If Hawthorn’s home-and-away seasons were a Hollywood film, they would be Robert De Niro and Al Pacino’s Heat. And it’s not just because Ryan Schoenmakers wants Val Kilmer’s hair.
(If you haven’t seen Heat, be warned, spoilers are coming. Also, go see Heat, it came out 21 years ago.)
Heat and Hawthorn’s seasons are both long, perhaps excessively so, but there’s more than enough quality and regular moments of brilliance to ensure they’re never a grind to watch.
More importantly, the tantalising threat of greatness always lingers. Like all the great ones, you never want to lose too much focus, because you might miss a passage that you’ll remember for a long time.
You can be lulled into a false sense of security, that ‘maybe this isn’t that special’, and then Shaun Burgoyne is silking goals from 50 metres on the run, and De Niro and Pacino are sitting down in that restaurant.
Both films always end the same way. The protagonist (and really, Hawthorn have been the AFL’s protagonist for the past four years – they’re the team that matters, and then there’s everyone else) kills the antagonist, and then they hold your hand as you die. Or, if you’re the West Coast Eagles, you get your hand stomped on repeatedly.
The problem with Heat is also its greatest strength – it flicks the switch. Slow, prosaic backstory (Ashley Judd, anyone?) starts to overwhelm, and then bang (literally), there’s De Niro and Kilmer robbing a bank.
Flicking the switch in sport has never been as easy. Form is fickle, and momentum is the game’s lifeblood. Complacency can kill cohesion. There have been plenty of teams that looked the same on paper, and at times on the field, as the champions they once were, but couldn’t replicate their ultimate success.
The 2010 Cats, 2011 Saints, 2012 Pies, 2013 Swans and 2014 Dockers all largely resembled their iterations that made grand finals the year prior, but something always felt off. They could never quite flick the switch, and the gear that made them so special started to elude them.
The switch can be flicked though, within seasons and within games. The 2011 Magpies made a living out of flicking the switch, falling asleep and giving teams four or five-goal headstarts, then entering Destruction Mode and wasting teams by 60 points (if the opposition was lucky).
That team is also a cautionary tale for the dark side of the switch, though. After winning 13 of their first 18 games by over 40 points, Collingwood won just one of their last seven by such a margin, limping to the finish line with uninspiring wins and two heavy losses to Geelong – the latter, of course, in the grand final.
It’s fitting that the last time that Collingwood team flicked the switch successfully was against Hawthorn. After kicking five goals in three quarters and falling down 17 points in the 2011 preliminary final, the Pies finally found their gear, kicking five in the last term to run out three-point winners. That Friday night was the last time that Hawthorn’s year ended before the season’s final Saturday.
The 2016 Hawks are dealing with the same problem that afflicts all the great teams: boredom. When you’ve played in four grand finals in a row, winning three of them, the home-and-away season ceases to really matter. It’s a means to an end. Hawthorn’s season starts not just in September, but late in September. This club’s only metric of success is premiership cups.
They have nothing to prove, and they’re stuck in a 23-round environment where everyone else has everything to prove. In August last year, it was written in this space that the Eagles should heed the words of The Wire‘s Omar Little before their blockbuster Round 19 clash with the Hawks: “Come at the king, you best not miss.”
Those words have echoed in the ears of every team the Hawks have faced over the past four years. They’re the kings, and they get everyone’s best shot. For the other 17 teams, their seasons are defined by how they play against Hawthorn. The Bulldogs and Crows play the Hawks tight, and the Cats and Giants wallop them – now all four of those teams are premiership contenders.
If you’re the Hawks, how do you get up for a Saturday afternoon Round 4 game in Launceston against the Saints, when your only measure is historic greatness? And on the other hand, how do you not get up for that game if you’re the Saints?
Hawthorn’s reality is that if they finish the home-and-away season in eighth spot and their list is healthy, they will deserve to be premiership favourites. They’ve built up that championship equity. In a way, that’s liberating, but for the 22 matches leading up to that point, it can be almost suffocating.
With or without their injuries, the Hawks have been disjointed this year. The cadences of their usually pristine ball movement have been off, with kicks and handballs in the chain just slightly askew, a little wide of the mark, or weighted a little incorrectly. Their contested ball and clearance numbers have been deplorable.
But there’s not much to take from this. The Hawks have never been a truly elite contested ball team – they’ve ranked eighth, fifth and ninth in contested possession differential in their premiership seasons. The clearance stats are more peculiar, but given that the personnel is largely the same as the team that was second in clearance differential last season, and the fact that Sam Mitchell doesn’t age, they seem like an aberration at this stage.
The Hawks have little to be concerned about. They’re not playing well, but they’re hurt, and they showed in the West Coast game that their best is still dominant. A juggernaut hasn’t emerged to stop them either. This isn’t 2001 or 2010, when the premiership Bombers and Cats take their foot off the gas and get overrun by a rampaging Brisbane and Collingwood. The Swans, Eagles, Cats, Dogs, Crows, Kangaroos and Giants all pose interesting questions, but still none of them emphatically suggest that the answer is going to be anything other than ‘Hawthorn’.
The Hawks started last year 4-4 with three losses against teams that didn’t make the eight. The 2008 Cats lost one game before the grand final and it was by 86 points. The 2001-04 Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn’s biggest rival in the argument for ‘greatest team of the modern era’, never finished top of the ladder.
Great teams have days off, and even seasons off. Flicking the switch is dangerous, but it can be done. When the Hawks flick the switch and remain in darkness, we’ll know about it. But for now, the reliability of their wiring is still football’s best bet.
Dad of footy-playing kids
Guest
Yeah a great Finals record for Swans. However the count re-sets when a Finals Series is missed (it's my count, so my rules lol). Strangely - both Hawks and Sydney missed finals in 2009.
andyl12
Guest
And you say that without giving us a single reason why.
mattyb
Guest
I think any talk of COLA,academies or any concessions given to sides North of the Victorian border by supporters of Victorian clubs is extremely poor.
Stewie
Guest
"Stewie- let’s at least agree on one thing- that if there is a Hawthorn-Sydney GF this year, we shouldn’t pay attention to who’s favourite and who’s underdog." Definitely agree there. Anything can happen on GF day! "I never believed the cr@p about how each player had to be paid an extra 9.8% above their salary and that was somehow proof that COLA wasn’t being used for poaching." Well that's what actually happened. If you don't believe it now, preferring to continue the Hawks vs Swans narrative rather than look at facts, I don't think I'll be able to convince you. See you next week, may the best team win!
andyl12
Guest
"And one last thing, check how many of the 2005 premiership team actually came from NSW." How many? And what's your point? I have in-laws who moved to Bondi n 2014. They live off a pittance. And they say they never want to go home.
andyl12
Guest
Stewie- let's at least agree on one thing- that if there is a Hawthorn-Sydney GF this year, we shouldn't pay attention to who's favourite and who's underdog. I've already heard that stuff about how the retiree list allowed the club to afford Buddy and Tippett. I don't see how it's relevant that retirements occurred because regardless, the cap would've been lower were it not for COLA and this would've left the club with less money to woo Buddy and Tippett, other clubs might've found it easier to match your offers. I never believed the cr@p about how each player had to be paid an extra 9.8% above their salary and that was somehow proof that COLA wasn't being used for poaching. And I still think none of your players deserve rent assistance given how much they're earning- if a bloke on $300K can't afford his rent there's something seriously wrong with him.
Stewie
Guest
And one last thing, check how many of the 2005 premiership team actually came from NSW. Go home is definitely a factor
Stewie
Guest
Oh, and if you're looking for a source for those figures (which aren't too unrealistic at all), look up on youtube "On the Couch Round 11 2014 - Swans talk". Relevant table is there at 3.20 in.
Stewie
Guest
But you can only compare Swans wages to other AFL clubs; that's the market they're in. You can't compare to a checkout chick, a stockbroker, or any other job. $400k, or whatever the wage is, is worth more if you live in Melbourne than in Sydney. I agree that the gap between the two (and other) cities has closed in recent years, so it's right that it changes. Re. 2014 and what "my point" is. My point was actually that it happened on both sides of the coin. You were favourites in 2012 and lost, we were favourites in 2014 and lost. That's all! Re. Tippett and Franklin, here are some stats for you 2012 outs: Seaby 300k Spangher 120k Dennis-Lane 150k Moore 220k Meredith 120k Gordon 90k = 1mill 2012 ins Tippett Cunningham elevation 4 draftees 2013 outs: Armstrong 140k Everitt 280k Lamb 150k Mattner 350k Morton 160k Mumford 500k White 250k Bolton 360k Total 2.19 million 2013 ins: Franklin Derickx Brandon Jack elevation 4 draftees Does that change your mind at all?
andyl12
Guest
Last time I checked, the average Sydneysider earns far less than the average footballer and has no desire to leave town. Last time I checked, NRL players earn far less than AFL players yet are happy to live in expensive Sydney suburbs and show no desire to leave town. Last time I checked, there were people living in Bondi on the minimum wage even though they weren't from there and might've thought about 'going home' at some point. So stop telling me that Sydney's cost of living was driving players away, there is simply no evidence of that and in fact there is more evidence that the Bondi lifestyle was a natural lure for AFL players. Oh yeah and typical Swans fan to think poaching Buddy and Tippett would've been possible without COLA. Your post at 1.25AM seemed to imply that we were favourites in 2014.
Stewie
Guest
Really? Thought I made a fairly passive response, making no claims at all, let alone admissions. The stats are there that shows that we didn't use COLA as a lump sum to get Buddy or Tippett. And if we didn't have COLA, some of our players would've left, on the simple principle that $400k per year is worth less in Sydney than it is in Melbourne, especially when you add in the "go home" factor (before we had the academy). So no, you're not "the only one talking factually". And of course we didn't show up in 2014, I don't think you'd find any Swans fan who'd say otherwise. But that wasn't my point either. Typical Hawks supporter right here, ladies and gents.
andyl12
Guest
Haha, I clearly touched a nerve there. Your admission that you blew 2014 as favourites, your admissions about COLA and your admission that I'm the one talking factually are all I need. Go Hawks!
Stewie
Guest
Yawn, can't come up with anything better, can we? Besides, most important word of that sentence: "Yes".
andyl12
Guest
Yes, but 2012 was before you started using COLA to destroy your much-vaunted team ethic (although COLA still gave you a major advantage that year).
Dan
Guest
Ridiculous comment. I really think you need to read the article before spouting off half baked comments. First off the Hawks are notoriously slow starters. 2nd they have multiple injuries to players and key ones at that. 3rd against GWS they were just off. And boy was GWS on. They haven't been able to play at that standard since. Also 2 key Hawks played that game whilst being injured. 4th the Hawks are still playing catch up in terms of overall fitness. You saw it last year they didn't really get going till about round 10. If i were the rest of the comp I'd be dead set worried as the Hawks have continued to get wins when perhaps they shouldn't have. When Roughy gets back and a number of our players are starting to click watch out!
Stewie
Guest
Sure did in 2012 though :P
Stewie
Guest
Go from 2001 and Swans would destroy :P
While we're at it
Guest
I would have anyone ahead of Cheney
New York Hawk
Guest
Sicily has been sensational. For a kid who has played less than 10 games he is showing remarkable strength, vision and composure. And how about those hands? Have you seen him play, Dean? Did you see him calmly kick the winning goal against the Doggies? I can only assume not.
New York Hawk
Guest
Dean doesn't appear to be aware of the facts, or the context of the author's point of view. I was starting to subscribe to the "The Hawks are gone" camp, but I had to remind myself it was only May! A lot can happen between now and September, including Hawthorn dropping off significantly. But that assumes that Clarko doesn't have an adequate plan. And I don't know who would be silly enough to assume that. Then again, that is basically what everyone who says our list is past it is saying...