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I was wrong on two counts about North Melbourne. Firstly, I thought their recruitment of Jarrad Waite was pointless, and secondly I believed they could not win the flag this season.
Right now, Waite is arguably the most valuable player in the AFL. He has been imperious over the first six rounds. Not only has he been a dynamic presence inside 50m, hoarding goals, but he’s also been a terrific team player, bringing his teammates into play as well as applying heavy defensive pressure.
If he can produce this kind of commanding form in September the Roos are a major threat to Hawthorn’s drive for a four-peat. Yet when North announced late in 2014 that they had picked up then 31-year-old Waite as a free agent from Carlton, I scoffed.
My cynicism was two-fold – I didn’t think Waite would have any impact at North, and I figured his recruitment was another sign the Kangaroos were recruiting top-up players, wrongly believing they were a realistic chance of winning the flag in 2015.
Waite quickly proved me wrong, having a fine debut season for North, playing 23 games and slotting 42 goals, the most he had ever kicked in his 13 seasons in the AFL. The Roos made the finals and their mature-age recruit was influential in their elimination final and semi final wins, booting four and three goals respectively.
Waite was off the boil in the preliminary final against West Coast and North fell short of making their first grand final since 1999. On the strength of 2015 alone, his recruitment was an unqualified success. But as the 2016 season began, I still didn’t rate North as a genuine flag threat.
Hawthorn, West Coast, Fremantle and Sydney all were superior teams in my eyes. Even as the Roos began to string together wins to start this season I wasn’t convinced they could lift the Cup. I was among the doubters whom Josh Elliott referred to in his piece for The Roar on Saturday.
The last couple of weeks have changed my mind. Although the Roos are yet to have been tested by Hawthorn, West Coast or Sydney, the quality football they are playing can no longer be ignored. Nor can the fact that they look a very strong chance of being 9-0 in a few week’s time, with easy games coming up against St Kilda, Essendon and Carlton, before they tackle the Swans in Sydney in Round 10.
Should they go 9-0, from there it would be a relatively straightforward task to finish top four and earn the double chance. To snare a flag, teams need quality tall forwards. Amid the heightened intensity of finals football, these big men are invaluable.
The Roos are stacked in this regard. They have three tall threats up forward in Waite, fellow veteran Drew Petrie, and gifted youngster Ben Brown. At 194cm, 197cm and 199cm, respectively, they can stretch every defence in the land.
North are unusual in playing three forwards of this size. Most teams cannot afford to implement such a setup because of the lack of mobility it offers, and the danger of being exposed on the ground and on the rebound.
Waite’s pace and agility offer the Roos this luxury. He may have the frame of a key forward, together with the aerial prowess, yet he moves like a medium-sized footballer, even at 33 years old. Waite always has been a phenomenal athlete, possessed of vast footballing talent. Previously, though, he exhibited these gifts only in bursts.
His continual injuries did not help, but there also was a sense that Waite wasn’t committed to fully exploiting his ability while at the Blues. Finally, in his 14th AFL season, he has become the player many of us long thought he could be.
So far this season, no player in the competition has been more valuable than Waite. The stat that is getting the most attention is Waite’s goal tally which at 22 sets him in second place in the AFL. This prolific goalscoring has been built on his dominant marking – he is top five in the competition for contested marks and has taken the second most grabs inside 50m.
Yet Waite has offered the Kangaroos much more than just a rich avenue to goal – he has been the complete package.
This season, Waite has set up his teammates like few other players in the land. His haul off 11 goal assists is equal first in the AFL and, among the top 20 goalscorers in the league the next best is seven assists. He has been unselfish, showcased fine decision making, and been clinical in his ball use, with an elite disposal efficiency of 77 per cent.
What has been the biggest surprise has been Waite’s fanatical pressure on the opposition ball carrier. Of the leading 20 goalkickers in the AFL this season, only one player – Cyril Rioli – has laid more tackles than Waite. North coach Brad Scott recently told The Age that he was delighted by Waite’s defensive efforts.
“He’s getting some reward offensively at the moment for all his hard work but that’s not what his game build on, his game’s built on defensive pressure.
“You could make an argument there aren’t any better key forward pressure players than Waitey, and I wouldn’t think that would have been his legacy from early in his career so he’s done a terrific job to make that the cornerstone of his game. He tends to get involved in the game offensively when he’s doing that.”
Right now, Waite is an unstoppable force, and if he maintains that momentum he could just drag the Roos into the grand final.