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There’s nothing quite like the optimism of rugby league fans just before the season starts.
It’s the time of year when you’ll hear such comments as “I think we’ll give it a proper shake this season”, or “If we can just stay healthy, you never know”, followed by the always popular “We’re a real dark horse!”
What’s always amusing is how quickly that enthusiastic buoyancy can evaporate, and full-blown overreactions occur after just 80 minutes of football.
“We’re done”, “The season is over already”, “We’re in for a long year, guys”.
You’ll forgive me if I say that rugby league fans are somewhat bipolar.
So in that spirit, let’s analyse the five biggest overreactions after Round 1 of the 2016 NRL season.
1. Manly should sack Trent Barrett immediately
Sorry Tooves, we made a mistake. Dessie, any chance we can bury the hatchet and you can come back to Brookvale? Bozo, you sure you don’t want to coach the team again?
It wasn’t the greatest of debuts for Manly’s new coach Trent Barrett, with Fortress Brookvale looking more like Manly beach on a hot Sunday afternoon, with the non-locals running riot.
The Bulldogs played the role of aggressive tourists, attacking in swarms and essentially doing what they pleased on Friday night.
The Dogs scored a number of soft tries, Manly committed far too many errors, and in the end, the scoreline flattered the Sea Eagles, for they were terrible.
Perhaps Barrett is out of his depth as a first-grade coach.
Or perhaps it’s just one game.
2. The Dogs are premiership favourites
One of the Dogs’ supposed weaknesses heading into the season was their big forward pack. Some reasoned that with the new interchange laws, the bulky Canterbury forwards would struggle with the pace of the game.
However, it seems some intense cardio was the off-season training strategy at Belmore, as the Bulldogs forwards looked fit and mobile. Moses Mbye backed up this observation by confirming the team had worked hard on its fitness coming into the season.
Given the quality of their forwards, if they can stay up with the pace of the game, they should be automatic premiership favourites. In fact, just hand the Dogs the title now.
Or perhaps it’s just one game.
3. The Roosters may finish dead last
In my predictions piece last week, I forecast that the Chooks would miss the top eight. Based on what we saw on Sunday afternoon, they may finish beneath the bottom eight!
Hyperbole alert!
In an ‘overreaction’ piece, no less.
Still, the Roosters struggled against the Rabbitohs, losing 42-10.
They had key players out injured or suspended, were on the wrong side of some referee decisions, and faced a red-hot Bunnies outfit that executed with pinpoint precision and ruthlessness, so there are some worthy excuses for the poor showing.
By the same token, the Roosters’ defence was appalling and they lacked direction in attack. It could be a very long year out in Bondi.
Or perhaps it’s just one game.
4. Injuries will ruin the 2016 season
After just one round of football, the season has already been ruined by some horrendous injuries.
John Sutton is out for 16 weeks.
Adam Reynolds could miss between six weeks and four months.
Paul Gallen is set to miss four to six weeks.
Michael Lichaa is expected to be out for anywhere between one and four months.
James Segeyaro may miss between six and eight weeks.
Aidan Sezer could miss a month.
Blake Austin may be out for six weeks.
Plus there are a number of other casualties from the opening round.
The game is too tough. It’s too physical. We’re asking too much of the players. The NRL is just a breeding game for serious injuries. Something’s got to change.
Or perhaps it’s just one game.
5. I overestimated the Warriors
Lastly, a little overreaction from myself.
At halftime of the Tigers versus Warriors game, I texted a mate and said, “I’ve overestimated the Warriors; there is no way they’re winning the comp.”
So it only took a half of football for me to overreact, let alone the full 80 minutes!
The Warriors did look much better in the second half, and made a valiant comeback, but losing to premiership featherweights the Wests Tigers has raised questions over New Zealand’s 2016 campaign already.
I was a little too high on the Warriors. And potentially something else.
Or perhaps it’s just one game.