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It’s been a cracking clay court season in the build-up to this year’s French Open. Rafael Nadal found his forehand and belief in Monte Carlo, while Novak Djokovic was sensationally upset in the second round by young Czech Jiri Vesely.
It’s all escalated from there, with Andy Murray finding his feet on the clay late in his career, and Kei Nishikori proving himself a clay court threat once again. Roger Federer has been unusually absent with back problems and Stan Wawrinka’s gone sour, but Nick Kyrgios and Dominic Thiem have filled the void with exuberant and fearless tennis.
With the dust settled from the lead-up events, it’s time to find out who are the contenders and pretenders to lift the Coupe des Mousquetaires on June 5.
Novak Djokovic
To call Djokovic a contender is unfair. He’s the clear favourite once again to win his maiden French Open and it will take a titanic performance of similar ilk to Stan Wawrinka’s heroics last year to stop him.
Coming in off the back of a title in Madrid, Djokovic has shown that the upset in Monte Carlo was a speed bump in his quest for clay glory and he will be hard to stop in a best-of-five format. An easy path to the quarter-finals should eventuate.
Andy Murray
Last year, Murray surprised many with his victory in Madrid and ensuing run to the French Open semi-finals before succumbing to Djokovic in five sets. He’s been even more impressive this season with a final in Madrid and recently lifting the trophy in Rome for the first time, with a win over Djokovic in the final no less.
Improved movement on clay and years of experience have given the Scotsman plenty of confidence heading into this year’s tournament and he’ll be a hard man to stop given his form and desire for more grand slam silverware after a runner-up showing in Australia.
Murray will need a clean path to the second week to give himself fresh legs and a chance of toppling Nadal or Djokovic.
Kei Nishikori
Japan’s great hope has been looking ominous once again this year with narrow losses to Nadal and Djokovic his only blemishes this clay season.
Incredible movement coupled with stinging groundstrokes off both wings will be having many hope he can emulate the feats of his coach, Michael Chang, who won the French Open as a 17-year-old in one of tennis’s most famous slam victories.
A lack of genuine firepower means he needs to stay mentally focused through the early rounds and produce his best tennis at the business end if he’s to have a shot.
Stan Wawrinka
Last year’s hero has had a rocky clay season leading up to his title defence, yet it will mean little to the man dubbed ‘Stanimal.’ Wawrinka is the sleeping giant of the draw, a man frail enough to lose in the first round, yet with matches under his belt and confidence in his mind he is a menace to anyone.
A lack of matches could undo him so he’ll need a kind draw through to the second week if he’s to deal with the pressure of carrying the defending champion tag. His recent clay woes may be a blessing in disguise, as he has skipped the limelight and will prefer sneaking under the radar to play himself into form. If he gets through to the quarters relatively unscathed he will be a hard man to stop.
Rafael Nadal
The King of Clay is nearly back to his vintage best this season, and a recent classic match with Djokovic in Rome will have him confident enough to like his chances of lifting, and I can’t believe I’m writing this, a tenth French Open title.
Nadal had been battling to find form for over a year until Monte Carlo last month, but his game has suddenly ignited from the dust. Losses to Murray and Djokovic have been less than ideal but you’d be a brave man to write off a confident Nadal.
He will need some luck from the draw as fifth seed and may well run into Djokovic as early as the quarter-finals.
Dominic Thiem
The Austrian has proven his clay court credentials with a win over Nadal earlier in the year on his way to a title in Argentina.
Losses to Nadal, Nishikori and Philip Kohlschreiber this past month will do little to dent the confidence of a nothing-to-lose young gun with a heavy game suited to clay. A second-week showing would not surprise anyone.
Nick Kyrgios
Australia’s only hope and one of the most talented players on earth, Kyrgios can be a nightmare opponent for anyone, including himself.
The mercurial youngster has the firepower and belief to beat anyone on his day and grand slam glory looks likely in the future, but hopes of a title this year may be premature given the fitness and mental fortitude required to be the last man standing.
Roger Federer
The great man is finally showing signs of ageing with back problems thwarting his 2016 campaign since March.
If he’s fit and healthy he’s a chance, and a run to the semis would not be surprising, but Federer’s powers are more easily tamed on the slow clay of Paris and the best movers will beat him on a good day.
Gael Monfils
France’s best hope, ahead of Jo-Wilfred Tsonga and Richard Gasquet, Monfils has had an unusually consistent start to the year, but that won’t stop him providing plenty of flamboyant play once again as he vies to be the first Frenchman to win the title since Yannick Noah’s 1983 title.
It’s been less than ideal preparation for the Serb, but Djokovic should breeze through the early rounds and have plenty left in the tank to give his all in the second week. He’s come agonisingly close several times and all the missed opportunities will just be fuel for the fire this year as he looks to complete his career grand slam and cement his status as one of the greatest players we’ve ever seen.
Rafael Nadal is paying $5 and will be hard to stop especially if he finds himself on the other side of the draw to Djokovic. Stan Wawrinka is paying $15 for those feeling luckier, as his game is the only one in tennis capable of hitting through anyone on clay.
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