The Hollindale Stakes is Race 7 at the Gold Coast on Saturday, run at 3.40pm. It signals the start of the Winter Carnival in Queensland, even though it is still autumn.
Originally known as the Southport Cup, it has adopted the name of the former Gold Coast Turf Club chairman Alan Hollindale since 1992. He stood as chairman for more than 20 years and was the creator of the now famous Magic Millions.
The race is a Group 2 event run over 1800 metres, and under weight-for-age conditions. There are some famous names on the honour roll, including dual winners Rough Habit and Shogun Lodge. But maybe the most famous of all was Caulfield and Melbourne Cup winner Might And Power who took out this event in 1998.
Below are the last 13 winners of the race with relevant statistics, including age, gender, barrier draw and starting price.
• 2015: Leebaz – 5g (4) $8
• 2014: Streama – 5m (4) $4.25
• 2013: Lights of Heaven – 5m (9) $3.25
• 2012: Shez Sinsational – 4m (13) $5
• 2011: My Kingdom of Fife – 6g (7) $3.25
• 2010: Metal Bender – 4g (6) $5.50
• 2009: Fulmonti – 6g (2) $21
• 2008: Scenic Shot – 5g (4)$3.25
• 2007: Coalesce – 6g (10) $13
• 2006: Above Deck – 4g (10) $5.50
• 2005: Platinum Scissors – 5g (10) $10
• 2004: This Manhood – 6g (3) $6.50
• 2003: Bush Padre – 5g (2) $4.75
The most relevant stats are shown below and weighted (1-3 points) to be shown in table below.
| HORSE | A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | TOTAL |
| 1. Volkstok’n’barrell | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | ||||||
| 2. Hauraki | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13.5 | |||
| 3. Excess Knowledge | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | |||
| 4. Leebaz | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13.5 | |||
| 5. Sir Moments | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | |||
| 6. Strawberry Boy | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | ||||
| 7. It’s Somewhat | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13.5 | |||
| 8. Kool Kompany | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 3 | 2 | 10.5 | ||||
| 9. Sir John Hawkwood | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 3 | 2 | 10.5 | ||||
| 10. Honey Toast | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | 2 | 2 | 11.5 | ||||
| 11. Puccini | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |||||
| 12. Sakhee’s Soldier | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | |||
| 13. Spiritjim | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |||||
| 14. Old North | 3 | 1.5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11.5 |
A) 13 aged four through six – three points.
B) 13 finished in first five placings last start – three points.
C) Nine had 14 days between runs – two points.
D) Nine at least placed at weight-for-age level beyond three-year-old age – two points. Five won to Group 3 level above three-year-old age- one point.
E) Eight ran in a 2000-metre race last start – 1.5 points
F) Ten had last run interstate or in New Zealand – two points. Seven from Sydney – plus 1 point (maximum three points).
G) 11 were in first five early stages of race – two points.
H) Nine started $6.50 or less – two points. (I have given two other horses one point this year in case with the possibility they might start close to that price.)
I) 12 drew barriers one through ten. The only horse to win from outside barrier ten did so on a heavy track – two points.
Track conditions
The current track rating is a Slow 6 but the weather in south-east Queensland at the moment is dry and far warmer than what we would normally get in early May.
We really should get an ideal surface for this race meeting and no horse under those circumstances should be disadvantaged with the possible exception of one that is looking for a wet track.
Race tempo
Strawberry Boy and Leebaz are the two natural leaders in the race and the former horse is more so a miler so can be expected to take up the running and set a better than average speed for this type of race.
Excess Knowledge also likes to race on pace and needs to get cover from a wide barrier so he should ensure that the leaders are kept busy. It’s Somwhat races on the pace and the local mare Honey Toast won’t be too far from the pacemakers either.
I’m not sure about the racing pattern of the Chris Waller-trained French import Spiritjim, but I’m doubtful he will be able to keep up with the first half dozen or so early. The New Zealander Sakhee’s Soldier can race handy too.
Overall a well-educated guess would suggest that the midfield and backmarker types could be suited in a truly run race, which isn’t always the case for this event. The three-year-old colt Old North raced on pace last start and has drawn barrier one here. He should be expected to at least hold his position, and it’s possible a mid-race move might be attempted to utilise his light weight.
Analysis
We had a good result in this race last year with Leebaz (equal top rated) using the same formula above. Interestingly he scored 16.5 points but the top raters this time have a few less points and there are far more of them.
Part of the reason for the lower points score is that the gap between this meeting and the last day of the autumn carnival in Sydney is now three and four weeks, not the one and two weeks it has been in previous years. That complicates matters a little, and probably gives the local horses with recent runs under their belt a better chance than normally would be the case.
One of those, Sir Moments, did run a close second in this race last year, and he comes into this with arguably better fitness levels at his fifth run from a spell. Last year he came in off four runs, out of a 1630-metre win at Doomben with 57 kilograms.
This time around he ran a close third at the Sunshine Coast at 1600 metres with 61 kilograms. Both attempts have been off a two-week break, so we are entitled to expect a similar type performance from him. He has every chance of turning the tables on Leebaz for starters given that horse is a month between runs, far more than the seven-day break he had last year. He has drawn reasonably well and has every chance to get cover with the expected truly run contest up front.
Leebaz came into this race off a second placing in a Group 3 race last year at Randwick, but this time comes off a very poor failure, albeit at Group 1 level in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at the same track, on a possibly unsuitable surface. Interestingly he is unbeaten three from three, with three to four weeks between runs, and it is a four-week break for him coming into this. He will make his own luck from a good barrier, and it’s not impossible that he could make it two wins in a row. Given the historical figures above he shouldn’t be anywhere near the $51 price that is being offered up.
Hauraki is the logical favourite for the race if he can repeat his form of the early autumn in Sydney. The Australian Derby runner-up ran two third placings behind the champion mare Winx, and then was narrowly touched off by The United States in the Ranvet over 2000 metres at weight-for-age level.
That pair put a gap of four lengths on the third placegetter. That made him a popular elect for the Queen Elizabeth Stakes but he performed well below par there to be beaten more than seven lengths. His winning strike rate of three from 15 is a concern, as is the fact that he hasn’t won for 14 months, which was ten starts ago.
Back to a dry track though should help, along with a good barrier which should afford him every chance with top jockey James Macdonald aboard. It’s a matter of whether you want to take the $3 about him, or wait until he wins again before you part with your hard earned. I’d set a minimum price of $4 given his month break between runs.
It’s Somewhat is the stablemate of Hauraki and ran similarly in the Queen Elizabeth to be just ahead of Hauraki. Looking at this career record though he might be better suited to the month between runs. Macdonald would have had the choice of rides, and has stuck with the favoured one of the Goldolphin pair.
There is no reason why this horse can’t make his presence felt though with Damien Browne a very able replacement. This horse might at least have the edge on Excess Knowledge, whom he beat three starts back at 1500 metres conceding one kilogram. He has also drawn slightly better than that horse. At $13, it seems quite a generous price given he beat his stablemate home last start.
Strawberry Boy is yet to win beyond 1600 metres but he does have a third placing at 2000 and 2400 metres. His biggest asset here is his fitness levels, and he might get more peace up front in this race at a longer distance than at his past two starts. That is if he manages to negate his bad barrier early and beats Leebaz to the rails. He has some hope, but not having won for eight starts doesn’t exactly fill you with confidence at a distance that isn’t his best.
Sakhee’s Soldier from New Zealand is the top rater here, although I might have been a bit generous giving him two points for being a traveller from other parts. Having said that I gave him no points for field position, and he could race up the first half dozen early.
He should improve off a very good second-up performance (especially in this stable) in a Group 1 mile race in New Zealand, and he has a win over, and a placing behind top mare Rising Romance in his homeland at this distance. He is the only Group 1 winner in the race that comes into it with no more than a two-week break between runs. And he might prefer right-handed tracks (8/17) opposed to left-handed ones (0/4).
Another ideally drawn to get a nice run in the race, and he wouldn’t mind a bit of cut in the ground (5/10 dead tracks). Unlike the former New Zealand winning mare of this race (Shez Sinsational), he doesn’t appreciate the wetter tracks back home. He too is at a nice double-figure quote, and probably shouldn’t be given his score above.
Old North is the youngest horse in the race, and the third of the Godolphin runners, with almost certainly the most upside of any horse in the race. It’s hard to get a line on him against his older rivals here but it’s not that common for three-year-olds to upstage their older rivals in weight-for-age company during the Queensland winter.
He did run faster than It’s Somewhat did for the same distance at Rosehill (Tulloch Stakes 2000m) on March 26, and his time last start at Randwick when runner-up was roughly a second slower than Guardini who won a Group 3 race, at the same distance, on the same day. He is a definite chance in the race but I’d want close to a double-figure price to invest. Again James Macdonald could have elected to ride him but has ended up on Hauraki.
The chances don’t end there, and it will be interesting to see how Spiritjim goes at his first start in Australia. Reports from the stable seem positive in regards to him acclimatising ,and given he ran in the L’arc De Triomphe in France this year, he probably has a class edge on nearly all of these horses.
He also ran a close second to Postponed at 2000 metres, and that horse would make a mess of this field. He might have been more advantaged on a wetter track, and at possibly more distance, but ignore him at your peril. Imported stablemate Kool Kompany sports blinkers for the first time but is yet to win beyond 1600 metres.
Volkstok’n’barrell is definitely capable enough but hasn’t run since the Doncaster Mile six weeks ago where his run is best forgiven. The post mortem from that race was he didn’t handle the going but expect a better run from him in this.
Conclusion and bet advice
At the value I’m inclined to go with two of the higher scoring runners who have fitness on their side here – Sir Moments and Sakhee’s Soldier, with the local horse slightly on top with his affinity for the track. I’m prepared to back both at healthy each way prices and maybe place a small saver bet on Leebaz at ridiculous odds.
Top four
1. Sir Moments
2. Sakhee’s Soldier
3. Hauraki
4. Leebaz
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