So what can we expect from Round 4? Here some tips with one big call from each game.
West Coast v Richmond
The Tigers travel to Perth knowing that they have a fantastic recent record there but also knowing they are playing unaccountable, disinterested football. Despite racking up numbers, they seem to be struggling with the concept of having to run both ways. The Eagles come off their second straight six-day break following a torrid Derby, but have the firepower to win by 22 points. The big call is that Damien Hardwick will avoid clichés post match and take accountability for the Tiger slump.
Essendon v Geelong
The Cats have started the season in an intriguing manner, dominating the reigning premiers and then struggling in Round 2 before doing what they should have done against the Lions. The Bombers are what we thought they would be – heavy losses against decent teams and very competitive against mediocre teams. Both James Kelly and Mathew Stokes have proven they have gas left in the tank, but this match against their former premiership team mates won’t end well as Geelong win by 56 points. The big call is that the Bombers will have more possessions at a higher disposal efficiency than the Cats.
Hawthorn v St Kilda
Most people have tried to talk themselves into someone other than Hawthorn winning the flag, and it looks unlikely to happen. They remain the best team, with a system that develops players better than others. And they are doing all this without Luke Hodge, Liam Shiels and Jarrad Roughead! The Saints are on the right track and likely to throw their fair share of punches in this game. They can match the Hawks for running and possibly midfield power, but Hawthorn win by 33 points. The big call is that the Saints will lead at quarter time and be within 10 points at three quarter time.
Brisbane v Gold Coast
These two sides enter the Q Clash at opposite ends of the spectrum. The Lions were expected to struggle and so it has been. The losses of Dayne Beams and Tom Rockliff have hurt, this team simply cannot afford to have its best players unavailable. The Suns could not have been more impressive – despite them beating three teams with a combined one win, they have done so playing daring, attacking football and not entirely relying on Gary Ablett. The Suns have won the last three games in this series and it seems certain that will stretch to four on Saturday as they win by 26 points. The big call is that Aaron Hall will be best on ground again, giving him 11 Brownlow votes after four games.
Carlton v Western Bulldogs
The Blues are in a unique spot this season where results don’t really matter as no-one expects them to be any good. They won’t be, but Jacob Weitering and Charlie Curnow have already shown signs of what the future holds. They enter this game against a very good Bulldogs team coming off a demoralising loss and the loss of their heart and soul, Bob Murphy. It will take them some time to adjust to life post-Bob, but they won’t find it tough this weekend as they beat Carlton by 40 points. The big call is that the Bulldogs will be the first team in AFL history to pass 520 possessions.
Adelaide v Sydney
The match of the round between the bolter most likely to finish top 4 and the side perennially underrated but always around the mark. These are two of the top five contested possession teams, and both go inside 50 more often than most so the defences will be kept under pressure at both ends. The home ground advantage figures to be a factor here, but isn’t it just normal to underestimate the Swans, by any number of means? Adelaide will win a thriller by 9 points, and the big call is that Daniel Talia will hold Lance Franklin to one goal or less.
GWS v Port Adelaide
The Giants have had a huge fortnight as they have split games against Geelong and Sydney, but there is no doubt they are a relevant AFL team for the first time in their existence. Their midfield depth is copious, and the talent is reflected in their performance. The Power are an enigma; it is still not obvious whether they will finish top 4, 5-8 or just outside the eight and games like these will go a long way to determining that fate. The Giants should win a close game by 11 points, the big call is that Shane Mumford will register 50 hit outs and 12 tackles.
Collingwood v Melbourne
Two traditional rivals head into a crucial game knowing that a loss will almost spell the end of their season. Collingwood have led for less than 10 per cent of game time through three rounds, while Melbourne have played three games decided by 13 points or less. The Pies have slightly more midfield depth and with the return of Steele Sidebottom and should beat a Demons side missing Bernie Vince by 12 points, with the big call being that Melbourne will struggle to make it halfway to the 131 points they scored against North Melbourne last weekend.
North Melbourne v Fremantle
The Kangaroos have made the most of a soft draw to start the season 3-0 while the Dockers face a huge uphill battle just to qualify for finals, having started the season 0-3. The loss of Aaron Sandilands figures to tilt the scales heavily towards Todd Goldstein dominating in the middle, and with the teams evenly matched in the midfield, it is expected that North’s more impressive firepower should see them win this game by 18 points. The big call is that we will look back on this weekend as the beginning of Ross Lyon’s first ever rebuild as the season becomes a lost cause.
Agree? Disagree? Comment and let me know!
Vocans
Guest
Adelaides mids are getting better each game after Dangerfield. However, the Swans may give them a reality check. That's a big question for this game. I think the game comes down to mids and defences because the forwards are potentially equally balanced. From the Crow viewpoint, the game is about improvement, whereas the Swans have a claim to superiority they need to maintain. The Crows have been improving each game and no Crow follower can reasonably want anything more. As they say, May the best team win, MH.
Michael Huston
Guest
Sydney have the tools to bombard Adelaide, it's just how they use them. For example, there will obviously be a s---load of balls coming in to Buddy and Tippett and the rest of the forward line, but it's a matter of Buddy and Tippett's marking (neither of which has been impressive so far), how accurate they are when opportunities do come (neither, especially Tippett, has been startlingly accurate), and how clean the mids are with getting it inside 50 (which I'd give about a pass mark so far, but nothing more.) Sydney's midfield allows us to dominate possession and get the ball inside 50 a hell of a lot, but because our forward line can be both dysfunctional and wasteful all at once, it never reflects on the scoreboard. I think Adelaide may punish us for this.
jax
Guest
I don't think that it's a matter of teams needing to invent something to beat the Hawks - granted most of them do need to improve while a handful of others don't need to do a lot as their best is good enough to match it with them. The problem is that some of those teams don't bring their best when it counts and the Hawks almost always bring their best when it counts which is remarkable in itself. That's why the Hawks don't finish on top of the ladder but they keep winning the GF and that's what separates them from the rest of the pack. Very good, well articulated and balanced analysis Paicey!
Vocans
Guest
Hope You're right MH, but can the Crows hold Tippett and Franklin. It will require a consolidated defence with all pitching in. The Crows are definitely developing one, but have some way to go before it reaches its full potential. Do The Swans have the forward defensive pressure to counter Laird and Smith off the rebound? Do the Crows have the mids to match it with the Swans? Will McVeigh need a game or two to get back to his best, becau the Swans will need him at or near it in this one? Lots of interest in this match.
macca
Guest
"5. Carlton might be rejuvenated but not enough to take on this mob." The draw hasn't done the blues any favours - almost go a win over the middle of the road tigers but since then their rejuvenated energy has run smack bang in some very good sides - I just hope that by the time they get to playing some other teams destined to miss the 8 they haven't lost all their vigour.
Michael Huston
Guest
Think the Crows will just have our measure. Even if we win the midfield battle, I'm not sure we'll be able to stop their run given our hapless we looked against GWS in that area. They have too msny forward weapons and unless our back six all play corkers, it's hard to see them not compiling a massive score. And at our end, I can't imagine our forward efficiency drastically improving in the space of one week. Should still be close though.
Aaron
Guest
not sure if its average on quality, rather its the mix that is never quite right with port, plus their best team hasnt been on the park yet
richo
Guest
no enigma regarding Port, they are an average list that had a season out of the bag due to some surprise coaching strategies. they've shot their only bullet
Antony Pincombe
Roar Rookie
1. Richmond will be annihilated by Eagles. The simple fact is Richmond don't play two way footy, take too long to move the ball playing 'Tempo Footy and don't have enough forwards capable of kicking a big score. A bit like Freo in the scoring department really. Eagles by 60+ 2. You are right, the Bombers are just making up the numbers this year but will trouble some of the developing and underdeveloped sides. But against a slick outfit like the Cats a total blow out 102pts. 3. As you say Hawks are the litmus and other sides not only have to match them, they have to invent something to beat them. Saints are nowhere near that yet. Slick Hawks captain back will kill Saints. 55pts. By the way Liam Shiels came back last week. 4. Lions couldn't win this if they started today and had a ten goal start. Suns are just too good and the Lions lack of key position players is really going to tell here. The Suns have very good rucks/forwards, key forwards and key backs. Too tall, too strong, too fast. Suns by 120 pts. 5. Carlton might be rejuvenated but not enough to take on this mob. Expect a big blow out. Bullies by 60 pts. 6. Adelaide are travelling well. Better than last season when they met Swans. Their coach had just died and the Swans were playing for Goodsie. Crows were shell shocked but played pretty well in the first half. There are a few factors that need examining in this game. The Crows mids have been playing well but so far haven't met such a formidable midfield. Luke Parker is fast becoming arguably the best mid in the comp, add Hannaberry, Keiren Jack (who is in devastating form), Kennedy, Mitchell, McGlinn and offsiders Cunningham, Heeney, Towers and Robinson and this midfield plays deep. I am not sure Sloane, Crouch, Thompson & co play that deep. Talia keeping Buddy to nothing is a little hopeful I'd think, in the mood Buddy is in. Then you have to contain, Heeney, Towers, Sinclair/Tippett, resting mids & Papley. Whether the Crows have the backs to do that is yet to be seen. As to the strong Crows forward-line, Betts has historically been very well held by Nick Smith and Walker & Jenkins have not kicked too many on Grundy and Richards. Lynch is the key here if he can get away and create mayhem he could be a problem but Rampe will probably get him and he is the best shut down back in the AFL. Swans by 20. 7. Port need to play two way footy. They are great on the attack but don't defend naturally. They seem to have to be forced to defend. GWS will destroy Port on the rebound and will also win the midfield battle. Giants by 35 pts. 8. Don't care how many players Pies get back. What footy's about today is being accountable and they aren't. In general I think Melbourne are far more accountable. Bernie 'Idiot' Vince will be missed but I still think they will have far more accountability than the Pies who are playing the worst brand of footy since they were last bottom. Dees by 25 pts. 9. Freo couldn't beat Wantirna Thirds. They have been totally insipid this season. Father time has caught up with a few of their older players and injury has cruelled them. Norf are travelling well and Goldstein will kill them in the ruck, don't care how good Griffin is Goldie is better, Freo can't score and norf do nothing else. Norf by 80 pts.
macca
Guest
Yes I would prefer Jamison than Rowe but I expect (and have thought so since before the season started) that the Key defenders will be rotated through a bit, Weitering and Plowman will be given preference and Rowe and Jamison will only play in the same side through injury or to give Weitering a break - I expext Jamison will be out for a couple of weeks then Rowe will drop out for a couple. I would also suggest Rowe (198cm & 97kg) was deemed a better match for Boyd (201cm 102kg) than Jamison (193cm 97kg) Weitering (195cm 90kg) or Plowman (193cm 91kg)
Stewie
Guest
But surely you'd rather have Jamo rather than Rowe? Was he just omitted, or was there an injury?
Don Freo
Guest
I agree with Steven's call on Port...and the importance of games such as this. I don't agree that last week's Derby was "torrid". WC is only just hitting its stride. As McKenzie settles back in, WC will tighten its defense further. WC by 9 to 10 points a quarter. 38points. Goldstein is great around the ground. Don't be too sure he will have much of an advantage over Griffin in the centre. Griff is a genuinely good ruckman.
macca
Guest
Hopefully another step in the BLues long term transformation is taken this weekend with Plowman replacing Jamison in defence. If he can live up to expectations he shapes as a very good long term partner for Weitering with both being good users of the ball and more attacking than both Rowe and Jamison. I like the addition of Lamb & Sumner as they bring pace - hopefully they can show a bit.