The NRL Thursday Night Forecast is back again and this week we return to Stadium Australia for a match-up of two teams trying to elevate themselves out of the mid-table cluster.

Recent form
Unlike last week, where both teams entered the Thursday night game as last start losers, this week both teams will enter the game coming off a win. Though neither team will be entirely comfortable with their form.

While the Rabbitohs enjoyed a heart-warming, and without getting overly dramatic, potentially season-saving come-from-behind win at an emotional Parramatta Stadium, it was a largely scratchy performance. The team is to be commended for fighting back but they were playing an Eels team in turmoil, missing half of their regular spine.

Meanwhile, the Dragons prevailed against an awful Raiders team who managed to complete only 27 of 40 sets and made 19 errors in total, including the Jack Wighton blooper reel special at the end of the first period of extra-time.

The two points will be appreciated and the team is to be commended for their attitude throughout, but the concern is that the attack did not seem any better. Future opponents will presumably play better than the Under-9s standard the Raiders offered up.

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Team sheet

For the Rabbitohs, there is only one listed change to the team that defeated the Eels with Cody Walker brought in to replace Michael Oldfield on the wing. This is an interesting move from Michael Maguire given that Walker is not known for playing on the flank and one wonders whether there may be a bait and switch afoot.

One possibility is Walker moving to the halves and Greg Inglis – who we will look at in more depth below – moving directly to the centres with Bryson Goodwin shifting to wing. Or it could be that Alex Johnston and Walker will swap positions as was reported late on Wednesday.

The Dragons meanwhile have reshuffled their forward pack with Russell Packer elevated from the bench to the starting front row slot and Mike Cooper moved back to lock. This places Cooper back in a role in which he has been very effective but seems a shame after the success of Tyson Frizell in the middle unit against the Dragons.

Although named in his usual position of edge back-rower, Frizell was actually stationed in the middle of the field with Will Matthews playing on the right edge. Frizell took full advantage of the opportunity to play on both sides of the ruck taking several big carries on the left flank early in the contest.

Frizell had 19 touches in total, of which he ran on 17 occasions for 150 metres, a substantial return for any forward. However, it was his metres after contact that was most impressive as he routinely dragged two or more defenders up the field with his tremendous leg drive. Indeed, his performance was reminiscent of the most potent power locks in the game such as Paul Gallen and Jason Taumalolo.

However with Joel Thompson ruled out through suspension one can only assume that coach Paul Macgregor is keen to keep one edge unit intact.

What to watch for
Regular readers of the Thursday Night Forecast will recall that ahead of last Thursday’s match between the Dragons and Raiders we looked in detail at the role and contribution of Josh Dugan after he was shifted to the centres for the previous game against the Warriors. We looked at some of the thinking that might have gone into that decision and explored some possible question marks about the Dragons’ overall strategy.

This week we will again be looking at an interesting positional shift for a regular fullback, but this time it is Greg Inglis we will be considering. Unsurprisingly there has been a lot of discussion about the performance of Inglis after he was moved out of fullback for the game against the Eels.

Inglis started the game against Parramatta as the five-eighth, stationed on the left edge with Adam Reynolds shifting across to the right side. However, when Luke Keary was brought into the game Inglis then shifted one position further out to left centre.

It was here that Inglis had a profound impact in the closing stages of the game, making one big break before then creating a something-out-of-nothing try for the Rabbitohs with a remarkable offload despite the attention of three Eels defenders.

Meanwhile, Inglis’s replacement at fullback Alex Johnston was instrumental in the Rabbitohs’ first try, folding into the line as an extra playmaker on the right edge and throwing a wonderful pass to Michael Oldfield.

So coaching masterstroke, right? Well, maybe. Before we get too carried away let’s take a closer look at Inglis’ overall contribution and try to form a judgment as to whether this shift, which looks set to continue this week, is the best use of the resources available to the Rabbitohs.

The first thing we need to do is to divide Inglis’ game into two parts. The part where he was the five-eighth/left half and the part where he went to left centre. Because the reality is that as a half Inglis did not achieve a great deal in this game.

Start with the fact that Inglis didn’t put in a single kick all game, leaving the vast majority of the kicking to Reynolds. Cameron McInnes placed one kick and Luke Keary also put boot to ball three times once he came on.

As we know most teams have a preferred kicker and we’ve looked before in the Thursday Forecast at the situation at the Broncos in 2015 where Ben Hunt took well over 80 per cent of the kicks in general play.

However, even then Anthony Milford did put in some kicks. Reynolds is an elite kicker, one of the best in the NRL, but no kicker can do it alone if only because once it becomes clear that one player is doing all the kicking it becomes easier to isolate and pressure that player. If Inglis is to continue in the halves he will need to take up some sort of kicking role.

Beyond the lack of kicking though there was a general sense that Inglis wasn’t entirely acclimatised to the halves with most of his involvement limited to trucking it up himself or simply handing the ball along to the next man.

Inglis may have been a good to very good five-eighth in his younger days. He even won a Dally M five-eighth of the year in 2008 (though that award should undoubtedly have gone to Terry Campese). However on the evidence we have seen both last year against the Raiders in Cairns and in the game against the Eels the role doesn’t suit him anymore.

But when he went to centre on Friday night he made a big difference, right? Well yes and no. Certainly the first big break Inglis had did involve the signature Inglis fend and if you want to argue that few other players would be able to get away the offload that Inglis managed later on, I won’t disagree.

Meanwhile, for his part Keary also acted every bit the supersub replacing Inglis in the halves and as noted Johnston contributed one try assist and generally played well if not exceptionally (which may explain the rumoured decision to shift Walker to fullback).

But we must ask whether Inglis needed to be playing centre (and consequently did those other players need to be out of their normal position as well) for him to get those opportunities? Obviously, it’s unlikely that he would have got those exact opportunities playing fullback but the beauty of playing fullback is that you can involve yourself anywhere on the field. You don’t need to wait for a half to create an opportunity to run on the edge, you can go and make yourself the extra man to create that space for yourself or a teammate.

But for whatever reason it seems clear that either Maguire or Inglis, or most likely both, have determined that Inglis should not continue at fullback for the time being. Perhaps they are trying to protect his injured knee from the heavy-duty kick return carries that playing fullback requires. Or perhaps they feel that putting him in the hustle bustle of the attacking and defensive line will help keep him engaged.

So if he’s not going to play fullback and he’s not really a natural playmaker anymore (if he ever was) then perhaps a full-time move back to the centres does make sense. The Rabbitohs have a surplus of competent halves but are thin on quality outside backs so why not put him in the position that best maximises his strength while also getting as many of the team’s best players on the field at the same time?

If all this feels a little circular, it’s because it is fairly clear that thinking on this is rapidly evolving for the Rabbitohs. Despite the win against the Eels the team has performed well below expectations and at this point the coaching team are no doubt casting about for any solution that will elevate them back into contention.

Greg Inglis is a wonderful player who is an asset in any position on the field but it will be fascinating to watch how he is utilised by the Rabbitohs both tonight and in the future.

Moving on to the Dragons and the key thing to look for is whether the team can maintain the extraordinary discipline and ball control that delivered the win for them in Round 10. In the second half against Canberra the Dragons completed 19 of 21 sets, gave away only a solitary penalty and had 60 per cent possession as the Raiders gave up the ball again and again.

It is this sort of discipline and respect for the ball that has been instrumental in the team’s success so far this season.

Unsurprisingly, error rate and winning are fairly highly correlated for all teams. Three of the top four teams on the ladder are among the top six teams for keeping errors down (the exception is the Sharks who make the third most errors of any team).

This is to be expected: errors are clearly to be avoided. However for the Dragons the link between cutting out the errors and winning is particularly clear. In five victories this season the team has averaged only seven errors per game with no game in double figures. Whereas in the team’s five losses they have made over 12 errors per game.

This discrepancy is particularly important for the Dragons as a team that is demonstrably low on playmaking. The Dragons have recorded the fewest try assists in the competition and also the second fewest line breaks and line break assists.

For a team that is also at the lower end of penalties received (fourth last with 6.7 per game) it is therefore absolutely critical that they hold onto the ball to build pressure on the opposition. The statistics suggest that they are unlikely to generate points from moments of creative brilliance, or from being helped down the field via a penalty, but rather must rely on sustained pressure.

Watch closely tonight and if the Dragons are avoiding errors and keeping the penalty count down they are a chance of building enough pressure to win. But if they’re into double figures for errors then it is likely the Rabbitohs will prevail.

First try-scorer: Sam Burgess
Early this year I predicted that the Rabbitohs would make the eight largely on the basis that the return of Sam Burgess would catapult the team, and particularly the forward pack, back into the top tier.

That clearly hasn’t happened with Burgess struggling to find consistent form in the NRL and in particular struggling to find his way over the try-line. After scoring ten tries in 2014 and eight in 2013 for a total of 18 in his previous 50 games, Burgess has so far in his return season scored only one try in nine appearances. A significantly slower pace.

Which as any one will tell you simply means he’s due to get over tonight and he’ll probably go over first.

Prediction: Rabbitohs
Another challenging game to predict after both teams had such up and down performances in Round 10. However while the Dragons won through grit, good fortune and the horrible error count of their opposition, the Rabbitohs can be genuinely considered to have finished the better side against the Eels.

The previous game between these two teams was an utter slugfest in appalling conditions at the SCG. The Dragons prevailed in that game 8-6 after limiting themselves to only seven errors and receiving an extraordinary 14 penalties as the Rabbitohs’ discipline let them down.

It’s also worth noting that the Rabbitohs were without Reynolds in that game and his elite kicking game was sorely missed.

Even with Burgess below his best and Inglis searching for the best way to help the team, the Rabbitohs seem to have just a little too much creativity. If the Dragons can hold the ball then they are certainly a chance but all signs suggest that the Rabbitohs will be fractionally too strong.

Shoe-in of the week
After the apparent success of the decision to move Inglis out of fullback and into the halves and then centres, we’re going to hear a lot of folks claiming ‘well I’ve always thought he was better in the halves/centres’.

You can read the Thursday Night Forecast here every week or check it out along with more great rugby league analysis on Lachlan’s website Back the Ten. You can also follow Lachlan on Titter @backtheten.