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Coolmore Classic 2016: A historical preview

Rosehill Racecourse. (Source: Wiki Commons)
Roar Guru
10th March, 2016
4

Race 7 at Rosehill on Saturday (4.10pm, AEDT) is the Coolmore Classic. It is a Group 1 fillies and mares race first staged in 1973, but has only been known as the Coolmore Classic since 1996.

Emancipation and Sunline, two of Australasia’s greatest mares, have their name on the honour roll, and they both carried a massive weight of 60 kilograms when victorious.

In fact the great Sunline carried that weight during both wins in 2000 and 2002. It is definitely the type of race where it is important to do your speed map, and figure out where your horse is going to be placed in the run.

It is almost impossible to win this race off a slow speed, if your horse is rearward in the race, especially from a wide barrier. Conversely if the tempo is fast, barriers become less important, and the leaderish Rosehill circuit becomes less pronounced.

Interestingly, seven of the last 13 winners hadn’t won beyond 1400 metres, before winning this 1500-metre race. That might tell us a little bit more in regard to the moderate tempo that often ensues, and/or the fact that Rosehill, at this distance, is not necessarily a stamina test.

I’m looking at the past 13 years of historical data to try and target the winner of this year’s race. Here are the last 13 winners with their age, weight, barrier, last three starts, weight drop from prior start, position at 800 metres and turn, and starting price.

• 2015 Plucky Belle – 6m, 53kg (8) x62, 2kg, (10-9) $16
• 2014 Steps in Time – 6m, 57kg (7) 3×2, 0kg, (1-1-1) $8
• 2013 Appearance – 4m, 55kg (2) x25, -3.5kg, (6-6) $11
• 2012 Ofcourseican – 5m, 53.5kg (7) x31, -0.5kg, (12-11) $13
• 2011 Aloha – 4m, 53kg (9) 1×1 -3.5kg, (1-4) $6
• 2010 Alverta – 6m, 54.5kg (14) 312, -3.5kg, (2-4) $17
• 2009 Typhoon Tracy – 3f, 51kg (14) 111, -3.5kg, (1-1-1) $4.75
• 2008 Eskimo Queen – 4m, 56kg (1) x05, -0.5kg, (4-5) $21
• 2007 Tuesday Joy – 3f, 53kg (5) 2×3, -3kg, (13-14) $7.50
• 2006 Regal Cheer – 3f, 52.5kg (3) 231, -3kg, (4-3) $9
• 2005 Danni Martine – 4m, 53kg (16) 541, 0kg, (14-14-14) $17
• 2004 Shamekha – 3f, 53kg (14) 0x3, -2.5kg, (2-2) $17
• 2003 Bollinger – 3f, 53kg (2) x11, -2.5kg, (3-2-1) $3.25

Statistics
1. 13/13 did not rise in weight off last start performance.

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2. 9/13 carried 53.5kg or less to win.

3. 9/13 dropped in weight from prior start between 2.0-3.5 kilograms.

4. 11/13 won or placed last start. The only exceptions were Eskimo Queen who won on a bog track that favoured her and Appearance who was the subject of a stewards enquiry at previous start. Six were last start winners.

5. 9/13 either three or four years of age.

6. 8/13 were positioned in first four horses early in the race.

7. 9/13 drew barriers 1-9. Three of the four that drew wide, either led, or positioned in first four early. The other (Danni Martine) settled back near last in a fast run race.

8. 9/13 were either second or third up in their preparation coming into the race.

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9. 10/13 were up in distance no more than 200m. 11/13 within 200m of this distance last start.

10. Average winning price $11.60.

Race tempo
As mentioned above it is always an advantage to race up on the pace at Rosehill, but three of the past four winners have come from a midfield position or worse to win the race.

Solicit, Peeping, Vergara and Ghisoni should all be heading forward early in this race with Pearls not too far behind, so I’m hoping and anticipating a truly run race that should give every horse it’s chance.

That probably means that a decent barrier draw is still going to be advantageous in the race, and the last four winners have drawn barrier eight or better despite three of those coming from further off the pace (than usual) to win.

Looking at the historical data above, and using a process of elimination (excluding age, positioning and likely starting price), we can omit the following with reasons explained.

1. Lucia Valentina – weight and preparation
2. Politeness – barrier and last start unplaced
3. Solicit – weight and no weight drop from last start
4. Amicus – barrier and unplaced last start
5. Tinto – barrier and unplaced last start
6. Peeping – barrier
10. Slightly Sweet – barrier and unplaced last start
11. Vergara – unplaced last start
13. Pearls – unplaced last start.

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That leaves us four chances on a historical basis.

7. Azkadellia
Azkadellia is a high-class mare and should already have a Group 1 win on her resume. She was very unlucky in the Myer Classic when the pattern of racing was against her (on pace and rails bias) charging home at the end of proceedings.

This is her first Sydney start but she did actually win going in this direction (clockwise) in New Zealand on debut. Brett Prebble comes over from Hong Kong to ride and he is actually the eighth jockey to ride in what will be her 12th start in a race. She is a historically good age at four, and has drawn well to make an impact. She looks very hard to beat, particularly if it is a truly run race.

8. Telepathic
Ran a career-best last start after blinkers were applied for the first time in the Group 2 Millie Fox Stakes. That came off a break of 43 days, but she did have seven starts in her preparation prior to that, not a great historical precedent for this.

She has an excellent record at this track, though, and she will get her chance to win from an ideal barrier. Chris Waller trains, and you can expect her to be peaking for this race. Whether she is quite good enough is the question.

9. Zanbagh
Was runner-up in the Australian Oaks of 2014 when trainer by the late Guy Walter. Since then she has struggled to make an impact at the top level, but since transferring to the John Thompson stable last November there has been a resurgence of sorts. This was highlighted by her last start second to Solicit where she was arguably the run of the race, finishing off nicely from near last.

She was beaten a length there by Solicit but meets her four kilograms better. Given that she should be favoured to beat that mare, yet she is $16, and Solicit $5.50. John Thompson reckons he has found the key to her by keeping her fresh, and would have had that in mind in preparation for this race.

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Kathy O’Hara also seems to have struck up an affinity, and would make it consecutive wins for female jockeys in this race, and amazingly three wins in the past four editions. Kathy rode Ofcourseican to win in 2012, and Linda Meech rode Plucky Belle to win last year.

The negatives are that Zanbagh is yet to win on a dry track from 14 starts, and in six second-up appearances. But the last run wasn’t bad on a less favoured surface, and her trainer is now acutely aware of her physiological requirements, meaning ‘second-up syndrome’ might not come into play this time. She looks the value horse in the race.

12. Ghisoni
This three-year-old filly is the untapped talent in the race, yet to be beaten from three starts and carrying only 50 kilograms. The last of her age to win the race was Typhoon Tracy back in 2009, but it’s interesting that the favourite in this race last year was First Seal, also a three-year-old at the time, and she was asked to carry 55.5 kilograms.

First Seal was very unlucky not to win the race, more or less beaten by her wide barrier on the day, but if Ghisoni is anywhere near her level she should win this race with 5.5 kilograms less.

Obviously she is not as talented at the same stage, given First Seal had won a Group 1 three-year-old race for fillies, and had placed at Group 1 level against the Colts in the Champion Stakes in the Spring of 2014, but it’s hard to knock her record so far.

The problem might be her inexperience, and lack of tough competition against older mares, but if she negotiates a slightly awkward barrier (8) to take up her usual on pace role, then she is going to take a lot of beating.

Summation
Ghisoni ran a time of 1.21.35 when winning the Surround Stakes last start, while Zanbagh recorded 1.20.50 when runner-up in the Guy Walter Stakes on the same day, and at the same distance of 1400 metres.

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That is of significant interest to me because Zanbagh only has one kilogram more than Ghisoni in this race, and if that time can be translated to the 1500 metres (only 100 metres further) of this race, then Zanbagh should beat home Ghisoni quite comfortably. And she is a much better price.

She also meets Peeping 1.5 kilograms better for beating her home nearly a length in the same race last start.

Azkadellia is the ‘wild card’ coming up from Melbourne, and looks very hard to beat if the breaks go her way for another new jockey.

Telepathic can’t be left out of calculations after her last start improvement with blinkers, which stay on. She is likely to sit in a midfield position and be ahead of both Azkadellia and Zanbagh in the early to middle stages of the race. Her double figure quote is also quite appealing.

I have rated them in this order, and am prepared to select the horse I consider to be the best value on top.

1 Zanbagh
2. Azkadellia
3. Ghisoni
4. Telepathic

Bet suggestion
An each way investment on Zanbagh and a win bet on Azkadellia are my favoured options.

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