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The five-day turnaround: Brisbane wins again

13th April, 2016
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The Broncos take on the Roosters in the first game of Round 6.. (AAP Image/Dan Peled)
Expert
13th April, 2016
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4067 Reads

There has been a fair bit of talk over the opening six rounds about the fairness of the draw. In specific, the instances of teams having to put up with five-day turnarounds.

The NRL have been getting nervous about it themselves, as demonstrated by them flying Canberra back home via charter planes from Bankstown airport because it was only five days until the Raiders had to be back at Parramatta Stadium playing the Eels.

While five-day turnarounds have been a thing since the advent of Friday night games, since Monday night – and now Thursday night – footy began they are almost unavoidable.

So just how many five-day turnarounds are there? To the end of Round 20, which is as far as the NRL has posted so far, there are 288 instances of a side taking the field for a game (there are 144 matches). Of those 288 instances 44 involve five-day turnarounds. That is 15 per cent of the time.

That breaks down as follows:
• 14 matches with both competing sides coming off a five-day break; and
• 16 matches with a team on a five-day turnaround playing a team without one.

So in 28 instances, the teams are playing other sides who are also coming off shorter preparation. That actually seems like the people at NRL HQ have done a pretty good job in minimising the number of five-day turnarounds, if in only 16 instances out of 288 (5.5%) does one side play a better-rested side.

However, that doesn’t mean it has been fairly distributed. Just look at this:

Five-day turnarounds by club

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Four Three Two One None
Sea Eagles
Wests Tigers
Roosters
Rabbitohs
Dragons
Raiders
Bulldogs
Panthers
Storm
Knights
Sharks
Cowboys
Eels
Broncos
Titans
Warriors

Further, while a short turnaround does have an impact, a crucial factor is if you add genuine travel to the mix.

Although Sea Eagles fans might not agree, genuine travel that effects a player’s conditioning does not include travelling from Brookvale to Cronulla or Penrith. Genuine travel is to or from New Zealand, Melbourne, Townsville, Brisbane, Perth, the Gold Coast or Canberra.

There have been five instances so far of a team with a five-day turnaround playing away from home that involve genuine travel. In all cases they have lost, even in the two instances where they have been playing sides with a five-day turn around themselves.

• Round 3: Roosters lost to the Cowboys. North Queensland were coming off a five-day break with no travel. The Chooks didn’t score a point.
• Round 3: Wests Tigers lost to the Titans. Gold Coast coming off six-day break with no travel. The Wests Tigers ran out of puff and were outscored 24-8 in the second half.
• Round 6: Dragons lost to the Broncos. Brisbane coming off six-day break with no travel. The Dragons didn’t bother the scorer.
• Round 6: Raiders lost to the Eels. Parramatta coming off a six-day break with no travel. Canberra looked lethargic and were blown off the park.
• Round 5: Knights lost to the Storm. Melbourne, coming off a five-day break with no travel, overran Newcastle in the last 20 minutes.

There are three more instances to come of sides having to deal with a genuine away match on a five-day turnaround this season:
• Round 7: Bulldogs versus Warriors
• Round 20: Panthers versus Broncos
• Round 20: Storm versus Roosters

Far be it from me to suggest that you put a three-leg multi on the Warriors, Broncos and Roosters, but I’ve heard far worse ideas.

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So are the five-day turnarounds with genuine travel distributed evenly among the clubs?

Five-day turnarounds with genuine travel by club

Two One None
Knights Tigers
Roosters
Dragons
Bulldogs
Panthers
Storm
Raiders
Warriors
Eels
Titans
Cowboys
Sea Eagles
Rabbitohs
Sharks
Broncos

No, they aren’t.

The side that came last in 2015 has been burdened with two almost certain losses – one of which has already been realised. Meanwhile, last year’s grand finalists don’t have one between them.

So if there are distinct losers, are there winners from the five-day turnaround scenario?

Clubs playing teams with five day turnarounds
*Figures in parenthesis ( ) = teams played with genuine travel on top of five-day turnaround

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Five Four Three Two one none
Roosters (1) Rabbitohs (0) Storm (1) Broncos (2)
Bulldogs (0)
Cowboys (1)
Eels (1)
Wests Tigers (0)
Raiders (0)
Sharks (0)
Titans (1)
Sea Eagles (0)
Knights (0)
Warriors (1)
Panthers
Dragons

It seems the Roosters and the Rabbitohs have done pretty well out of this. However, between them they only play one five-day turnaround team with genuine travel. Further, in four of those nine instances both the Sydney sides also have five-day turnarounds themselves.

Of the eight instances this season of sides playing teams on a five-day turnaround with genuine travel, the Brisbane Broncos are the opponent 25 per cent of the time. Further, when they poleaxed the Dragons last Thursday, it was the Red V’s second game on the road in 11 days.

One of the best ways for the NRL to avoid five-day turnarounds would be to evenly distribute the days on which each side plays. So does that happen?

Team Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Night/day
Brisbane 3 8 6 1 0 16/2
Canberra 2 1 9 4 2 9/9
Bulldogs 3 4 4 3 4 13/5
Sharks 0 0 5 8 5 10/8
Titans 0 2 7 7 2 11/6
Sea Eagles 2 2 6 1 7 16/2
Storm 0 1 6 6 5 12/6
Knights 0 0 10 6 2 7/11
Cowboys 2 3 9 1 3 17/1
Eels 2 5 6 2 3 14/4
Panthers 1 2 7 7 1 8/10
Rabbitohs 3 8 3 4 0 14/4
Dragons 3 1 5 5 4 9/9
Roosters 2 2 5 5 4 11/7
Warriors 0 1 11 4 2 8/11
Wests Tigers 1 2 7 6 2 10/8
Even distribution 1 3 7 4 3 11.5/6.5

No, not at all.

As you can see, the Panthers are the only club that gets close to what an even distribution of games would look like.

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The NRL try to keep the Warriors from having five-day turnarounds by shoving 60 per cent of their games on Saturdays. We should note that the Warriors have three games which involve six-day breaks with travel, arguably the equivalent of a five-day travel for other teams (the Cowboys could possibly argue this too).

Before you freak out about the Broncos and Rabbitohs having a monopoly on the Thursday and Friday night spots, remember that they get those spots because they bring in the ratings. Channel Nine and Foxtel pay millions of dollars for those eyeballs, so we’ve got to suck that imbalance up.

However, the Broncos do seem to have really got the best deal from the NRL draw up to the end of Round 20:
• They play only one game with a five-day turnaround, against an opposition with almost the same handicap as well as having had to travel
• They do not have a five-day turnaround that involves genuine travel
• They play two sides that have five-day turnarounds, with both of them also dealing with genuine travel, and
• They play virtually all of their games at night so they can get in a good rhythm

No one gets it as good. It couldn’t have been much better if Wayne Bennett himself had drawn it up!

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