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Can Esteban Chavez hold onto pink and deliver Orica GreenEdge their first ever Grand Tour on the penultimate stage of the Giro d’Italia? Find out as The Roar brings you live coverage of the 134 kilometre journey from Guillestre to Sant’anna di Vinadio from 8:45pm (AEST).
Steven Kruijswijk (Lotto NL-Jumbo) held pink by three minutes heading into yesterday, but crashed and now has slipped back to third.
But Kruijswijk’s loss was to the gain of Chavez as he took over the pink jersey. It was a team attack up the Colle dell’Angelo, headed up by Damien Howson that cracked the peloton and ensure a small group would go over the top.
It wasn’t all smooth sailing for Chavez though after he and Nibali went clear on the final climb. He would lose the wheel of a fired up Nibali, and lose 50 seconds on the line, with even Mikel Nieve (Sky) sweeping past him for second spot on the stage.
It leaves Nibali just 44 seconds behind on the General Classification, and with reports coming out of Italy that Kruijswijk has broken a rib after the crash it is doubtful he will be able to do much on the penultimate day.
Over a distance of just 134 kilometres – that in itself is not normal for the Giro who generally prefer stages in excess of 200 kilometres, there are four categorised climbs, which include three Category 1 and a Category 3 summit finish.
They climb almost instantly up the Col de Vars which is summited 19 kilometres into the stage, before they go up the Col de la Bonette which goes uphill for about 18 kilometres. At the top they descend for almost 40 kilometres before beginning the final climbs of the Giro.
The Colle Della Lombarde will climb for 20 kilometres, up to 2350 metres above sea level at an average gradient of 7.8 per cent. There is only a short descent before lining up for the Category 3 climb to the finish – which is two kilometres at nearly 10 per cent.
After a day of climbing, an explosive effort like that could open up huge time gaps if anyone has the legs, so don’t write off Alejandro Valverde who is almost two minutes behind.
Chavez has looked strong on the defensive throughout the Giro, but was put into some serious discomfort on the final climb tomorrow. Still, he won’t have to make the attack tonight and has time to play with.
Nibali on the other hand has looked ordinary for the last week but came into this own yesterday. Was it a one off burst? The way he rode you have to think not, but he is going to suffer for going into the red zone trying to hang on at 2700 metres.
With a chance of rain, this stage could absolutely have it all.
Prediction
How do you predict something with so many variables? Has Nibali emptied the tank a little too far? That’s the question – if Chavez can hold the back wheel he wins the Giro.
Chavez to hold onto pink by the skin of his teeth, a strong breakaway to go clear and win the stage.
Be sure to join The Roar for what should be an epic day of racing from 8:45pm (AEST) and don’t forget to add your own comments in the section below.
Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde