Let’s talk about the f-word. Gold Coast coach Rodney Eade went close to dropping it yesterday. Actually, I’m certain he dropped it a few times throughout the afternoon.
But the particular f-word we’re talking about here is, of course, that other one.
“I think we can certainly help shape the eight and that might mean that we might be able to push for it,” Eade said.
That would be finals he’s referring to.
After a 77-point loss. After a five-game run where his side haven’t lost by fewer than 73. Hmmm. You can call me sceptical.
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But Eade wasn’t alone in the footy world at the weekend. Elsewhere, Carlton were being referred to as finals possibilities.
This argument has a little bit more recent evidence behind it.
The Blues are absolutely flying. No one would have predicted they’d be 5-5 at this point of the season and Brendon Bolton is rightly drawing praise left, right and centre.
There was plenty to like in the win over Geelong yesterday, particularly after injuries cut the bench to two.
That said, as far as the f-word goes – for both clubs – some cold water should probably be applied at this point.
Eade was referring to the players he would be getting back in coming weeks and yes, it will be interesting to see how that transforms his side. Still, they are long, long way off right now.
With the Blues, well, prepare for more excitement. Brisbane and St Kilda in the next fortnight could bring two more wins.
But after the bye, it gets tough.
They face a run of Greater Western Sydney, Collingwood, Adelaide, West Coast, Sydney and Hawthorn – that is, mostly teams that will be in the build-up to a finals campaign.
I’ll hold off on this particular bandwagon.
No change // Ladder: 4th (7W, 3L)
Yes, the Giants went into the round with such an edge the loss to Adelaide didn’t see them drop in the rankings. But their trip to the Oval was nothing to write home about. The Crows often made GWS pay for trying to be too clever.
+2 // Ladder: 2nd (8W, 2L)
Second side to beat Hawthorn at the MCG? Tick. First side to beat North Melbourne anywhere? Tick. It’s been a good fortnight for the Swans after a degree of concern was raised.
+2 // Ladder: 5th (7W, 3L)
The Eagles have shown some better form the last three weeks, albeit against opposition outside the eight. Perfect time for them to face the Western Bulldogs at Etihad to get a stronger gauge.
+2 // Ladder: 8th (6W, 4L)
Played better than the competition’s in-form team. That Eddie Betts highlight goal was brilliant, but it was made even better by the fact it kick-started a run that basically put away the game. The lead was 21 before Betts scored mid-way through the third. By the break it was out to 46.
+2 // Ladder: 6th (7W, 3L)
Lucky. You take Collingwood’s injuries out of it, and we’re talking about a Pies win. The Dogs will take the four points, but they can’t afford a similar output when West Coast visit Etihad this Sunday.
-3 // Ladder: 1st (9W, 1L)
The loss finally happened. We can move on from the undefeated narrative. There was a small output from the big forwards against the Swans, but that’s a tough feat for an opposition defence to pull off.
-5 // Ladder: 3rd (7W, 3L)
Could have dropped further after consecutive losses to teams outside the eight, but losing to Collingwood and Carlton at the moment isn’t as embarrassing as it might have been earlier in the year. Still, it’s not a good time for the Cats to host GWS coming off a loss. I’m tipping the Giants at this stage.
No change // Ladder: 7th (6W, 3L)
Something to be aware of: the Hawks have the lowest time-in-front percentage of the top eight (48 per cent) and it’s not even close (nearest are Geelong and the Western Bulldogs, both 62 per cent).
+2 // Ladder: 10th (5W, 5L)
Charlie Dixon reminded us he’s capable of having a big afternoon. This time it was five goals in a 45-point win over Melbourne. Can he do it consistently? That’s the question.
No change // Ladder: 12th (4W, 6L)
Unlucky. Alan Toovey, Taylor Adams, Alex Fasolo and Darcy Moore all taken out of the equation through injury. Would have been a real momentum-fuelling win had they knocked off the Dogs.
+1 // Ladder: 13th (4W, 6L)
The Saints were on the ropes against the winless Fremantle. Then they kicked the last nine. Requiring such effort late against the Dockers is a bad sign. David Armitage’s game – 17 tackles, seven clearances, 28 touches and a goal – was a good sign.
+1 // Ladder: 14th (4W, 6L)
That’s three in a row now for the Tigers. Sneak a win against North Melbourne on Friday and the case for them making the eight starts to hold some weight (I’ll still be tipping North, though).
+1 // Ladder: 11th (5W, 5L)
Good game from Bryce Gibbs, lifting after the Marc Murphy and Liam Sumner injuries with 13 touches in the second and ten in the third.
-5 // Ladder: 9th (5W, 5L)
The size of this fall was harsh, but each team on the Dees’ tail won while the Dees themselves produced the type of loss that showed why they aren’t yet at a top-eight level. Port Adelaide, a fellow mid-tabler, presented an opportunity to prove their bona fides. Again Melbourne stumbled the week after a win.
No change // Ladder: 18th (0W, 10L)
Impressive effort against St Kilda when you consider there was no Nat Fyfe, Aaron Sandilands, Michael Johnson or David Mundy. But Ross Lyon slammed the first quarter and they were held goalless in the last quarter. More will be needed to get that first win.
+1 // Ladder: 16th (1W, 9L)
Definitely showed a lot more against Hawthorn than in recent weeks. Had the lead mid-way through the second term, were two kicks down going into the final quarter. Then the Hawks kicked away. Interesting fortnight awaits the Lions now. Carlton and Fremantle are up next.
-1 // Ladder: 17th (1W, 9L)
It’s been seven weeks since any of the current bottom four sides has won a game. At least someone will be put out of their misery when the Dockers host the Bombers this Saturday.
No change // Ladder: 15th (3W, 7L)
Another big loss to add to the list. Let’s see if an injection of players back from injury can turn fortunes around.
Big Tony
Guest
West Coast are also the only team in the top 8 not to host another top 8 team at home so far this year. They have had a tough draw so far... Hawks, Geelong, Sydney and now Bulldogs... all away from home. The only top 8 teams to win interstate this year are Geelong and Sydney with 1 win each, and that was against 8th and 7th respectively. It's tough to make power rankings when home ground advantage swings the results so much. In saying all that... I agree 3rd is a bit high, but all this "flat track bully" talk is off the mark considering their draw.
spruce moose
Guest
Care to explain why? You don't actually think Reid is a capable footballer?
Michael Huston
Guest
Sydney remind me of a hybrid of our 2012 and 2014 seasons. We kind of have the toughness and consistency and scrappiness of 2012, but the kind of X-factor and talent across the board of 2014. What we do with it from here will be interesting...
Pete
Guest
Thanks Michael. In that case I make some of the following observations about the weightings used: 1/ One or two game winning or losing streaks have proved to be mere aberrations in past years. I think the weightings appear to be too heavy on the last 2 games and not enough weight given to a longer streak such as 5 games. Geelong for instance defeated both Adelaide and West Coast 3 and 4 rounds ago so it's hard to see why they are already ranked below both of them. 2/ North have only lost one game and to Sydney at the SCG. They have defeated both the Bulldogs and Adelaide so I can't see why they would be ranked below both those sides. 3/ West Coast have defeated no team of any significance this year and are considered home ground flat track bullies. Every team has belted Gold Coast in the last five weeks so their rating of 3rd at this point I just can't see any justification for. Clearly this must be a flaw in the weightings applied.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Thanks DiFab.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Ross Lyon can't win Bill. Try's to come first and can't. Trying to come last but can't.
Mark
Guest
Wow, you really have no idea.
Macca
Guest
Click bait might be a bit harsh but it is a deliberate argument starter by using some strange results each week that can't be explained statistically.
Hanes
Guest
Harsh on Nth,, Sydney definitely never broke them even though they seemed to have all the play,, but it a Long season for old list (yes) but on current form can't be lower than three even with an average percentage .. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Kavvy
Guest
I'd definitely have switched the swans and giants after the weekend myself. Hate to admit it, being a hawks fan, but I think you were a tad harsh on Geelong dropping five spots. Carlton and Collingwood will upset a few more top 8 sides before the year's out. Bulldogs don't deserve to jump 2 after being down until Collingwood's horrific injury run. North shouldn't have dropped as hard either 1 or 2 spots after their first loss would be fair. So I guess I'm going; Swans Giants Roos Crows Cats Dogs Eagles Hawks Eagles will jump a few spots in mine if they roll the dogs at etihad this week. Cats will drop if they lose to the giants at skilled. Roos will plummet if they lose to Richmond (highly doubt that would happen though) Couple of exciting games coming up A tough task no doubt and there's arguments either way so good on you for having a crack Michael. Fascinating season to say the least and more open than it's been in a long long tome
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Thanks for reading as always TomC. You're correct in assuming a gap between 7th and 9th. Your comment made me look over it again and I've just realised how close 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th are right now. There's barely anything between one spot and the next, which guarantees the Dogs/Eagles will head in different directions. The Giants, actually, still have a bit of a buffer -- but the rankings are rarely kind to teams that win twice in a row.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Bill, always happy to explain. The Giants went into the round with a bit of a buffer behind them. They were the clear No 1 side last week and the side that did happen to be closest to them (Geelong) obviously weren't going to take their spot this week. Hence, they were able to weather the loss to the Crows. The spots last week from about 2nd to 7th were very tight, very little separated 2nd from 3rd, 3rd from 4th, 4th from 5th, etc... Therefore, the results at the weekend had a big say in whether those teams went up or down.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Bit disappointed in the clickbait comment Macca. If I was only in it for the 'clicks' it'd be pretty pointless responding to the amount of comments I do every week. We can discuss the rankings respectfully without shots like that.
geoff
Guest
Im tipping geelong to humiliate gws this week and move up to no.1 in the power rankings.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Hey Pete, thanks for reading and taking the time to comment. I'll try to respond as best I can. In the case of Geelong, their -5 was really a culmination of two weeks of below-par performances. Yes, the -5 this week may seem harsh, but in hindsight the -1 last week could be considered light. Personally I think dropping six spots over two weeks is a fair outcome given their performances. I'll also point out that it is very tight at the top end right now, so if you lose and others below you win, you're almost guaranteed to have your ranking affected. That also helps explain North's drop. I know it looks harsh, but there really wasn't much of a buffer behind the Roos going into the round, so it was always going to be hard for them to maintain their spot when each of the three teams below them had quite reasonable wins. Another thing to point out is that these rankings are an assessment of where teams are at *right now*. It's weighted so that the most recent games are worth more than those further in the past. That the Crows has lost four games matters less than how they've gone over the past fortnight, for example.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
G'day Pope. Hope I can explain it for you. The Giants staying the same and North dropping three can obviously be questioned, but some teams have enough of a buffer behind them to weather a loss. In the case of GWS, they were the clear No 1 last week. That meant there was a reasonable gap between them (in No 1) and the No 2 team. But there was a cluster of teams (I think 2 down to about 7) where very, very little separating the teams. North, as a team in that cluster, were going to struggle to maintain their spot if others in the cluster won, which happened. Take this week's rankings. Melbourne are one spot above Fremantle. Maybe you don't agree with that, but let's roll with this example. If Melbourne lose next week and Fremantle win, there's a good chance they won't even swap places. Why? Because there's a bit of a gap between 14 and 15 in the comp right now, a gap one game probably can't overcome.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
That's a good point, Perry!
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
I hate pies, thanks for reading. West Coast I'll admit is a bit of an awkward one. They could beat Gold Coast by 150 and people would still dismiss it as irrelevant. But you can't ignore their last three weeks has featured a 100+ point win and 75+ point win, with a decent win against one of the stronger mid-table sides in between. They've done what they had to do to rise up the rankings when sides previously above them (Geelong in particular) have demonstrated a need to be lowered.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Hey Spruce, thanks for reading. Yes I have the Dockers above the Bombers and I think it's fair. These rankings aren't a measure of wins and losses. Winning helps obviously, but we look at the strength of performances and quality of opposition mostly. It's also weighted so more recent games count for more. That means Essendon's win no longer carries too much sway. Both Fremantle and Essendon have shown competitive stretches. Taking all into account, I think the Dockers have demonstrated better form (or less bad form, if you want to look at it that way!).
Bill
Guest
Haha. Thats good. We will beat your mob by 10 goals and Hardwick will go back to looking on seek.com.