Quick quiz: what is the fastest thing in the sporting world?
It’s faster than an Indycar, faster than an LMP1 machine, and faster than a Formula One car.
It’s even faster than 1000 milligrams of taurine being absorbed into the bloodstream.
The answer: the average speed of Red Bull management’s knee jerk.
News broke overnight that Daniil Kvyat, two-time Formula One podium-getter and Red Bull Racing’s 2015 points leader, has been dumped from the aforementioned Red Bull senior team to resume his place at Toro Rosso, effective from the Spanish Grand Prix.
The Faenza-based squad will relinquish its claim to 18-year-old Max Verstappen, who will duly fill the Russian’s shoes in Milton Keynes.
That’s bad news for all those Russian Formula One fans who were decked in newly bought Red Bull Racing gear last weekend; bad news for the official Spanish Grand Prix, which will already have gone to print; and especially bad news for my humble Box of Neutrals podcast, which was pre-recorded on Wednesday for play out today (but which is still well worth a listen).
The precise details of how Red Bull ended up in this unusual situation in which a driver with more than two years of experience ended up at a self-defined junior team will undoubtedly become clearer with time, but today the straight swap leaves us with many pointed questions.
The first question is the most obvious: how is it that Red Bull management concluded that the driver who scored their only podium so far this year deserved the boot?
Certainly Kvyat had an average start to the season, but it was far from unrecoverable.
In Australia and Bahrain, he was caught out early in the controversial elimination qualifying format. In Australia, his car failed on the formation lap and in Bahrain Kvyat pulled himself out of a lacklustre opening half of the race to finish a solid seventh, albeit overshadowed by Daniel Ricciardo’s fourth-place classification.
But in China he came alive. Though he was blown away by Ricciardo in qualifying, he made the race-defining move on Sebastian Vettel at turn one to finish third, earning Formula One’s fan-voted driver of the day award in the process.
His Russian Grand Prix performance was messy, to say the least, and two collisions with Vettel in a matter of metres – one resulting in collateral damage to Ricciardo’s car and the other putting Vettel out of the race – incensed the team, which scored no points for the weekend.
And that crash apparently outweighs the podium in the minds of Red Bull’s powers, so Kvyat has been punted back to Toro Rosso to, according to Christian Horner, “continue his development … giving him the chance to regain his form and show his potential”.
It’s no secret that Kvyat was promoted at least one year earlier than management expected after Vettel’s sudden departure for Ferrari at the end of 2014, which makes the wisdom of replacing the apparently undercooked Russian with a teenager with less than 18 months of experience under his belt unconventional at best, which is the second question.
There’s no doubt Verstappen is talented. He is surely a future champion, circumstances willing, and he’s already shown well against more experienced drivers on track. Most expect him to fare well against proven race winner and new teammate Ricciardo.
But if sending Kvyat back to Faenza is an admission from management that it promoted him too early, how does promoting Verstappen part of the way through a season correct that error?
In Australia – where Verstappen was already being rumoured to have inked a deal to replace Kvyat next season, which bizarrely turned out to be false – Max allowed himself to be overcome with emotions in a petulant race arguably more indictable than Kvyat’s Russian efforts.
Angry he wasn’t allowed to pit first, Verstappen pitted himself, catching his team completely unaware and ruining his own race. He later almost took teammate Carlos Sainz out of the grand prix in a botched attempt to pass.
Better or worse than essentially misjudging your braking zone? You decide.
But with logic so shaky, necessarily a third question must be asked: why send Kvyat back to Toro Rosso, and in doing so break with a tradition of (a) trialling only new drivers and (b) a willingness to sack established drivers midseason to promote new drivers?
Verstappen’s courting by F1’s big beasts is an open secret, and despite his contract running through to the end of 2017, the Verstappen camp is nothing if not ambitious.
So to answer that question with another question, was it easier for Red Bull to disrupt both its Formula One teams and undermine the career of a driver it invested heavily in just to avoid a protracted contract battle with, say, Ferrari?
And if one of its supposedly watertight contracts was breachable after all, what does it say about its contract with Formula One’s other hot property, Ricciardo?
It wouldn’t be the first time a Red Bull knee jerk had backfired.
Follow @MichaelLamonato on Twitter.
Irina
Guest
Hi Michael, In regards to the last paragraph of this comment, I just sent you an e-mail on our sponsorship intentions for Kvyat and Toro Rosso. Cheers, Irina
Windmill
Guest
Really? Surely a company as big as Red Bull and advisor Dr. Helmut Marko won't be pressed by the Verstappen camp into a deal they themselves don't want to sign. The truth is they think Verstappen really is that good. Poor Kvyat is just the wrong person at the wrong time.
Trent Price
Roar Guru
The Marko rhetorical defence will always be that Red Bull doesn't promote drivers who 'deserve to be in F1 'over potential world champions. Truth is, Jos Verstappen seems to be able to execute Damir Dokic-like pressure on Red Bull's management and get away with it. After all it was he who gave Red Bull the 'it's F1 or nothing' ultimatum' which allowed Max to jump straight from F3 into the big league.
Frankie Hughes
Guest
Nico Hulkenberg brings little to no sponsorship money, therefore he's always under pressure but fortunately he's on a multiple year contract at Force India. Perez is safe as he's bank rolled by Carlos Slim. I don't see Carlos Sainz Jr's long term future at Red Bull Racing. He's dubbed as the new Fernando Alonso and therefore should he not be promoted to the senior team I fully expect the factory Renault team to snap him up. Next year is likely to be a game changer in F1 with the regulations stating engine restrictions will be opened up with aero regulations also changing(Red Bull's trump card Adrian Newey) One thing is certain, a Red Bull seat in 2017 could well be where the champion is crowned.
Simoc
Guest
It was unfortunate but a racing incident that Kvyat locked up and ran into the back of Vettel and then for good measure rammed him a second time. Imagine if it was Hamilton he had done it to; even more entertaining! But without huge Red Bull improvement I see an Italian name like Ricciardo being a great fit next season at Ferrari for his skill and marketability. So Red Bull will maybe need a number one driver and it wasn't going to be Kvyat. Hence it makes sense to bring in a future world champion in Verstappen to prepare him and if the car is good enough, he will be the next Vettel.
Sasa
Guest
Thanks for the article. I enjoy reading your work and will look out for the podcast. I think this is ALL about Max and how good he is going to be. No doubt he is petulant at times but so was Senna. I think Kvyat was the wrong guy in the wrong place at the wrong time. Feel for him a bit but thank goodness there's something juicy to talk about. Nico winning all the time is about as much fun as a kick in the pills!
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I think kvyat deserves to be in F1, but where he fits in is the big question. He doesn't seem to have the cash to boot out any of the established midfielders (say, a Perez or Hulkenberg, though neither would be on the endangered list anyway), and the only situation I can see him at RBR again is if Ricciardo or Verstappen tank hard (unlikely) or one of them is snapped up by another team. That seems unlikely on Verstappen's part, but maybe there's a chance Ricciardo could leave. But then to promote Kvyat ahead of Sainz would be a big call that goes against the Red Bull strategy, unless he really shows up the Spaniard... It's definitely made the driver market that little bit more interesting!
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I reckon Verstappen will push Ricciardo, but the question is him settling into the team and him coping with a performance car that may yet have serious issues. I think Ricciardo definitely underperformed at the start of the year, and he admitted as much, but his second half was pretty good, and this year he's been properly on it. I think part of Kvyat's problem is that there isn't enough money behind him. Maybe it'll rock up now that he really needs it, but there were already rumours at the end of last year that he'd be dumped because he wasn't bringing any value to the Red Bull brand. Really makes you realise how blurred the boudnary is between marketing exercise and sport the Red Bull teams are (not that this is a surprise).
Frankie Hughes
Guest
The key problems Red Bull Racing have had in 2016 revolve around three key issues: 1. Securing the long term future of Max Verstappen. 2. The total break down of related between Verstappen and Sainz Jr at Toro Rosso. 3. Daniil Kvyat's wild race in Russia that ruined Red Bull Racing's protégé Sebastian Vettel's race. First and foremost Max Verstappen is a wonderful young prospect make no bones about it, and as such all the other factory teams are counting his services. Before joining the Red Bull young driver program, Verstappen was actually associated with Mercedes. But after Mercedes didn't help Verstappen secure a race seat the relationship broke down. It's no secret both Verstappen and Ferrari want each other's services, but in the short term the Scuderia seem likely to sign Romain Grosjean to replace veteran Kimi Raikonnen. As such an early promotion for Verstappen to the senior team increases Red Bull Racing's bargaining power and will most likely encourage the young Dutchman to sign an improved contract. Moving on to that second point Verstappen and Sainz Jr have to putting on the 'we are friends' bravado, but behind the scenes it's all kicking off at Toro Rosso. Naturally Sainz Jr's side of the garage aren't happy that he's been overlooked for the senior team. In Carlos Sainz Snr( double world rally champion in his own right) and Jos Verstappen you've got a couple of big egos. The returning of Danill Kvyat to Toro Rosso should ease these tensions somewhat, as despite Kvyat's meltdown in Russia, he's usually a more laid back character compared to Verstappen and Sainz Jr. Finally moving on to Daniil Kvyat. Firstly at the age of 22, he's still young enough to come again at Red Bull Racing. His talent is undeniable but he's still tough around the edges. He was promoted to quickly when Sebastian Vettel left for Ferrari, when in hindsight promoting Jean-Eric Vergne probably would've made more sense. Secondly despite Vettel leaving Red Bull, he left on good terms, which is what probably cost Kvyat his seat. Helmut Marko and Christian Horner are still very close to their greatest ever driver and it probably embarrassed them heavily what transpired in Russia. Kvyat will come again...he'll just be hoping it's at Red Bull.
anon1
Guest
If they have absolutely no intention of keeping Kvyat at RBR next season it makes sense. This gives them information about all 4 drivers. If Verstappen beats Ricciardo consistently it's the end of Ricciardo's career and they keep Max. Vice Versa, the Verstappen camp has become increasingly demanding so Red Bull have decided to feed him to the wolves. If Ricciardo can dispatch of him easily then Verstappen won't have any chance of a Ferrari or Mercedes drive. I guess Red Bull didn't like him playing hard ball with them. I can't see Verstappen beating Ricciardo. He beat Vettel after all. Kvyat can salvage something by blowing away Sainz and pointing to his 2015 performance where he beat Ricciardo 7-6 in races where they both finished. A Russian driver would bring in Russian money for a Williams. They probably wanted Kvyat gone at the end of last season but he beat Ricciardo lol. Ricciardo underperformed a little in 2015 so he's on notice too.