Guys, I don’t mean to alarm you, but Esteban Chaves is leading the Giro d’Italia with just two stages left. If the Orica-GreenEDGE rider marks his challengers – and he certainly looks strong enough to – he will ride into Torino on Sunday wearing the Maglia Rosa, as the Australian team’s first ever Grand Tour winner.
Chaves began Stage 19 three minutes behind race leader Steven Kruijswijk, who was the unbackable favourite to take overall honours, having been by far the strongest man in the race.
But a lapse in concentration while descending the Coll dell’Agnello – the race’s Cima Coppi, or highest mountain, peaking at a mammoth 2744 metres – saw the Dutchman plow into a snowbank, flipping over his handlebars in dramatic fashion.
Kruijswijk picked himself up, dusted himself off and continued, but was clearly wounded, with grazes visible through his shreadded pink jersey and a post-race x-ray revealing a fractured rib. Furthermore, his machine was also damaged in the crash, and he needed a bike change a short way down the road.
In the end he finished a huge 4 minutes and 54 seconds behind stage winner Vincenzo Nibali.
It was a devastating end to Kruijswijk’s ambition to become the first Dutchman to win the Giro. But the simple fact is if you want to win a Grand Tour, you’ve got to stay on your bike, and being the best at climbing mountains doesn’t count for anything if you can’t descend in one piece.
With the injuries he has sustained, you have to wonder if Kruijswijk will continue the race, suffering through two more stages, struggling to breathe with his busted rib, all to surely only fall further down the standings and not even stand on the podium in Torino on Sunday.
Regardless, he’s announced himself on the world stage. Fingers crossed we see him lining for the Vuelta a Espane later this year.
But back in Italy… Esteban Chaves is leading the Giro!
At the start of this race, I said it was “the most important Grand Tour for Australia since Cadel Evans’ 2011 Tour de France victory”. I thought perhaps, if luck was on his side and he rode to the best of his abilities, ‘our’ Esteban could finish on the podium, in what would be a huge shot in the arm for the first and only Australian team on the World Tour.
My exact prediction for the diminuitive Colombian was:
Can Chaves win it?
Honestly, if all the main contenders ride to their potential, stay healthy and keep out of trouble, no.
But the podium is absolutely on the cards.
And with unexpected illnesses, mechanical issues, crashes and bad days all guaranteed in three-week races, if a podium finish is on the cards, then a win is possible.
That’s a very well-hedged prediction, but bugger if it isn’t bloody close to coming true.
Kruijswijk has all but crashed out. Illness forced pre-race favourite Mikel Landa to abandon. Alejandro Valverde is riding with his usual panache, but has been found out on the highest peaks.
Nibali has had more than a few bad days, although he was back to his blistering best last night, soloing to victory and taking 53 seconds from Chaves.
Sitting in second place at 44 seconds down – a buffer that’s overturned in a few kilometres on a high mountain – the Italian is the biggest threat to Chaves’ pink jersey. But the onus is on Nibali. Chaves merely sits on the Italian’s wheel and marks his moves.
Furthermore, while Nibali may be riding himself into form, he might also have played his grand final last night. Bursting into tears after taking the stage win showed just how emotionally draining this race has been for the local hero – does he have the energy to back up again?
We’ll find out tonight, on what could be Aussie cycling’s best night since Cadel overcame Andy Schleck in that time trial almost five years ago.
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