Bel Esprit Stakes 2016 preview and tips

Race 8 at Caulfield on Saturday (4.35pm AEST) is the Listed Bel Esprit (Sire of Black Caviar) Stakes over a distance of 1100m.

It pales in comparison to the famed Oakleigh Plate that is run here in late February, but it’s interesting to note that two horses that have run very well in that race the past two years are pretty close to the top of the betting market here. A few in the race are almost certainly looking at some bigger races in Adelaide and Brisbane in the coming weeks.

Race Tempo
There is good speed in the race with the likes of Sheidel, That’s A Good Idea, Hellova Street, Girl Guide and Bullpit engaged. How fast they go up front is problematical but on paper I’d expect a truly run race to ensue that gives every horse its chance of winning.

The top weighted Under The Louvre is one of the aforementioned previous Oakleigh Plate starters, who has become a little unpopular with some punters having not won a race since this time last year, which was nine starts ago.

Since then he has been beaten four times at less than a $4 price but I can’t say I’ve been overly surprised about some of those defeats. He has won only one race (1/9) beyond 1200m, and four of those last nine starts have been at 1300m or more, though he did go very close to winning the Group One Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes at 1400m last Spring, which was a tremendous effort.

Also in a 29 start career he is yet to win a race with two weeks or less between runs, and at three of those past nine starts he only had a two week respite. He ran a very close second in the 2015 Oakleigh Plate when he was first up off a break very similar to this current one. His only first up failure was in the Spring here at this distance, but I think trainer Robert Smerdon had deliberately left him a bit short of full fitness.

Trainer comments suggest he should be fit enough for this race, and he only has to shoulder the big weight well and overcome a wide barrier to be a major winning chance. I’m not too concerned about the barrier because he does get back in his races, and likes to get to the outside to come home with a barnstorming run.

That’s A Good Idea is a Sydney-rained horse in the hands of Peter and Paul Snowden (started his career with Joe Pride). He has the ability to lead here from a good barrier and his first up run last preparation was good enough to win this, finishing just over a length behind Terravista in the WFA Premier Stakes at Randwick.

He was scratched last week from the Hall Mark Stakes at the same track, and his only Victorian start, a dismal failure at Flemington down the straight, is probably best forgiven. Around a corner here at Caulfield he can be competitive, but he is only getting 1kg from a dual Group One placed galloper, which is a little surprising.

The Tasmanian galloper Hellova Street has an enviable career record that reads 9-7/17, and he flies first up from a spell. His last start defeat of Geegees Doublejay conceding that horse 2.5kg looks a good formline for this after that horse ran very well at Moonee Valley when second to Beau Rada, who runs here.

GG’s JJ conceded 1.5kg to that horse, and received 1kg from the WA mare Sheidel whom he relegated to third place. Helova Street concedes both those horses 2kg here, which suggests he is as good a chance as both to win the race.

The problem might be overcoming a horror barrier, because he probably doesn’t have the pace to lead, but likes to settle just off the pace. He has won from wide barriers before though, and his strike rate is comforting when you start taking into account any negative factors. There is no doubt whatsoever he is massive overs at $21 early fixed odds. He should be half that price.

Four year old mare Pittsburgh Flyer has always had her fair share of ability, and she almost placed at Group One level in the Oakleigh Plate two starts back. That was a surprise performance to many at 40-1 odds, but it probably franked the fact that she is somewhat of an 1100m specialist. She is 3/7 at that distance and it is the only one she has been able to win at in a 14 start career.

You can draw a line through her last run at this distance too which was her last start in Sydney, a total failure due to not handling the right handed track. She handles all track surfaces though, and has drawn the inside here which could be a positive or a negative. She does get back and will need the breaks to go her way, but she looks very hard to beat if they do.

Husson Eagle doesn’t win out of turn, and is a bit of an enigma after running an absolute shocker here at this track and distance two starts back. That is still unexplained, but he returned to somewhere near his best in a competitive little sprint race at Oakbank a month ago. It’s worth noting he has raced very well when Michelle Payne has ridden him (especially of late), so he has to be considered some hope, especially for a placing from a reasonable barrier.

Sheidel is a WA mare in the Hayes/Dabernig stable who hasn’t had the best of fortune since coming to Victoria. She drew wide in a 955m scamper around Moonee Valley at her first run, and couldn’t get anywhere near the lead, which she had been accustomed to in her home state. In fact she looked like possibly the quickest horse in the country in her wins over there. She then she missed the start in her second run here at Sandown and never really recovered that day. It was also noticeable that Beau Rada finished the race off a lot better than her, after being well astern at the turn.

I think her chances might rest on whether she can lead this field which is possible from a useful barrier. Damien Oliver aboard should be a bonus, and interestingly she didn’t win first up or second up in Perth last preparation. She did come good third up though which is the scenario for this race. 1100m might give her more time to get into full flight (last two runs below that distance), and she looks well weighted off that first run in Victoria. She is a leading chance, but perhaps a false early favourite given she is yet to win in the East.

Former Hayes/Dabernig trained four year old mare Girl Guide resumes in the stable of Ciaron Maher. She can’t be totally ignored given she was only 1.5 lengths from Griante last preparation at level weights. That mare should have won the Oakleigh Plate this year I believe, and then went on to win the Group One Galaxy in Sydney to all but prove that. This mare is rising seven now and hasn’t won in twelve starts. She will need to lift considerably to overcome a wide barrier to win, but at her best is capable of doing so.

Beau Rada is an interesting case study because he has had 22 starts and none of them have been over further than 1000m. He goes to the 1100m for the first time here and his racing style of late suggests he is looking for it. Looks can be deceiving though because an extra 100m isn’t always a positive for a horse that is so adept at a shorter trip. Nevertheless he has a good turn of foot, and might be one that prefers a tighter circuit like Caulfield where he is yet to run.

The Danny O’Brien trained Bullpit has hit a purple patch of form of late and can’t be left out of the chances either from a perfect barrier. He held off Beau Rada last start at the shorter 1000m (best distance) but he has won at 1100m on a couple of occasions. The negative for him seems to be the Caulfield track (0-0-0/4) but he is going to provide at least nuisance value for the likes of Sheidel, That’s A Good Idea, and Hellova Street up front.

The Goldolphin-owned, Freedman-trained Java looks a chance on his first up run last September when just beaten by Fell Swoop (second in WFA TJ Smith and Oakleigh Plate) at roughly level weights, but his form tapered off quite badly after that. He has had surgery on a hock during his spell which could be a positive or a negative.

There is no doubt he does run very well fresh though, and it’s just a matter of whether he can overcome an awkward barrier and cope with the pressure up front. He is probably good enough at his best but on the other hand this would be a career best performance if he were to win. He won four of his first six starts but hasn’t won any of his last six. If he can’t shape up here his best might be behind him.

The Greg Eurell-trained We’ve Got This is a promising horse in career best form but he needs two scratchings to gain a start. He is yet to win below 1200m but is 4-3/8 at that distance and 0/5 beyond it. Perhaps there has been a realisation that he is a short course sprinter only and has been deliberately set for this. From that perspective it’s a pity he is only an emergency, given he has drawn a barrier that would give him all the favours in the race. This would be his acid test, but a dry track would be in his favour (0/4 wet).

If he gets a run on a dry track he has to come under serious consideration as his $7.50 early price suggests.

Those not mentioned look to have the job ahead for different reasons.

Conclusion
On their respective runs in Oakleigh Plates I see Under The Louvre and Pittsburgh Flyer as the ones to beat.

UTL was beaten narrowly carrying 52.5kg on a 50.5kg limit weight in 2015 whilst PF was beaten 0.95 of a length in this years edition carrying 52kg on a 50kg limit. Both carried 2kg over the limit and UTL was a length superior in slightly faster time. Given that factor he might be a 2kg superior horse at this distance compared to her but he has to concede her 4.5kg.

She also has residual fitness in her favour and more hope of an economical run from an inside barrier. They are both around the same price early so Pittsburgh Flyer looks the better value.

There are lots of other good chances, but the one who represents the biggest overs seems to be the Tasmanian Hellova Street. He could provide an upset if he can get across from the outside barrier early, and plenty of horses have won Oakleigh Plates at this track and distance from wide barriers.

Sheidel could improve third up and is a winning chance if she finds the lead. The above-mentioned make up my top four, but if We’ve Got This gains a start he has to go into all multiples.

1. Pittsburgh Flyer
2. Hellova Street
3. Under The Louvre
4. Sheidel

Bet Suggestion
Pittsburgh Flyer for a win at $6 or better, and an each-way play on Hellova Street at $21 or better.