Today, it was announced that Ross Lyon will coach Fremantle until 2020.
Now, there have certainly been more controversial coaching appointments, extensions, and moves – some featuring Lyon himself – but the move to keep Lyon for the next five years shapes as one of the most intriguing coaching decisions made in recent years.
It is one that will end in glory or abysmal disappointment.
Either the Dockers will shake off the ‘close-but-not-quite’ tag and claim one, two, maybe even three flags and truly become a powerhouse of the competition. Throw in 50+ goal seasons from Matt Pavlich and Michael Walters. There could be maybe a few more Brownlows around Nat Fyfe and Lachie Neale’s necks for good measure.
Or, it could go the other way. We could have more of the same increasingly frustrating finals losses, and an eventual decline resulting in disillusionment and Lyon’s reputation in tatters.
According to who you talk to, his game plan is either brilliant or fundamentally flawed. To begin though, a purely statistical analysis is required. Ross would like that. The man is – after all – almost ludicrously analytical in his approach to the game.
Here goes: nine years, 218 games, 143 wins, 70 losses, five draws. A 65.6 per cent winning record. Eight final series, two preliminary finals and four grand final appearances.
This sequence of scores kicked in finals by Lyon’s sides: 8.13, 17.4, 9.10, 12.8, 9.6, 9.14, 12.11, 13.10, 10.8, 7.10, 8.9, 14.12, 11.5, 12.15, 14.15, 8.14, 10.9, 11.17, 10.9, and 10.7.
End result: Zero premierships. A 45 per cent winning record in September and October. And don’t get me wrong, but for a dodgy bounce in 2010 when Lenny Hayes’ snap went right instead of left and through for a point instead of into the hands of Stephen Milne for a match-winning goal, Lyon would be a premiership coach.
And many of the doubters would be silenced. And we’d all have to live with the fact that Milne is a premiership-hero.
But it didn’t. And they aren’t. And he isn’t (phew). And the conclusion is this. You can pontificate for days on I-50 counts, scores from defensive 50, kicking efficiency, ratio of handballs-to-kicks, differentials in handball receives, tackle-counts, contested versus uncontested possessions and marks. But at the end of the day, only one thing matters. If you put the pigskin through the goals more than your opponents, then you lift that cup.
Premiership winning coaches know this, recognise the importance of clinical, overwhelming attack, of the ‘swing’ player who turns a game on its head. The occasions where you just let a hit’n’miss player go about his merry way and hope he wreaks havoc on the opposition.
Ross – I feel – disputes this. To him, a methodical, consistent, grinding game will result in hard-earned, well-deserved victory.
I like Ross. He’s hard. He’s uncompromising. He makes unpopular choices. He puts the blowtorch on players. He pushes the envelope when it comes to ‘player management’. Softly-softly? Psh. Toughen up sunshine. Yet, no premierships.
He also underplays the significance of time. In a press conference on Thursday, Lyon detailed that there was no excuse for Fremantle not to have won a flag by 2020.
What a revelation!
If Fremantle don’t win a flag by 2017 that those extra three years on your contract might count for naught. Lyon’s had a long time to perfect his plan, and he will be judged harshly.
Ross however, is optimistic. “Professionally and personally it’s exactly where I want to be. It certainly allows myself, the coaching panel and the whole club to continue to plan and put in place pillars around my appointment.”
Lyon has all the right tools. He’s got Fyfe. One of the most dominant big-men in the game. Emerging guns and experienced veterans. A scarily-well drilled backline. An almost unfair home-ground advantage.
I want Lyon to do well. I want Fremantle to win. As an Essendon fan with only a couple of wins over Carlton to look forward to, and an intense desire to see Hawthorn not win four flags in a row, and a desire to see those who haven’t won before win on the biggest stage, it’s only natural.
So c’mon Ross. Let your players ‘off the leash’ in 2016. Transition the ball more freely. Overwhelm defences with multiple high-scoring forward combinations. Attack. Score.
Win the flag.
Make 2020 a celebration of your success, not a closing chapter on ‘what-if’.
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