Bennett’s eighth premiership.
However, the good news is that the team enters 2016 looking slightly better than last season. While Justin Hodges may have been the spiritual heart of the team his replacement James Roberts brings a more rounded game than Hodges possessed in the last years of his career.
Meanwhile, the forward pack will be stronger with the return of Josh McGuire and will be well suited to the longer minutes that will be required under the new interchange rules.
Indeed the Broncos preview could easily have been a simple haiku:
Seconds away
A legend is replaced
Title favourites
While the arrival of Roberts is significant, the player to watch for the Broncos in 2016 is the little wizard, Anthony Milford.
After spending most of his time at the Raiders playing at fullback, Milford took a little while to adjust his game to playing in the halves in 2015. However, once he did he was simply breathtaking, complementing his wonderful running game with a developing passing game and putting in the occasional kick.
As 2016 progresses we can only hope to see more magic from a player who may have only just scratched the surface.
Finally, onto the defending premiers.
Our preview of the North Queensland Cowboys noted that they have as good a chance as any team in recent memory to win back-to-back titles with a starting team that is entirely untouched from last season.
The Cowboys still have the best spine in the NRL with the three-headed playmaking monster of Johnathan Thurston, Michael Morgan and Lachlan Coote augmented by the pacey Jake Granville at dummy half.
The team also still has a top three forward pack with all-Australian front rowers, a mack truck at lock and classy edge backrowers. Finally, the team is rounded out by a corps of outside backs who while perhaps not as heralded as their forwards are still all very good players.
The player to watch for the Cowboys is one-third of the playmaking Cerberus, fullback Coote. After washing out of Penrith in 2013 and losing his entire 2014 season to injury, Coote’s injection into the team allowed Morgan to return to the halves and gave the Cowboys a Plan B and Plan C on the rare nights that Thurston was off his game.
A scant few months later, however, and the Cowboys are already facing joint challenges of salary cap pressure and talented juniors like Gideon Gela-Mosby and Kalyn Ponga pressing for an opportunity in first grade.
With those factors in mind, it has been rumoured that Coote may need to look elsewhere to secure his long-term future and as such 2016 will see him firmly in the shop window as teams like the Titans look to augment their rosters.
So we reach the end of the preview series but begin a new series tomorrow with the first Thursday Night Forecast. Tune in tomorrow, same bat time, same bat channel.
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