Race 7 at Randwick on Saturday (3.45pm AEST) is the Weight For Age All Aged Stakes run over a distance of 1400m.

This is another wonderful old race on the Australian calendar, first staged in 1865. It even predates the more illustrious Doncaster Mile, held at the same track and distance by one year. Being a Weight For Age race it generally attracts a smaller field, but arguably has better quality horses contest it.

In 2004 a decision was made to lessen the distance of this race from 1600m back to 1400m. I’m not always a fan of tinkering with tradition, but in this case I think it was a pretty good call. It always seemed a bit strange to hold two Group 1 mile races, at the same Carnival, a week or two apart. And now it becomes a more logical progression for the sprinters coming from the high class Sprint races at 1200m, The TJ Smith especially. The George Ryder Stakes, once run two weeks prior, now has much less of an influence on the outcome of this race, given it is run a month earlier.

A look at the last twelve winners below gives some indication of the quality type horse required to win this race. There are some memorable names there, and the vast majority of them had very high winning strike rates. Age, Gender, Barrier Draw, Last 3 starts (x denotes spell), Finishing positon in last start race (and distance), with starting odds complete the profile.

2015 – DISSIDENT 5g (6) 312- third Futurity Stakes 1400m (Caulfield) $10
2014 – HANA’S GOAL 5m (6) x06- sixth Doncaster Handicap 1600m $10
2013 – ALL TOO HARD 3c (7) x11 first Futurity Stakes 1400m (Caulfield) $2.75
2012 – ATLANTIC JEWEL 3f (1) 1×1 1st Sapphire Stakes 1200m $1.20
2011 – HAY LIST 5g (7) 212 second TJ Smith 1200m $2.60
2010 – HOT DANISH 6m (7) x12 second TJ Smith 1200m $6
2009 – DANLEIGH 5g (4) 1×2 second The Galaxy 1100m $8
2008 – RACING TO WIN 5g (7) 412 second George Ryder Stakes 1500m $1.80
2007 – BENTLEY BISCUIT 5g (3) x41 1st TJ Smith 1200m $2.80
2006 – PARATROOPERS 3g (8) 012 second George Ryder Stakes 1500m $1.80
2005 – SHAMEKHA 4m (7) 6×1 1st TJ Smith 1200m $3.75
2004 – PRIVATE STEER 4m (3) 231 1st Doncaster Handicap 1600m $2

Pertinent statistics follow:
– 10/12 finished either first or second last start.
– 11/12 last raced in a Group 1 race against all ages. The only won that didn’t was Atlantic Jewel and she had previously won at Group 1 level.
– 11/12 were 3-5 years old inclusive.
– 12/12 started between barriers 1 and 8 inclusive. 8/12 drew barriers 6-8.
– 9/12 had 7-14 days between runs.
– 8/12 started $4 or under in the betting.
– 8/12 raced in first 4 horses early.
– 12/12 had won at 1400m or beyond.
– 5/12 were a Filly or Mare.
– Average winning price $4.40 so it’s quite a good race for those well fancied in the betting market. Four of the last seven winners have been $6 or better though so the tide seems to be turning toward those at a value quote.

Given those factors I think you would put the three year old Press Statement on top on a historical basis. The only slight negative he has is a four week break between runs, but two of the last three winners (Dissident and All Too Hard) had a 49 and 63 day break prior to this. As a bonus he even jumps from barrier 6 which has provided the last two winners.

Most of the others have only one negative too but it is more significant one. Either the class of their prior start (Black Heart Bart, Malaguerra), or the performance was lacking (Kermadec, Rebel Dane) or the 1400m distance is a bit of a query (English). The remaining horses (Goldstream and Perignon) have more than one historical anomaly.

Race Tempo
Unlike in recent previews it’s hard to sugarcoat the speed of this race by saying it will be truly run. There is no established leader among the eight runners, though it would be somewhat of a surprise if Hugh Bowman didn’t press forward to try to lead with Press Statement, as was the case in the Caulfield Guineas, when he elected to overcome a wide barrier by doing just that, and with great success.

Malaguerra is the other certainty to race somewhere near the pace. If any other jockey decided to push forward it would probably be detrimental to their chances, with the possible exception of the Italian import Goldstream. His best, and maybe only hope of winning, would be to take up the running. It really does seem a race that is going to suit an on pace type, and historically it has been advantageous to be prominent early.

Weather and Track Condition
As I write this the track is rated a Soft 5, but the weather forecast is good with little or no rain expected. We should see a far drier surface than Randwick has served up for the first two weeks of the Championships, therefore a Good 4 rated track should avail itself on Saturday.

Analysis and assessed price
1. KERMADEC – Is the best performed horse in the race and he would almost certainly win it with a repeat of his second placed performance in the Ryder Stakes behind Winx a month ago. He left Press Statement (3rd) in his wake there and he meets the three year old on 0.5kg better weight terms here. His performance in the Doncaster since was abominable though, so you have to be very forgiving and put your trust in the assumption that all is well now. The failure was put down to an elevated heart rate and back issues which have been attended to twice by a Chiropractor. The Stewards report also mentioned he returned with blood in his mouth, so it may have been a combination of those three things or a domino effect that led to such a poor performance. His trainer Chris Waller also mentions he is more of a sprinter so has elected to come back 200m in distance from what seemed to be his best trip? Whichever way you look at it the last start failure doesn’t appeal on a historical basis, and very few horses improve so drastically to win a Group 1 race at their next start. $5.50

2. BLACK HEART BART – Comes off a win in the Group 3 Victoria Handicap over 1400m at Caulfield last start. That would be a nice historical precedent if it had been a Group 1 race as was the case with Dissident and All Too Hard who won at the same track and distance before winning this. Having said that he did only just miss out on his first Group 1 success at his prior start in the Newmarket. Swap positions on the track with The Quarterback that day and he probably wins that race, so his ability and class isn’t that big an issue for this race. His main problems could be a lack of speed up front, and his ability on right handed tracks (one failure). He has only had the two starts for trainer Darren Weir who surely has worked him in the right hand direction before heading North? What is encouraging for this horse is his 7-2/11 record with more than two weeks between runs (21 days for this race), and his 5-2/7 record at 1400m, definitely his best distance. Also a positive is his 6-3/10 record in fields with 1-10 runners, opposed to his 5-6/18 with larger numbers opposing him. Maybe a slow speed won’t be to his detriment looking at those statistics. He looks a definite winning hope. $6

3. REBEL DANE – Doesn’t look in good enough form at present though he does have Blinkers coming off for this race. They have been applied for his last three starts and haven’t been an asset. Weight For Age racing has always been bit of a task for him, and I suspect that is because he is a smallish horse not best suited to carrying big weights. His 2-6/19 career record with more than 58kg is quite damning, so it’s hard to get too enthusiastic about his chances in this race. His resume also suggests that he is a horse that appreciates being fresh (3-3/7 with two or more months between runs). He is capable of lifting his performance and perhaps getting into the placings, but a win would seem unlikely. $20

4. MALAGUERRA – is one of, if not, the most improved horse in the country since he was gelded, and had a Cross Over Noseband applied, having won six of seven races since, only just beaten in the one defeat. He had won only two of his nine starts prior to that. He handled his first right handed track start with aplomb last start winning at Rosehill and there doesn’t seem to be too many flaws to pinpoint in him. His formlines have been very solid (Reldas, Good Project), but this standard of race is a whole new ball game for him. There isn’t a lot to suggest he can win a Weight For Age race with 59kg conceding weight to some useful three year olds and having no concession against proven group class performed gallopers. On the flip sided a horse called Generalife beat the same galloper (Target in Sight) in the lead up to this race last year, and was only just over a length behind the winner Dissident. I think it’s fair to rate Malaguerra is a better horse than Generalife was at the same stage, and I doubt this field is any better in quality than last year’s edition. Hope springs eternal for him, and his 1400m form and on pace ability are definite positives. $5.50

5. GOLDSTREAM – Is an Italian Derby-winning import having his first Australian start and which is his first in racetrack appearance in just over 7 months. He has been working above expectations showing a bit of sprinting ability, which is the reason he comes to this race at 1400m rather than go to a longer race first up. Apparently he still does a lot wrong in his work and can get very stirred up on race day, so isn’t the finished article yet. It’s interesting that his last two starts have been failures in higher class, but both were on left handed tracks. His record in the Sydney direction reads 5/5 and is appealing, and if he does race on the pace here he could be a bit of a surprise packet. He is yet to run below a distance of 1600m, so would have to be right on his game to topple most of these. $20

6. PRESS STATEMENT – is the winner of six of his ten starts, and is the logical favourite on form and historical factors. Chris Waller has saved him for this, rather than going to the Doncaster or TJ Smith Stakes, and has always been quite effusive in his praise of the horse. I have to say I was a little disappointed with his run in the Ryder Stakes because I thought he would have finished closer, but he did beat home Happy Clapper who was a good runner up in the Doncaster, and placed third in the Queen Elizabeth last week. That horse relegated Azkadellia to third in the Doncaster, and she was impressive in winning the Coolmore Legacy last Saturday. His formlines are solid, and his on pace ability should be an asset in this race. He looks the one to beat although the three year olds are yet to prove themselves this Autumn, much to my chagrin! $3.25

7. ENGLISH – is a three year old filly trained by Gai Waterhouse who proved she was classy enough to compete in this race when running a good third in the TJ Smith Stakes here two weeks ago. That was over 1200m though, and her only run beyond that distance was a failure in the two year old Sires Produce at this track last Autumn. That defeat was put down to the wet track at the time so the jury is out a little with her. My feeling is she might struggle at the trip in a race of this quality but a slow pace could be advantageous, and a positive ride could reap dividends. It has been a very lean Autumn Carnival for the stable so perhaps it could change with this filly in this race, remembering that the fairer sex do have a good record in recent years. She would be the first of them to win this race without a prior victory at this distance. $6.50

8. PERIGNON – is the second of the Fillies to contest the race this year and does have a placing at 1600m to her credit, suggesting the 1400m here isn’t an issue for her. Two wins from eleven starts doesn’t appeal, and she does seem to be an inferior class filly to English, on what we have seen so far. A wet track and wide run in transit last start suggests she should be forgiven for that run, and the Blinkers going back on her might be an asset. But both her wins have been on the fresh side, and this is her fourth run this preparation. She also tends to get back in her races and might not get a race run to suit. Hard to get too enthusiastic about her chances. $25

Conclusion
Maybe too many questions to be answered here.

– Is Kermadec over his injury problems?
– Can Black Heart Bart win at WFA level and cope with the right handed direction
– Can Malaguerra cope at this level?
– How will Goldstream perform at his first start here?
– Is Press Statement a little overrated?
– Can English run out a strong 1400m?

We need to look for value and although it’s not my preferred option to be selecting favourites in my previews, it’s hard to go past Press Statement as top selection, analytically and historically. The average winning price in this race isn’t high and we are due a favourite to win after two double figure winners the past two years.

At the time of writing $3.50 can be obtained, and that is reasonable value that might vanish as the race comes closer. I definitely wouldn’t be taking less than $3 though, because he just doesn’t rate as that good a thing.

Both Malaguerra and Black Heart Bart appeal statistically, though the former horse is no real value, whereas the latter definitely is. Kermadec definitely is too, if you are prepared to be forgiving. Those four horses round out my top Quartet for the race in that order.

1. Press Statement
2. Malaguerra
3. Black Heart Bart
4. Kermadec

Bet Suggestion
I would be prepared to back Press Statement at $3.50 or better and probably save on the Quinella with the stablemate Kermadec, hoping that he returns to his best. At $7 or better perhaps at least a saver beat on Black Heart Bart won’t go astray.