It wasn’t so long ago that hope for a New York Knicks fan was more than just some abstract, vague concept at the end of The Shawshank Redemption. In fact, it was only two months ago. But then something intervened, the same thing that always intervened.
The New York Knicks.
First though, here’s the good news.
Despite hitting the rookie wall with a thud, Kristaps Porzingis is still a 7’3 building block for the future.
In February, rumours were swirling about Carmelo Anthony’s troublesome knees and him being a potential shutdown candidate. He’s responded with his best month of the season, rediscovering his three point stroke in March and looking like prime-Melo.
After a generation of giving away first round draft picks for Antonio McDyess, Stephon Marbury, Eddy Curry, Anthony and Andrea Bargnani, the Knicks finally have all of their own draft picks – after this year, of course. The final injustice.
The salary cap situation is not an atrocity for the first time in recent memory. (Knicks fans have spent the past decade waking up in cold sweats screaming out the cap figures of Jalen Rose, Steve Francis, Marbury, Jerome James, Amar’e Stoudemire, Bargnani and all the other god-awful contracts this team has taken on).
Here’s the bad news.
Everything else.
Do you know how you get a clean cap sheet? By not having players worth giving money to.
Outside of Porzingis, Anthony and Robin Lopez, the Knicks have no concrete foundational pieces on the roster. Jerian Grant is wet cement mixture, someone who could form into a solid, change of pace guard, or could become Mardy Collins 2.0.
Langston Galloway is about to be a free agent (and isn’t that good), Cleanthony Early is recovering from a bullet wound, and the Sixers didn’t want Tony Wroten. Arron Afflalo will probably leave at the end of the season, or worse, he’ll stay. None of the 47 power forwards on the roster are power forwards in 2016, and Sasha Vujacic is Sasha Vujacic.
The Zinger, the Melo and the Ro-Lo aren’t a hopeless core. Hit on your draft picks, sign mid-range free agents of the Afflalo variety, hope that Porzingis becomes 83 per cent of Dirk Nowitzki on offence and better defensively, pray for Carmelo’s knees, and you might have the semblance of a contender in time with the right infrastructure. The problem is that the current infrastructure has the integrity of a $26 waterbed in the middle of a warzone.
Phil Jackson has become the John Goodman character in 10 Cloverfield Lane. He’s holding onto a certain idea of life at the expense of, you know, looking at the world. The triangle in 2016 isn’t just antiquated – it’s irresponsible.
Despite having an offensive superstar in Anthony, a structural dynamo in Porzingis, an elite offensive rebounder in Lopez (third in the league), and a perfectly serviceable point guard (on offence, at least) in Jose Calderon, running the triangle the Knicks have the 21st ranked offence in the league. There is no universe where the talent on the Knicks should have that ranking while Portland and Charlotte’s talent finds them at sixth and ninth.
In the modern NBA there are two things you want to do on offence: attack the rim and shoot threes. The Knicks rank 20th in free throw rate and 23rd in three point-attempt rate. Suffocated by the triangle, basketball’s least breathable shape, New York plays at a snail’s pace (26th in pace) and it’s not easily discernible what exactly they’re good at.
No, they don’t really turn the ball over, that’s something. But what’s the point of holding onto the ball if you can’t put it in the hoop? The Knicks are turning the ball over with mid-range jump-shots clanking off the rim. (The one stat where the Knicks are in the top 10? Long twos attempted. Of course.)
Defensively, the Knicks deserve some credit. They’re not good on defence (20th in defensive efficiency) but they’ve got the right idea, taking away the three point line (26th in three point attempt rate against) and forcing a heap of long twos (which is so brilliantly ironic – the Knicks defensive strategy is to force the opposition into the shots that… they love to take themselves on offence. Of course).
The problem is that they give up a tonne of shots at the rim. Of the nine teams that give up the highest percentage of shots at the rim, eight of them are going to miss the playoffs (the outlier is Oklahoma City, ranking a worryingly high second).
The hope in late January for the Knicks wasn’t misguided. Porzingis, Anthony, Lopez, cap space and all of your own draft picks isn’t an awful set-up. It’s one that the other team in New York would start the Second Cold War for. But the pieces are so loose that they need someone to connect them (and it’s not the Connect-4 master, Rajon Rondo). But as long as they’re being pieced into a triangle, hope is futile.
Some coaches are unambiguously great (Gregg Popovich, Rick Carlise and Stan van Gundy), unambiguously good (Mike Budenholzer, Brad Stevens and Frank Vogel), and some are just ambiguous (Quin Snyder, Fred Hoiberg and Billy Donovan). And then there are coaches who are just indisputably terrible, like Kurt Rambis.
When he was coaching Minnesota, Rambis benched Kevin Love for Anthony Tolliver. He played Corey Brewer and Ryan Gomes more minutes per game than Love in Love’s sophomore season. Oh, and he went 32-132. That’s 100 games under .500.
Those Minnesota teams weren’t exactly loaded with talent (there was a lot of Jonny Flynn going on), but what talent there was Rambis sent to hell. If given the reins long-term, he’ll do the same in New York.
Porzingis’s production hasn’t been dreadful under Rambis so far (although it has been worse, albeit possibly due to other factors such as fatigue) but Rambis’s quotes about the Latvian star are terrifying. He’s spoken of his desire to play Porzingis at the three, which is like saying you want to play Lionel Messi at goalkeeper. It reeks of P.J. Carlesimo playing Kevin Durant at shooting guard, still one of the dumbest things that has ever happened.
The two most unique, valuable skillsets in the NBA right now are a point guard who can launch threes the second you lose them on a pick and roll (see: Curry, Stephen and Lillard, Damian) and a big man who can both protect the rim and shoot from deep (see: Ibaka, Serge and Davis, Anthony). Porzingis is the latter, and the Knicks’ future depends on his development. Rambis is not the man for the job; in fact he’s the last man for the job. Byron Scott might be a better coach than Rambis, in the same vein that Donald Trump might be a better leader for the free world than Ted Cruz.
You know who would be a good man for the job? Tom Thibodeau – a coach with a 255-139 win-loss record, a coach who revolutionised, nay, invented, modern NBA defence, a coach who led the Bulls to the playoffs every season despite his most reliable offensive player at various points being Nate Robinson, Joakim Noah or Luol Deng. Thibodeau’s gritty, hard-nosed defensive style would resonate perfectly with a Knicks fan-base that still glorifies and longs for the Patrick Ewing-Charles Oakley era and the smash-mouth approach of Pat Riley and Jeff Van Gundy.
But Thibodeau will never be hired because of a shape. A shape that is outdated and futile in 2016, a shape that Phil Jackson is hanging onto either out of arrogance, stupidity, Stockholm Syndrome, or likely, all three. As long as Jackson is around, as long as his triangle-obeying zealots and disciples are the only candidates for the job, the Knicks will continue to be doomed.
Doomed by a freaking three-sided shape.
Knickradamus
Guest
I wouldn't blame the Knicks season on the triangle. There offense has been up and down, there were patches when they're offense looked sharp and then when they were settling for mid range shots. The season wasn't too bad and for many writers and analysts it was better then anyone expected. The Staps pick up was huge and according to Phil he's off limits forever. I beat Kupchak's still having nightmares about it.... Melo is averaging career highs in boards and assists. Jerian Grant didn't have a great rookie season and I know that Walt Frazier wasn't overly impressed with his handle, but some games he'd come out and completely change the momentum of the knicks. Galloway had a quiet but surprisingly efficient season. The most obvious flaw for the knicks was the lack of a proficient PG which was highlighted all season. I know people say that the Triangle negates the need for a PG because of the constant passing and movement in the triangle. But the Knicks and especially Melo would benefit immensely from a 2nd on court leader. Calderon didn't cut it this year and he's pretty expensive as well... But I dont think Phils 12 mil can convince anyone to take on that contract. Knicks bench had a terrible 2nd half of the season which is another reason for there woes. So to next season what can the Knicks do? They don't have their 1st (a nuggets swap (melo trade) goes to Toronto (Bargnani trade)) or 2nd round picks in the draft (Note the 2016 draft is predicted to be one of the weakest in a few years). They don't really have anything to offer other then Staps or Melo to trade up in the draft so the draft is off limits. FA this year will be quite exciting however the knicks current rebuild will be offputting to potential all stars which for the first time in History makes them the last dog at the bowl (Lakers will also feel this) in the off season. They should have there eyes on a PG but who is worth splurging on? Mike Conley is probably the best fit for what they need but there's no indication he wants to leave memphis, Brandon Jennings? Rajon Rondo? Norris Cole? ISH SMITH!!! The off season isn't looking that great either. Kind of sad given im a huge Knicks fan but Staps has definitely given us hope. In my opinion Knicks should look to go into free agency looking to pick up some youth coming off there rookie contracts at around mid level like Kent Bazemore, Bayless, Norris Cole, Teletovic, Batum and maybe Eric Gordon. And pray that someone has a break out year..
Kingcowboy
Guest
This is the kind of stuff I am talking about. These young guys need to learn the value of teamwork but hey I guess it is all Byron Scott's fault. http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/la-lakers-reportedly-feud-dangelo-russell-video-nick-young-women-prank-032916
pete bloor
Guest
Good read Ikjyot. I just have a couple of questions. You have ORtg as the “Opponent Team Points Scored per 100 possessions” Is that just a typo? The idea that playing good defence and good offense wins championships and that outscoring opponents gets you to the playoffs would, on the face of it, be pretty much the consensus view anyway. I don’t think anyone is suggesting that is likely to change rather the discussion is what leads to an efficient offense. So, parking the commentary around “playoffs” and three pointers (because it only really takes into account one side of the ball) wouldn’t there be more benefit in looking at what makes an efficient offence and defence rather than the playoff/championship result itself as that seems to create noise (that and the relevant stats for those is always going to be the points differential ones right given they encapsulate the outcomes of all the others.) A cursory look suggests three pointer percentage is more relevant than other offensive stats and that (caveating this with I'm not the mathematician you are and only pulled this together in 10 minutes) but 2pt FGA actually has a slightly (basically immaterial) negative correlation to ORtg where as 3pa and FTa seem to have some positive ~.3 (making them obviously has more a positive result!) Also interesting that you seem to have used all the old box score metrics – does this mean you did the analysis with “advanced” metrics but they had no relevance, or just used the bog standard bball reference cut and past? I would have thought efG% would end up being better than fg% given it better reflects the points allowed per shot?
joe
Guest
The triangle works well when you have Jordan/Pippen/Rodman or Shaq/Kobe as your foundation.When its implemented with Carmelo & whoever else the Knicks roll out there each night the triangle isn't quite as effective. And the only people who look at the Knicks as some sort of great franchise are their fans & sportswriters in NY,who talk about the Knicks as an upper tier organization. They have won 2 titles,in the early 70's!!.Apart from that they've been a joke the majority of the time.They were relevant in the 90's but never actually won anything & played ugly grind it out basketball that was tough to watch. If you run thru the teams in pro sports who have won multiple titles since the early 70's when the Knicks last won anything its a long list yet the media & fans talk about the Knicks as though they are some sort or perennial contender with a slew of titles decade after decade.The Knicks by all rights should be the butt of jokes for incompetency for failing to win in over 40 yrs.Somehow their "success" in the 90's is looked at as a great period in the franchise history which shows how low the bar has been set for the them. While ever the Dolan kid is in charge the Knicks will continue to be a laughing stock.Won't be long & the 50 year anniversary of their last title team will be getting celebrated at MSG,thats about as close to a title the Knicks will be getting to IMO.
Ikjyot Singh Kohli
Guest
The flaw in this article: "In the modern NBA there are two things you want to do on offence: attack the rim and shoot threes. The Knicks rank 20th in free throw rate and 23rd in three point-attempt rate. Suffocated by the triangle, basketball’s least breathable shape, New York plays at a snail’s pace (26th in pace) and it’s not easily discernible what exactly they’re good at." This is a delusion, see this article: http://relativitydigest.com/2015/11/23/the-three-point-shot-delusion/ The ACTUAL statistics and numbers show that this conception of the "modern-day" NBA is false and fools too many people such as the writer of this article.
pete bloor
Guest
I don't like the Zinger at the 5 for extended minutes just yet - he isn't big enough and doesn't have his "man strength" yet (As David Thorpe used to love saying). In a couple of years sure but they'd be risking him getting pounded right now.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
You can show tough love without actually impeding their development. Players learn by playing. The hint is in the name. And I've had plenty of young men work for me, so you assume wrong. If you want to use that analogy, what Byron did for large parts of the year was the equivalent of me shoving a kid in the basement and not actually have them work. That's not beneficial to anyone.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Yeah, I was only joking, I would take Scott over Rambis. But it's kinda like choosing Pitbull or Donald Trump.
Kingcowboy
Guest
Impede the development of young players? Please, some of these kids need tough love. I am assuming you have never had young men work for you. Habits are learnt early in one's professional life, either good or bad. The best thing for D'Angelo Russell's development was to make him earn his minutes. All kids are going to make mistakes but at least he is holding them accountable.
Swampy
Guest
I think the Knicks should try and make Lebron's dream come true - and make up the greatest 'old man' team in the history of the NBA (well certainly better than Dallas' current version). Imagine Lebron, D-Wade, CP3 & Melo finally all together with Rambis on the bench and Jackson in the front office - it really would be a team straight out of 2008. Trade Porzingas away for Bosh & Winslow and the team would be complete (Winslow seems like the perfect guy to carry their bags, defend all 5 opposition players - at the same time - and never complain about not getting passed the ball on offense for ten games straight). Sorry to Knicks fans but it's fun picking on you.
Marshall
Guest
Great article, and it really is frustrating to see the wastage in NY A line up of spread pick and roll with Porzingis at the 5, Melo 4, Calderon at the 1 (laser from deep) and two wings (say afflalo and grant) could be dynamite offensively Probably couldn't stop anyone, but who cares? At least there's potential to be top 10 on one side of the ball there. Currently, there is only depression. When you don't have your first rounder, you may aswell try and be good with what you've got, as it might entice free agents that it's worth listening to the Knicks.
Jay Croucher
Expert
Ha. No non-Lakers fan thinks less of Byron Scott than me, but the guy DID make the Finals and that '08 New Orleans team was awesome when he won Coach of the Year. (Byron Scott, Avery Johnson, Scott Brooks and Sam Mitchell all have won Coach of the Year awards in the past decade by the way. What the hell is going on.) That doesn't count for much in 2016 - 2016 being a land where Scott has no place - but he does have some money in the bank. Rambis on the other hand is bankrupt. He has nothing to hold onto, nothing but dreadfulness.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I take issue with anyone saying Byron Scott isn't the worst coach in the league! You can have Sam Mitchell, you can have Kurt Rambis, you can have Randy Wittman. When you absolutely, positively have to lose a game, impede the development of your young players, and provide daily idiotic quotes to do with your 1982 tactics, give me Byron Scott, and no other.
Swampy
Guest
Oh my the Knicks don't even really have a pick ?
pete bloor
Guest
The triangle only works if you give players the freedom not to use it. That's a really hard freedom for a new coach to give, generally it's only from a position of heightened expertise that you relinquish control.. Even then you need to modify it a little to suit the modern game. I get Jackson's thought process on it sadly the skill set which makes you an NBA doesn't necessarily mean you've got the kind of next level mind to absorb the decision trees of the triangle. I disagree a little bit with slamming the Durant at 2 move, I think being forced into playing against smaller faster guys was both part of the development curve and to avoid him getting just smashed by more muscular guys - remember Durant wasn't very strong, even accounting for his size, coming into the league. This way for an entire season he had to sue his feet, the plan I think was to always transition him to the bigger wing spot. Personally I think it was one of the few times I've seen an NBA coach actually do what is right by the player rather than what will keep his job and I think we've just highlighted why they don't.
Swampy
Guest
Haha - poor Knicks fans. Probably get the frozen balls in the lottery and the number 1 pick. Just don't draft Skal Labissiere.... well of course you will. At least give Jackson credit for drafting porzingas.