NRL team rankings after Round 2

By The EYE-BALL Opinion / Roar Pro

There have been few NRL upsets in the first two rounds, other than Parramatta raining on North Queensland’s ‘premiers’ title, but if the Cowboys play as badly as they did on Saturday they deserve to be beaten.

Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Boyd Cordner will make a difference to the Roosters, and given Jackson Hastings’ poor performances, Mitchell Pearce will walk back in when he comes off suspension, but by then the Chooks’ season will be in the balance.

The fight for the wooden spoon is between Newcastle and St George – disappointing for Dragons fans given their top-eight performance last season, with pretty much the same roster.

Nathan Brown is already in trouble despite his two-season tenure to turn the Knights around. Tyrone Roberts will be glad to have moved on.

The two standout teams based on player ratings are the Broncos and Cowboys. Brisbane are yet to impress, with two wins from mediocre performances in attack. The Cowboys were methodical in Round 1 and diabolical in Round 2, but they were slow starters in 2015.

Parra’s victory on Saturday night was Kieran Foran induced – he made a few crucial tackles, but his presence and reading of the game were top notch, and his teammates responded. It will be interesting to see if that enthusiasm continues every week.

Foran still seems to be playing at half-pace, and I fear his hamstring is a week-to-week proposition. As opposition coaches often do, they’ll find a way to expose him if he is not 100 per cent fit.

My team ratings after Round 2 are as follows:

139.5 – Brisbane
138.5 – North Queensland
123.0 – Melbourne
123.0 – Canterbury
123.0 – Souths
118.0 – Cronulla
115.5 – Parramatta
115.0 – Canberra
115.0 – Penrith
115.0 – New Zealand
113.0 – Sydney
112.5 – Gold Coast
109.5 – Wests
109.0 – Manly
104.5 – St George Illawarra
100.0 – Newcastle

On these ratings, the competition is already split into three tiers – Brisbane, North Queensland, Melbourne, Canterbury and Souths at the top.

There is then a cluster of seven teams in a battle for the remaining three finals spots – Cronulla, Parramatta, Canberra, Penrith, New Zealand, Sydney and the Gold Coast. Personally, I think those three teams will be the Sharks, Raiders and a toss-up between the Eels and the Warriors.

The bottom tier teams – Wests, Manly, St George Illawarra and Newcastle – are a lock to miss the eight. Their season is about proving they are worthy of anything but margin betting against the higher ranked teams.

The Crowd Says:

AUTHOR

2016-03-17T21:24:07+00:00

The EYE-BALL Opinion

Roar Pro


Regardless of the 'soft' win against Newcastle and you neat up the weak Newcastle backline defence - the reality is Souths took advantage of what I deem sub-standard defence for an NRL team. Brown for all his S/L performances where defence is secondary, has to learn that in this competition defence is more important. This is also the Tigers weak link - the way Manly went through their outside backs last Monday is why they can't be rated as top 8 material yet. I did not miss Alex Johnson as a rep player which downplays your creditability. As for spelling - if that is where you want to go to make a comment, by all means make yourself feel better, does not faze me at all. I'll take on boar the player misspells but it doesn’t change the context of the comments. As for the Maguire lessons - his ‘bash and bash’ playbook last season saw key players out injured for long stretches. His tinkering with halves combos - i.e. Glen Stewart whilst an injury solution, the forward pack was weakened and workload for the rest of the forwards was over taxing. The team played 'jaded' for a large part when Reynolds was out. Maguire should have learnt something from this and their early finals exit should have been his wakeup call. Sam Burgess has made a difference this season - but at his current work rate how long before he goes on the injured roster playing this 'bash and bash' playbook?

2016-03-16T12:04:18+00:00

Doug Graves

Guest


Is this is going to be a weekly thing? I think many of us are looking forward to seeing how it develops as more data comes in. Also, any chance you can retro actively apply your system to last season and see how it fared?

2016-03-16T03:40:20+00:00

Davico

Guest


So your ratings are not based on any FACTS they are just completely subjective? I would not say Taylor is the most experienced coach in the comp would you? And I would have thought if you are going to take that into account you would take the experience of the players into account as well, which if you compare Wests squad vs Warriors and Manly they don't come close!! Also, last time I checked as long as you score more points than the team you are playing you take home the 2 points so still struggling to see how you have 3 teams who are winless above the Tigers even though they have beaten 2 of said teams. Also, as someone said above why are you taking last year into account if you are doing a rankings system after 2 rounds? Yes I am a Tigers fan but at least I let my bias be know unlike yourself who is just making stuff up and then when asked the question can't back up the reasoning to your "system". If you are putting your money where your mouth is based on your rankings I'm sure you are well behind this year

2016-03-15T21:17:27+00:00

Rossco

Guest


Too much supposition in all that. I pick up two points (but there are others). 1. Why rank on last year's performances in this new season? Current form should be the criteria. A 'hollow' win over the Roosters? They got beaten by a point the next game so a 32 point win over them is far from 'hollow'. BTW: Which is your team? 2. Souths have not changed their style? Have you watched their play this year? It is expansive and free flowing. All nine tries against Newcastle were scored by the centres and wingers, the latter over half the number. You missed Alex Johnston and Tom Burgess among the representative players. And you need to learn to spell Burges is Burgess? McGuire is Maguire. And what lessons can you teach Maguire from last season/

2016-03-15T12:27:59+00:00

Regan

Guest


I understand why you are a ROOKIE you have to do better.... I believe in you just think alittle more you will be better

2016-03-15T12:24:35+00:00

Regan

Guest


Have you watched a game of Rugby League in the last two years alot of people missed Taupau in tackles and the Tigers have a lot of Talent just need a little luck to go there way to kick start the team they beat the Dogs Storm and souths last year

2016-03-15T11:07:39+00:00

Wascally Wabbit

Guest


Your heading says "Rankings after Round 2." So let's look at the 2014 Rd 2 team when comparing it to the 2016 version. S Burgess - More interested in seeing his photo in the paper than playing footy. G and T Burgess - Riding on their brother's coat-tail. L Tuqiri - Washed up has-been unwanted by the lowly Tigers. C McQueen - Lucky to have played SOO D Walker, Johnston, Keary, Au'vava, Turner Promising young kids. Inglis - Great player I Luke - Second best hooker in the world B Te'o - Signing this hot- head a gamble by Souths. A Reynolds - Potential SOO player. The rest - honest first grade toilers. That's what was said about our players early in 2014. Our round 2 roster this year compares quite favourably to that. How the rest of the season goes.......? What I really liked in our first 2 games this year, irrespective of the scorelines, was the heart, desire, a bit of mongrel and teamwork - 4 things that were missing in 2015.

AUTHOR

2016-03-15T09:02:40+00:00

The EYE-BALL Opinion

Roar Pro


Let us be a bit honest - the seven I named from 2014 were seasoned players - Alex Johnston is hardly what I'd call a genuine international, the same with Tom ... and Dane Nielson played SOO to covered injured players in a team of champions ... hardly a player who can change a games direction. But I'll give you credit for the error on my part in not recognising these 'low' key players as having played some International/SOO league. Just to oil the conversation a bit more - how would those players rate up against Luke, Tuqiri,. Te'o and McQueen ... your roster is weaker omn whatever scale you measure it by.

2016-03-15T05:51:31+00:00

Wascally Wabbit

Guest


The current roster has 5 Burgess X 3, Inglis and Alex Johnston.( plus a 6th, Dane Nielson if he can crack first grade) Also, I think we have used out backs a bit more this year (so far)than we have in the previous 4 seasons under Maguire. I just hope we use them even more. It's very early days BUT, Walker and Hunt could be in for big seasons.

2016-03-15T03:22:12+00:00

John

Guest


Winless Roosters Manly Warriors all above The TIGERS??.. Those 3 could be 0-3 this week as they play Cowboys Storm and Sharks respectivley .. Time will tell...

AUTHOR

2016-03-15T02:44:49+00:00

The EYE-BALL Opinion

Roar Pro


I said 'Nathan Brown is in trouble' - you're the one suggesting that means 'his head is on the chopping block'. I'm suggesting he has limited options arising from his player roster, they lost Beau Scott from last season and a few retirements and overseas transfers. Presumably - Brown has come with a plan. He knew his roster and has to come up with a game plan to be competitive if only to make the fans believe they have a future. As an example, Gagai came with big wraps and on field performances, yet this season he is deemed a senior player and his on-field performances, in both attack [understandable given the limited options presented], and defence which is all on his choices, are hardly in tune with his previous season efforts. The Safiti brothers look promising and players he could build upon. But when the talent well is dry, all a coach can do is tell his troops to tackle their hearts out and earn opposition respect through their defence. Brown is coming from some success with Super League where defence is ordinary at best, this will be a test for him.

AUTHOR

2016-03-15T02:35:15+00:00

The EYE-BALL Opinion

Roar Pro


Hi Rossco, putting ratings aside for the moment, let me ask/probe your response so hopefully you will get to see the real picture as opposed to your fan based comment. Firstly - Souths came back from the World Cup victory last year and looked unbeatable for 3 rounds, smashing the Broncos in the first round. Then they suffered injuries - Reynolds went out for 12 weeks or so. By Rd 6 or so when Parramatta touched them up, the brutality of the Souths power game plan was impacting and players were turning up with tired bodies. Players were hurting and this season they have not changed their style. The addition of Sam Burges has rallied his team mates given how they finished last season when beaten, injured, and tired warriors. This physical game they play will hurt them as the season develops. I have a theory - the Burges brothers last season were a fraction of their form from the previous season. Big Sam has influence over George and his twin, and they will perform better because of it this season. At Club level, Inglis does what he has to, he is a different player on the SOO arena. I'm disappointed at the Reynolds injury - his form in that game had me thinking SOO again this season before his injury last season ruined his chances. He was never the same force when he came back last season. Let’s hope this season is not a repeat performance. Their win against the Roosters is proving hollow given their backup performance against Canberra. Thrashing Newcastle is also no biggie and a reason to get excited. Their roster is not what is has been in the past – how many SOO or International players do they have as compared to their 2014 season? I counted 7 – [Inglis, Tuqiri, Luke [did not play GF], Burges [G], Burges [S], Te’o, McQueen]. The current roster has 3 - [Burges x2 and Inglis.] So this early in the season Souths are still to prove themselves and whilst Burges is a big factor, McGuire has not really grown or learnt any lessons from the issues of last season. Cheers TE-BO.

2016-03-15T02:33:21+00:00

Tom Rock

Expert


I was more shocked with you pinning Parramatta's first win on the shoulders of Kieran Foran. I know it is easy to heap praise on the bloke, but I thought he was pretty passive throughout. Norman played a much bigger hand in the result, and despite Foran only playing one game, already seems to cast a long shadow over his halves partner. Also, I find it farcical to think Nathan Brown is already in trouble, two games into a rebuilding process. Yes, his team is awful, and their performances are well below NRL standard. But this is the roster he was given. He has minimal veteran talent to utilise, and his young players, while talented, are just too green. Given time, some might develop, others will flop. But to suggest he is on the chopping block....give the bloke a chance.

2016-03-15T02:19:07+00:00

Sleiman Azizi

Roar Guru


What he is saying is that based on the current evidence, he believes certain teams are likely to finish in certain parts of the ladder. Of course, this can change as more evidence and facts come in. Hope that helps.

AUTHOR

2016-03-15T01:54:34+00:00

The EYE-BALL Opinion

Roar Pro


Davico - these ratings are nothing personal - and to ask you a question - when you watch the Tigers play, do you feel the opposition will always threaten to score with ease? The Tigers defence last night as it was the previous week against the Warriors was woeful ... those attempts to tackle Martin Taupau were disgraceful, Moses' miss on Walker would be a sacking offence in many other teams. I enjoy watching the Tigers style of football and Tedesco is the most exciting player in the comp. He feeds of Brooks and Moses but when they come up a defence structure against the higher rated teams, do you think they will have the freedom to play as they do? In seasons past, when was the last time Tigers beat a team like Storm, Broncos, Cowboys, Bulldogs, and even Souths and did it with their defence? Manly and Warriors coach's are babes trying to make a mark in the 'big show' - until the Tigers can prove they can win games with their defence, they will never be top 8 contenders. I don't need ratings to know this. Happy to be proven wrong as the season develops.

2016-03-15T01:50:51+00:00

Sleiman Azizi

Roar Guru


So, basically, you have a system. Which is absolutely fine.

AUTHOR

2016-03-15T01:35:27+00:00

The EYE-BALL Opinion

Roar Pro


Happy to do so Ken, but I have to add all Ratings based assessments are in the eyes of the beholder. I'll try to give some insight ... Firstly, the ratings expressed in the article are Team Ratings based on player and Coach ratings. Each Team has it 'Best team' 1-17 from their roster, injured and suspended players remain in the 'Best Team' until their season is done. Each week substitute players are assessed individually for the injured/suspended player. When replacements do a better job and take over the mantle of previous 'Best Player' permanent changes are made to the 'Best Team' selection. Secondly - each 'Best Player' in each position is rated on 4 scales - Attack, Defence, Spine contribution, and their 'kicking' game in general play. Each game the player’s performance is assessed and modifications made if deemed necessary - either increase or decrease rating. Weekly adjustments are usually limited to [+/- .5] increments. The way this player rating system works is based on the 'Best Player' in the NRL competition in each position and game strength. Each of these players would receive a maximum [5] rating, and all other players are rated 0-5 as compared with the 'Best Player'. i.e. For example - Billy Slayer would be the best defensive fullback player in the game, whereas Tedesco would be the best attacking fullback. In my ratings Tedesco gets a 5 in attack, but only scores a 2 in defence. Slater gets a 5 in defence, and a 4 in attack. This happens for each player in every position in every team. So pre-season is a lot of research and effort, and week to week updates are continual based on player performances. Off the back of last night’s game, and Brooks performance, his positional and spine ratings went up, but his defence rating went down. Goal kickers get their own ratings as well. In addition to the player ratings, from Rd 5-6, 'STATS' ratings are introduced based on previous Rd's played in 2016. These stats are compiled from the NRL website and each 'Match' Stat is entered for each team and then averaged against all the other teams. The Team's Stats rating is calculated on their Team performance benchmarked against the NRL averages using a number variable for comparison. Home and Away performances are included in this Stat calculation. I hope this helps ... but to explain further would really be about comparing ratings analysis and I've been doing this for 30 years across many different sports [Racing, NRL and others], and was first used when I was a Financial Markets operative and trader. I do know what I am doing, and often put my money where my opinion is when Odds, ratings, conditions are all in alignment. Cheers TE-BO

2016-03-15T01:26:40+00:00

Agent11

Guest


This is a really poor analysis, you are basically saying the ladder in round 2 will be the same at the end of the season.

2016-03-15T01:11:19+00:00

Rossco

Guest


So Concerned, who have the Cowboys played that makes them the real deal? One win and a loss to Parramatta!. I didn't claim Souths are the "real deal" did I? But I do question how Cowboys rate above them and, as yet, we have no idea of the criteria that is used.

2016-03-15T01:05:01+00:00

Davico

Guest


So you have written off Wests and have the Warriors 3 places above them even though the Tigers are undefeated, The Warriors have lost both games? You really seem to know a thing or 2 about league!!!

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