Scone is often described as the horse racing capital of Australia; horse breeding haven where many of Australia’s best studs are located.
It conducts 16 meetings a year, and this weekend it takes centre stage with two high-quality race cards on Friday and Saturday. And deservedly so, too, because the track itself would have to be one of the finest in the country, with its wide-open stretches and long home straight.
Rarely does a horse suffer interference of any magnitude, and any horse that can lead all the way certainly earns victory after piloting the rest of the field around long sweeping turns.
My focus is on the Scone Cup on Friday (Race 7 at 4.05pm AEST), a listed handicap race over 1600 metres, which attained that status in 2006. It is more often than not won by a horse at double-figure odds that gets under the guard of most punters.
Given that, my aim is to try and pinpoint those historical factors that could find us the winner this time around. Below are the last 13 winners with age, gender, barrier draw and weight carried to win.
• 2015: Tales of Grimm – 6g (3) $8
• 2014: Cameo – 4m (1) 54kg $21
• 2013: Speediness – 5g (9) 57.5kg $13
• 2012: Rasberries – 4m (2) 56kg $9
• 2011: Dysphonia – 4m (10) 53kg $11
• 2010: Keeping’ the Dream – 5g (15) 53kg $10
• 2009: Obvious Choice – 4g (11) 53kg $21
• 2008: Newton’s Rings – 7g (8) 57.5kg $8.50
• 2007: Spy Zaim – 4g (12) 53kg $6
• 2006: Fighting Fund – 4g (6) 51.5kg $8
• 2005: Impaler – 4g (11) 57kg $9
• 2004: Jeremiad – 4g (11) 58.5kg $3.50
• 2003: Full on Magic – 4g (13) 53kg $13
Relevant stats (weighted, collated, and totalled in table below)
A. Nine of 13 were four years of age – three points
B. Thirteen raced at 1300-1600 metres last start – three points
C. Ten have had thirteen days between runs – three points
D. Eleven started $8 or better – two points
E. Eleven stayed at same weight or dropped weight from last start – two points
F. Nine drew barrier eight or wider – two points
G. Nine placed fifth to ninth in early to middle stages of race (behind leading bunch. (Midfield types but not backmarkers) – two points
H. Six ran at Hawkesbury last start (five of last six) – one point
I. Six trained at Warwick Farm – one point
The average winning price of $10.92 in this period is very consistent with handicap races in Australia.
| HORSE | A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | TOTAL |
| 1. Mighty Lucky | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | ||||
| 2. Amovatio | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | ||||||
| 3. Sons of John | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | |||
| 4. Casino Dancer | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | ||||
| 5. Aomen | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | |||||
| 6. Malice | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | |||
| 7. Tales of Grimm | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | ||||
| 8. Dances on Stars | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |||||
| 9. Goldstream | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |||||
| 10. Less is More | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | ||
| 11. Bewhatyouwannabe | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |||||
| 12. Pajaro | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |||||
| 13. Great Esteem | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | |||
| 14. High Midnight | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |||||
| 15. Candelara | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | ||||
| 16. Darci Magic | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
Track condition
At the time of writing the track was rated a Soft 5 but good weather is forecast so we should get a Good 4 on the day, which should suit the vast majority of runners.
Race tempo
It’s hard to say what might be the leader in this race but Goldstream, High Midnight and Candelara are all drawn well and likely to race somewhere near the pace going on recent runs.
Aomen has the blinkers back on and actually led the field to the turn in the Doncaster Mile so perhaps he will take up the running here. Both Casino Dancer and Bewhatyouwannabe should be handy just behind the speed from their good barriers, and are likely to get the perfect run in the race.
If Himalaya Dream gets a run (first emergency) it would definitely add a lot more speed to the race. Even without his presence, it’s a big field, with a few on-pace runners drawn wide, so I’m guessing this will be a truly run race, and no horse is going to be too disadvantaged by the tempo.
Analysis
Top rated Less Is More is going to start massive odds (already $41), and it’s justified on his recent form. The now eight-year-old was ridden upside down last start, though, when he led second-up off a reasonable first-up performance. He also has a Nasal Strip gear change for this race so he must have been experiencing respiratory problems in that last race and/or in trackwork.
Less is More has a good third-up record and a respectable one at the distance, so if he is going to win another race it might be this one. Any give in the track is going to be of benefit, and it’s a bonus that all of his career wins have been in autumn and winter.
Similarly to last year, Great Esteem has scored highly in the historical data (equal top last year), but he wasn’t good enough then and might not be this time. I would prefer him coming into a race with a longer break, given all his wins, bar one, have been with more than two weeks between runs.
Sons Of John also scores well and was set a big task to win at 1600 metres first-up at Hawkesbury in the Cup. He never really got into the race but could improve with that run under his belt. Rising in weight off an ordinary run is hardly encouraging, but he does have two placings behind Winx on his resume.
Candelara is a four-year-old mare having only her third run in the stable of Tim Martin. She could be a big improver with blinkers back on, but she might need a wetter track to produce her best form. If she gets one and happened to win she would become the fourth four-year-old mare to win this race in the past six years.
The best of the four-year-olds this year appears to be the High Chaparral gelding High Midnight from the Anthony Cummings stable, who comes off two consecutive wins. The suggestion is that travel to Brisbane and Melbourne in the past 12 months has fully matured the horse, and he is now more focused.
It’s very hard to line him up against some of the top weighted horses here, but he does have a nice formline from his final in Melbourne during the spring when he wasn’t far behind Berisha and beat home Scherzoso. Berisha went on to win the Mornington Cup this autumn and Scherzoso resumed recently to win a BM90 restricted race at Flemington, albeit with only 51.5 kilograms after the claim.
Realistically you’d like to see High Midnight getting a little more weight off the top-weighted runners in this race, because he is still a restricted grade galloper. But it does appear he has the measure of most of the lower class runners in this race including the two he beat last start – Darci Magic and Himalaya Dream (if it gets a start).
The Italian import Goldstream is also a four-year-old (stallion), but he looks extremely well weighted in comparison to High Midnight coming out of three consecutive Group 1 races at weight for age and dropping five kilograms on his last start.
The problem is he hasn’t done anything of note in any of those races, and his Italian Derby win this time last year doesn’t seem to have held up form wise. His half-brother Bit Of Hell also came here in 2013 with excellent Italian form but failed to win in seven starts, albeit he did run a good second to Strawberry Boy in his debut run.
Hope springs eternal for Goldstream though off a recent trial win at Wyong where he beat home Group performer Excess Knowledge. It seemed to be quite a serious trial too, with the time for 1000 metres being a respectable 59.71. He can be forgiven his first-up run in a very strong All Aged Stakes at Randwick where he led but overraced badly to be beaten over 11 lengths.
Given the lack of depth in the race you have to respect the top weighted horses Mighty Lucky and Amovatio. The former has 60 kilograms but did win a race at Randwick two starts back with 61.5 kilograms. This doesn’t look a lot harder and he is a horse in career best form.
The latter is a genuine dry track horse (8/19) and he did win fourth- and fifth-up last winter in Melbourne. This is his fifth run this preparation and he has won twice with more weight than he carries here. He also appeals as a big track horse having won three of nine races at Flemington and Randwick combined.
Five-year-old mare Casino Dancer has drawn well and should be competitive with the aforementioned pairing she met last start.
Tales Of Grimm rises only 0.5 kilograms off his win last year when the topweight only had 59 kilograms (Mighty Lucky has 60 kilograms this year), so he should be competitive if he can find a few lengths on his two runs this campaign.
He may well have been in inferior ground last start at Hawkesbury on the rails, and his first-up run was not as bad as it looked from a wide barrier. Drawing a weights formline through Frespanol and Mighty Lucky last year he would beat the latter horse home easily here with 5.5 kilograms less weight.
Conclusion and bet advice
As is the case with most handicap races I’m most inclined to look down in the weights for my top four selections below. And finding value is the name of the game.
1. Less is More: Different tactics and the Gear Change might prompt a form reversal.
2. Tales of Grimm: Lightning could strike twice, with only 0.5 kilograms more than last year.
3. High Midnight: Is showing his true ability and needs to go close in this to suggest he has a future.
4. Goldstream: Very well weighted and the recent trial win might give him the confidence to produce the same on race day. If he can’t do something significant here then you have to wonder what the future holds for him in this part of the world.
I’d suggest an each way investment on Less Is More at the $41 or more on offer, and a win bet on Tales Of Grimm at $10 or so which is around the average winning price in this race.
Amovatio and Mighty Lucky should be considered in multis, but that pairing, and the two four-year-olds mentioned above, are probably about their right prices in early betting.
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