The draw for Indian Wells is complete, and Rafael Nadal is looking at a bit of a doozy.
With the big-serving Gilles Muller a distinct threat in the second round, a potential rematch of the Australian Open with Fernando Verdasco in the third, and the almost-giant slayer Gilles Simon a fourth round possibility, it’s a tricky start to say the least.
In addition, Japanese sensation Kei Nishikori is in his quarter, and the juggernaut that is Novak Djokovic is looming in the semis. On paper, Nadal certainly has his work cut out for him.
In the past, the tennis world has assumed he would cut through these foes like wheat. However, after a seven-month absence in 2014 owing to a broken wrist, a back injury, and appendicitis crushed his confidence, calls for a new coach have been flying for quite a while, after his less-than-perfect 2015.
Every tennis expert, critic, and worried Nadal-partisan fan is throwing around ideas; he needs to uproot his current coaching team, or hire a guest coach, or change his game completely, or any other myriad of options. After all, tennis players hire new coaches all the time, and in Nadal’s situation, it would come as no surprise.
We can argue it certainly worked for Roger Federer and Andy Murray. The additions of Stefan Edberg and Amelie Mauresmo catapulted them back onto tennis’ top tier. And we all know what happened when Novak Djokovic brought Boris Becker on board. But here’s the thing; Federer, Murray, and Djokovic are not like Nadal. Very few people are.
There are two key differences between Rafa and every other top player, which would render a new coach potentially disastrous.
Firstly, Rafa thrives on consistency. Every aspect of his life is compartmentalised in such a way as to retain a particular through-line, to prevent his anxious mind from wandering. It extends beyond his water bottles routine (they must be placed diagonally, labels facing out, in front of his chair), walking across the ‘Melbourne’ sign on Rod Laver Arena, and his famous wedgie-pulling scenario when returning serve. It goes right to the heart of the enigma that is Nadal.
The reason he has had the same coaching team from the word go is not simply because they collaborate well, or because head coach Toni Nadal is his uncle. It’s because their collective, familiar energy calms and settles their charge. And it’s not just the coaches; Rafa has also had the same physical therapist, agent, press agent, and doctors for the majority of his career. Put simply; big change does not aid him.
Adding a new team member, a new soul to the Nadal fortress may very well topple it, rather than fortify it. Aside from anything else, the inevitable guilt at sacking or sidelining his uncle, generated by the huge emphasis he places on family, would add further disquiet to Nadal’s already fragile psyche. Not the correct ingredient when looking to rectify a crisis of confidence.
Speaking of confidence, the second key difference is Rafa relies on winning to maintain it. Unlike Federer and Djokovic, Nadal does not have a healthy ‘champion’s ego’ to fall back on when times are tough. In order to be confident, he has to win. However, in order to win, you have to be confident.
It wouldn’t matter if a super coach flew in from Mars with a book containing every secret to tennis, Rafael Nadal is not going to start winning consistently while he’s caught in the confidence-trap. No amount of new coaches, or tweaking his game plan, is going to change that. It’s simply how he’s wired.
For Rafael Nadal to maintain a consistent winning streak, he has to break out of the confidence ‘chicken and the egg’ cycle. For every other athlete in the world in Nadal’s position, I would clamour for them to change something. However, Nadal is not every other athlete. He has a uniquely formulaic mind, and his way of doing things is as driven by psychology as much as practicality.
Throwing big change at him would tip the balance. The formula would be corrupted, his modus operandi compromised, and he could spiral into a pit of anxiety and guilt very hard to come back from. His team has thought this through. They know shaking up the natural Nadal-order is not to be advised.
If Rafa Nadal can navigate a tricky Indian Wells draw, and play competitively against Djokovic in the semis, it will have an infinitely more positive effect than a change to his coaching team. And if somehow, propelled by his killer instinct and a thirst to prove himself, he manages to win the tournament, the backpedalling by his critics will be extraordinary to behold.
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