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AFL fantasy Week 1: Meet the squad

Joel Selwood. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Roar Guru
26th March, 2016
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This year is going to be different. I’ve matured in AFL fantasy terms, no more putting Jack Watts as my captain and being let down.

No more hoping Daisy Thomas can relieve ‘the good ole’ days’ and I’ve practically given up on hoping Big Boy McEvoy will learn to play as a forward. My AFL fantasy career has been riddled with mistakes, this year I’ve decided finally to take it somewhat seriously.

I scoured the internet forums, joined the Facebook groups and read up all the form guides even tried watching the NAB Challenge, although that did not last long.

I’ve had Patrick Dangerfield go in and out of my side at least six times, changed defenders more than Dale Kickett changed clubs, cleared my entire team several times. Finally I’ve set upon a team worthy of being part of Daunt’s Dynasty.

So starting with defenders first we have.

D1: Jason Johannisen ($426,00) Western Bulldogs
It was a toss-up between Johannisen and his skipper Matthew Boyd, Johannisen impressed me at different times with his speed and dash enough to stick in my memory while Boyd was one of the highest scoring defenders in 2015 Fantasy.

Boyd was originally in the side and I thought he’d be useful to use as a trade town player during the season as he will be rested but Johannisen is likely to play 22 games, is cheaper (I could upgrade my midfield) and in his two NAB Challenge games scored 74 and a mammoth 33 disposal game for 129 points. Maybe not set and forget but worth the punt.

D2: Tom Cutler ($317,000) Brisbane Lions
It was a toss-up between Tom Culter and Christian Salem from Melbourne, Cutler did enough in his two NAB Challenge games scoring 80-odd in both and being cheaper to slot into my team.

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Both players give a point of difference to any fantasy side but I have questions at times over Salem’s kicking and I think Cutler is likely to potentially spend some time in the midfield.

It’s tight so I may watch for Salem and see what he does over the weekend.

D3: Heath Shaw ($532,000) GWS
Heath Shaw is a reformed man since being at GWS, the added responsibility has made him, at least in my eyes, more consistent and that showed last season averaging 96 points.

He’s my set and forget player for the backlines as, barring injury, he’ll play all 22 games and is the go-to-guy to set-up the play from the backlines.

D4: Eric MacKenzie ($205,000) West Coast Eagles
There is some risk to MacKenzie, I am not exactly sure how he’ll return to playing footy and other than the game where the Eagles got mauled by the Crows to the tune of 100 points, I haven’t followed their preseason with much interest – but that’s the NAB Challenge for you.

In his 2014 season MacKenzie did well to average in the 70s and it’s possible, under the Eagle’s ‘web-defence’ which relies heavily on intercept marking, that those points could go up. With only 12 per cent ownership he offers something different but needs to perform early to avoid the chopping block.

D5: Tom Sheridan ($359,00) Fremantle
Looks to be first 22 material at Fremantle this season coming off the half-back line. Tipped by some AFL players as a player on the verge of a breakout season and has reportedly had a great preseason – I am yet to find a player who hasn’t.

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His end of season form saw Sheridan average 77.8 and with a high-score of 102, I am hoping he’ll increase on his 17 games from last year and lift his numbers. Ross Lyon has said he wants to be more attacking so hopefully that involves Sheridan getting possessions at half-back, making it rain points.

D6: Ryan Harwood ($198,000) Brisbane Lions
Harwood has been a popular pick between Fantasy players with 20 per cent ownership and although he did not set the world alight last season averaging 45, his games in the NAB challenge where he scored 66 and 78 indicate some improvement is possibly from the Lions backman.

Add in the fact he only played three games last season and seems to have the trust of Justin Leppistch, I am going to say (and hope) this faith is justified.

Bench players
On the bench I’ve got Marcus Adams, dubbed ‘The Specimen’, from the Bulldogs and Tom Ruggles from Geelong.

Marcus Adams seems destined to debut Round 1 for the Bulldogs after impressing everyone there and Tom Ruggles could potentially fill the spot of Jackson Thurlow in the Geelong line-up.

Both a relatively cheap and at least one should play Round 1, so no drama there.

Midfield
M1: Joel Selwood ($541,000) Geelong ©
Here’s hoping Joel Selwood can get back to his best in 2016, the first season he’s averaged below 100 since 2008.

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The addition of Dangerfield should make it harder to pick who to tag and you’d assume Josh Caddy would have some natural development left in him to help with controlling the midfield.

If Selwood gets to his best he’ll be a good get as he is very consistent. The extra money I got off him also helped upgrade some midfielders so I think he gives a better balance. A solid choice as midfield, get’s lots of the ball, can kick goals and go forward, hopefully delivers.

M2: Jack Viney ($462,000) Melbourne
From a supporters point of view, Viney was terrific last season and went to another level.

From a Fantasy point of view Viney was pretty solid averaging 83. Having seen him play in the NAB Challenge, I think he’s destined to go to another level again and become Melbourne’s best midfielder and in all likelihood he’ll play more than his 16 games of last year which should see his average go up anyway.

Although he isn’t a goal kicking midfield, he’ll win a lot of clearances and contested ball. Another point in his favour is the addition of Tomas Bugg should see him freed from tagging duties.

M3: Dustin Martin ($573,000) Richmond
To Dustin or Not to Dustin. I was scared if I didn’t select him he’d threaten me with a chopstick but his Fantasy numbers speak for themselves having averaged over 100 last year with a high score of 150, he’s a set and forget player which shows with his 55 per cent ownership across all AFL teams.

He can do inside and outside work in the midfield and play as a dangerous forward, what more do you want?

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M4: Gary Ablett (Gold Coast $581,000)
I’ll admit I have concerns over Ablett, he didn’t play preseason and last season’s injuries proved his body may be catching up with him.

However, at this price, against a significantly weakened Essendon, the greatest of all-time could have a field day and I, along with many others, am willing to back the little master in.

Keep in mind from his limited games last season, he still averaged over 90.

M5: Marc Murphy ($544,000 Carlton)
Hoping Murphy will realise his ability and return to his prime AFL fantasy form especially with the tag most likely going to Cripps. Could potentially have a sensational season and provides a point of difference. Started the season in fine form against Richmond with a magnificent 126, Murphy is looking ominous.

M6: Tom Mitchell (Sydney, $593,000)
Over a year ago, I thought this guy was set to go to Carlton, but he stayed. Thank god he stayed. Mitchell was super impressive last season, both in reality and Fantasy terms averaging over 100 and being arguably one of the most improved players in the competition.

I’ve named him as my vice-captain for Round 1 where he plays at the SCG, a ground he averages 135 at over his last for games there. The quality in the Swans midfield should see him escape a tag and pick up where he left off last season.

M7: Jed Andersen (North Melbourne, $244,000)
Moved from reigning premiers Hawthorn to North Melbourne last season and looks set to be vindicated with selection in Round 1. The removal of the sub-vest and North’s need for increased speed on the outside should see Andersen play more games and experience more time on the ground.

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His average will definitely be boosted from 44 and I am tipping him to be around the 75 to 85 mark this season.

M8: Callum Mills
The highly-prized draftee from New South Wales, the first New South Welshman to be drafted in the Top 10 and a Round 1 debutant. Callum Mills is a lock as a rookie for most Fantasy teams and it’s for good reason.

High-wraps coming from good judges in Sydney and Jarred McVeigh, Mills featured prominently in preseason and looks set to play a fair bit of the 2016 season.

Now this has really dragged on, I’ve cracked over 1400 words so I’ll attempt to speed this up from the ruckmen onwards.

Rucks
Sam Jacobs (Adelaide, $533,000) and Max Gawn (Melbourne, $509,000) will form my starting ruck combination. I had Goldstein and Martin originally, but then I wanted a point of difference and more money to reinvest in other areas of the ground.

Sam Jacobs, in his last NAB Challenge game, scored 101 points and averaged 96 last season, I think at his best, he’s one of the best ruckmen in the competition and incredibly durable although I have questions over how mobile he is around the ground.

To counteract this, I enlisted Max Gawn from Melbourne, I genuinely think Max can rise to be in the best three ruckmen in the competition, along with Martin and Goldstein.

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His second half of last year was incredible and his tap work along with his increased mobility and involvement around the ground saw he average 91 including a massive 146 from only 13 games.

The sky truly is the limit for Big Max.

On the bench for the Rucks, I’ve got Sam Frost (Melbourne, $156,000) and Archie Smith (Brisbane, $125,000). Sam Frost looks like he’ll play most games this season as Jesse Hogan’s foil and pinch hit in the ruck.

His average last year of 35 doesn’t inspire confidence but he only played two games in reality after suffering a broken toe in the third and showed some improvement in the preseason.

Archie Smith replaced Mason Cox in the line-up purely because Tom Rockliff said he might play some games this season. That’s legitimately the only reason.

Forwards
In the forward line, I went for value as have most people this season. There was some debate at the selection committee over Tom Lynch (Adelaide, $491,000) having finished the last three games from last season averaging 100 points and having already passed it in the NAB Challenge. However, the likes of Michael Barlow (Fremantle, $515,000) and Luke Daulhaus (Western Bulldogs, $540,000) were preferred due to the fact they’ll play more time in the midfield and both did very well last season to average 93 and 97 respectively.

Barlow’s numbers should increase with Ross Lyon looking to play Barlow more through the midfield where he’s averaged over a hundred in seasons past.

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Jordan De Goey (Collingwood, $342,000) replaced Daniel Wells from my original line-up purely because I found the promise of him playing a full season, most likely, and increased time in the midfield plus natural development an attractive prospect.

Wells scares me with his injuries in recent seasons but I may live to regret this decision.

Sam Kerridge (Carlton, $299,000) got in as a result of his preseason form, where he was outstanding for Carlton and will play most of the games this season barring injury.

Mitch Brown (Essendon, $191,000) starts on the field for me along with Daniel Rioli (Richmond, $191,000). I met Rioli’s Aunt when I was in the Tiwi Islands at the end of last year and she said he was a very good player, so I followed his preseason, saw he was selected against Carlton so I took a risk and hope it pays off.

Mitch Brown with his dual position status as a forward and defender, given Essendon’s playing stocks, should play a lot of games this season at either end of the ground, I am assuming he’ll make money and I may be able to trade up or if he has a good run keep him.

Dean Kent (Melbourne, $175,000) and Nick Kommer (Essendon, $125,000) are my bench options with Kent likely to come close to playing all 22 games for the Dees and that plus the fact Melbourne should get the ball forward more should see his average rise.

Nick Kommer is my forward line emergency, I think he’ll play games because of the situation at Essendon which may make him worthwhile in the rounds to come and at that price you couldn’t go too far wrong.

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So to conclude the longest Fantasy Article in human history, I am incredibly worried I’ll miss out on Dangerfield or Fyfe’s points and I’ve staked a lot on certain players returning to their best (Gray and Selwood) or having breakout years (Viney, Cutler, Sheridan). However, as someone once said, you need to risk it to get the biscuit.

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