It’s the only game in town on Easter Sunday, and by town I mean Wollongong, when two last-start winners come together in a match that holds plenty of intrigue.
Having suffered two heart-breaking losses to start the season under the reign of new coach, Anthony Griffin, how ironic it must have been for the former Broncos coach when his patched-up Panthers mowed down the Broncos.
They scored 17 unanswered points and kept Brisbane scoreless in the second half to defeat the premiership favourites 23-22 last Saturday.
The win came despite the late withdrawal of Trent Merrin (severe virus) and Waqa Blake (corked thigh,) who joined the likes of Matt Moylan, James Segeyaro and Dean Whare in the Panthers casualty ward.
Fast forward nearly 24 hours and the Dragons, who lost a tough game to Melbourne before succumbing meekly away to local rivals Cronulla, rolled up the sleeves at the Sydney Cricket Ground. They inflicted a gritty 8-6 win over old rivals and previously undefeated South Sydney, minus Benji Marshall (hamstring).
Josh Dugan starred in his return to the fullback position having started the season previously as right centre.
Apart from the obvious subplot of Trent Merrin returning to his old stomping ground for the first time since the Shellharbour Sharks junior signed to play with the Panthers, if passed fit Marshall will line up against the kid dubbed ‘Baby Benji’ – Te Maire Martin.
And Martin’s halves partner, Jamie Soward, can equally expect another hot reception in making his third return to Wollongong as an ex-Dragon.
Team news
The Dragons are unchanged from the side that showed considerable courage in the wet to outmuscle Souths.
Whilst Josh McCrone has again been named in the halves, there is a good chance that Marshall will recover in time. Should Benji play, it will be fascinating to see him up against Martin.
Both players have taken similar paths to getting to the NRL, having come to the Wests Tigers via Keebra Park High School.
Martin’s exciting debut against the premiership favourites last Saturday night will no doubt have fans excited about the Junior Kiwi lining up against his boyhood hero.
For Penrith, Merrin has recovered from a severe virus (that some say was glandular fever) and will take his spot at lock with Elijah Taylor returning to a five-man bench.
Blake returns to partner in-form try scoring centre Peta Hiku which sees Isaah Yeo move back into the back-row, with Tyrone Peachey also going back to the bench.
Matt Moylan (back) has not been named but has been training with the team and is a good chance to replace Will Smith at fullback. Former Dragon Jeremy Latimore will miss the game having taken the early guilty plea for a grade one dangerous contact (head/neck).
Peter Wallace remains in the hooking role having assumed the defensive responsibilities in last week’s win over the Broncos, racking up over 40 tackles which importantly allowed Martin to focus on his role in the halves.
Analysis
The Dragons have the worst attacking record so far in 2016, having only scored 26 points in their opening three games to date. The Panthers (61 points) have scored more than double St George Illawarra’s tally of just four tries.
The Dragons do have the slightly better defensive record having conceded just 18 points per game compared to Penrith who have conceded slightly over 23 points per game.
Should Marshall not play this Sunday, the Dragons will need McCrone to step up given the former Raider failed to inspire his side last week.
The Panthers on the other hand, while elated to sneak home against the Broncos, will know that they can’t afford to continue missing tackles at an alarming rate. The Panthers are 16th (103) for missed tackles – 14 more than next worst Gold Coast Titans.
The Panthers’ traditional weakness in attack – lack of running from the halves – may have been solved by the inclusion of Martin. His output of 74 metres from nine runs with four tackle-breaks, three line-breaks and a try to boot was the most productive return from a Panthers half in quite some time.
Also look for the likes of Jack De Belin and Russell Packer to be given the task of limiting the impact of ex-teammate Trent Merrin.
Finally Tyson Frizell, who made 127 metres from 13 runs with 35 tackles in defence, will be looking to get one up on fellow State of Origin back-row candidate Bryce Cartwright. Despite a rocks and diamonds performance against the Broncos, he still managed to produce 136 metres from 15 runs, with four offloads, five tackle-breaks, a line-break resulting in a try, plus 26 tackles in defence.
Key match-ups
Tyson Frizell versus Bryce Cartwright
Jack De Belin versus Trent Merrin
Russell Packer versus Reagan Campbell-Gillard
Key stats
Both teams have ten players each (plus Trent Merrin) returning from the corresponding fixture played in Wollongong back in Round 24, 2015. The Dragons won 19-12.
However, the Panthers will field a side that has ten players that have played less than 50 NRL games each versus the Dragons who have just three.
Overall St George have won 17 and lost 12. But despite last year’s loss, Penrith have won six of the past seven encounters with the Dragons. Penrith’s away record against the Dragons at Wollongong stands at two wins and six losses with their last win recorded in 2014, 16-14.
St George Illawarra hooker Mitch Rein needs one win to record his 50th NRL career win.
Under this week’s referees, Ashley Klein and Adam Gee, Penrith have a combined win-loss record of just eight wins from 24 games played (including two wins from as many attempts versus the Dragons when Gee has officiated the pair). St George Illawarra have enjoyed 17 wins from 32 games.
Teams
St George-Illawarra
1. Josh Dugan, 2. Peter Mata’utia, 3. Euan Aitken, 4. Timoteo Lafai, 5. Jason Nightingale, 6. Gareth Widdop (c), 7. Josh McCrone, 8. Leeson Ah Mau, 9. Mitch Rein, 10. Russell Packer, 11. Tyson Frizell, 12. Joel Thompson, 13. Jack de Belin
Interchange: 14. Ben Creagh (c), 15. Mike Cooper, 16. Will Matthews, 17. Siliva Havili
Penrith Panthers
1. Will Smith, 2. Josh Mansour, 3. Waqa Blake, 4. Peta Hiku, 5. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, 6. Te Maire Martin, 7. Jamie Soward, 8. Sam McKendry, 9. Peter Wallace (c), 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard, 11. Bryce Cartwright, 12. Isaah Yeo, 13. Trent Merrin
Interchange: 14. Tyrone Peachey, 15. Leilani Latu, 16. Suaia Matagi, 17. Elijah Taylor, 20. James Fisher-Harris (one to be omitted).
Match officials
Referee: Ashley Klein.
Assistant referee: Adam Gee.
Sideline officials: Jason Walsh and Kasey Badger.
Stew’s view
The Dragons produced an 80-minute effort built around taking on Souths through the middle. Penrith saved its best football for the second half against the Broncos.
Starting a string of games that sees Penrith play just the once at Pepper Stadium over the next seven rounds, it’s imperative the Panthers convert that 40-minute effort against Brisbane into an 80-minute performance against the Dragons.
In 2015, the Panthers only won just two games away from home, hence away wins are required if the Panthers are to reach the halfway point of the season still in some shape to make an assault on the finals.
If they can do that and avoid a repeat of last year’s drop-a-thon that saw Penrith lose control of a very winnable game on a wintery night in the ‘Gong, they will have too much strike power for a Dragons side still struggling to find the continuity in the backs to score sufficient points.
Prediction: Panthers by 8.
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