We all enter a new season with certain preconceptions based on the form of the previous year, off-season additions and subtractions, and a bit of speculation.
But there comes a point in each season when it’s time to ditch those preconceptions and trust that what teams have shown us is who they really are.
For better or worse, Round 5 looks a lot like that time.
It started on Friday night, when the electric Adelaide Crows took the fight to defending champs in another outstanding game of footy, something that is fast becoming synonymous with the Crows.
Coming off three impressive wins, Adelaide fell agonisingly short against the Hawks, but lost no admirers. They look every bit a contender.
Things didn’t go so well for the Crows’ crosstown rivals on Saturday night. After being humiliated by the Giants in Round 4, the Power huffed and puffed all week, but couldn’t maintain the fight for long after a quarter-time scuffle that will see several Port players lighter in the pocket.
The Cats handed the Power their third loss by at least eight goals in four weeks. There’s no reason to think Ken Hinkley’s mob is anything more than mediocre.
Of course, the Dockers would kill for mediocre right now. Any hopes they had have turning their season around were destroyed yesterday when the plucky Blues made Fremantle the last winless team of the season.
The signs have been there for a month that the Dockers are a bad team, now they are impossible to ignore. How Ross Lyon handles the remaining 17 games will be fascinating.
Like Fremantle, the Tigers have been given the benefit of the doubt by some, but the disappointing form of the first month was franked at the MCG on Sunday night as Richmond proved no match for the improved Demons.
Trent Cotchin has faced plenty of criticism for his leadership this year, but the skipper can hold his head high after his 32-disposal, 20-contested possession performance against Melbourne.
The same can’t be said of star defender Alex Rance. Rance showed none of the qualities that earned him a place in the club’s leadership group when delivered a cowardly strike to a prone Jack Watts in the back of the head late in the loss. It was the action of a frustrated man, the kind of thing that happens late in the year when a player is fed up with the season. For Rance to do such a thing in Round 5 is indicative of the strife his club is in.
No such strife for the Demons, however. For the first time since 2011, Melbourne have won back-to-back games. Perhaps more significantly for the bigger picture though, their 129 points against Richmond meant it was the third-straight week they topped the ton – you have to go back to 2011 for the last time they did that, too.
The dour Demons of recent years appears no more. These Dees are still tenacious around the contest, but willing and able to whip the ball forward and hit the scoreboard – their ball movement is light years ahead of what it was eight months ago.
Just how good Melbourne are is yet to be seen, but apart from a tough-to-forgive slip-up against Essendon in Round 2, it seems pretty clear that the Demons are no longer a bad footy team – faint praise though that may be, it’s significant progress.
“Come at the king, you best not miss.” – Omar Little, The Wire
There’s more luck than we sometimes like to admit when it comes to deciding close games – a tricky bounce here, a dodgy decision there – but it’s more than just chance that has seen Hawthorn win three games in a row by three points.
So often tight matches are decided by mistakes rather than magic.
The Hawks are talented, mature, disciplined and confident – they don’t make many mistakes, particularly late.
Eventually they’ll lose a close one, but someone is going to have to beat them, because they’re unlikely to beat themselves.
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