This A-League finals series is wide open

A six-team finals series in a ten-team competition is, on the face of it, a bit of overkill; reward for mediocrity, unrealistic, call it what you will.

But this season’s finals are proving the exception to the rule.

In what has been quite simply the most sparkling A-League season in history, the final six clubs left standing are all potential champions. There is so little between the teams that if reigning champions Melbourne Victory were to win their semi-final this week from sixth place and go on to defeat minor premiers Adelaide the following week, it would not be regarded as an upset.

The glorious uncertainty of this season has never been better exemplified than in Round 27. Four sides – Adelaide, Western Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne City – could have finished as high as first and as low as fourth or fifth.

Perth Glory could have finished second before the round started but an inexplicable meltdown against Sydney FC combined with other results consigned them to fifth. Only Melbourne Victory knew they weren’t moving up or down, and yet they played their part in the most thrilling match of the weekend, a 0-0 draw with Brisbane which bucked the goal-scoring trend in this season’s competition and proved you don’t need goals to have a great match.

That result sent the Roar from potential premiers to third place and lessened the likelihood of a grand final going back to Lang Park, the scene for some of the A-League’s most memorable deciders.

It could still be that the grand final heads north, but the Roar would need to beat Melbourne Victory this week then vanquish Western Sydney the following week, and hope Adelaide lose their semi-final as well.

For their part, Adelaide have been magnificent since November, losing only once. It’s a turnaround that should be remembered for years to come, and their form suggests the championship decider could be headed to a brand new venue in the Adelaide Oval.

It’s not an ideal football venue, but the Reds’ Hindmarsh Stadium is not big enough to host a grand final.

The Reds will play the lowest-ranked winners from this week’s semi-finals, so the only team they are certain of avoiding is Brisbane. That leaves both Melbourne clubs and Perth Glory as the Reds’ potential opponents.

After last weekend’s feisty clash with Melbourne City, there will need to be extra padding in the player’s tunnel if John van’t Schip’s City defeat the Glory this Saturday. Adelaide swamped City’s playmakers last Friday night, leaving the highest-scoring team in the competition’s history scoreless for only the second time this season.

The Reds’ 2-0 win was sealed before half time after a totally ridiculous and unnecessary challenge by City goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen on Reds midfielder Stefan Mauk gifted Adelaide a penalty.

Perth Glory’s awful display during their 4-0 loss to Sydney FC in the last game of the regular season has suddenly cast doubt on their finals campaign. Without the brilliant Diego Castro, Perth looked guileless and adrift against a team without a win in eleven league games.

Glory coach Kenny Lowe will be hoping that it was an aberration, but if Castro is not in the side for the game against City, the Glory’s amazing run to the finals might be in vain.

By the time Perth and City play on Saturday, they’ll know who their next opponent will be. If Brisbane beat Victory on Friday night, they will travel to Adelaide. But if Victory win, Muscat’s men will face the Reds and the Glory or City will go to Western Sydney.

The Victory are the wildcard team in this finals series. They may well be casting an eye towards their Asian Champions League game on April 19th in Shanghai. But if they beat the Roar on Friday night, they don’t play in the ACL until after the A-League grand final, and that game is at home against Gamba Osaka.

To beat the Roar this week they’ll need to rely less on the inspired performance of goalkeeper Lawrence Thomas, who denied John Aloisi’s men time and again last weekend.

Football Federation Australia have navigated the logistical nightmare of predicting the grand final hosts by booking stadiums in five different cities to cover themselves. While they’ll never admit it publicly, the financial bean counters at FFA will be hoping that the most unlikely of scenarios does not occur – a Perth Glory versus Melbourne Victory decider in Perth – given Perth Stadium’s limited capacity and the unavailability of Subiaco Oval.

In this season of unpredictability and ebbs and flows, where the lead has changed hands almost as often as Donald Trump has said something controversial, perhaps we will finally get certainty in the closing three weeks.

There will be a shock along the way (I have a sneaking suspicion Melbourne Victory will knock the Roar out this week) but I’ll stick my neck out with a not-so-bold prediction. Adelaide will beat Victory in week two and Western Sydney will beat Melbourne City, setting up a decider between the Reds and Wanderers in Adelaide on the first day of May.

Now just forget everything you’ve read and I’ll remind you of it if I’m right.