The much-anticipated return of Eagle Farm racecourse is finally upon us, headlined by the Queensland Oaks for three-year-old fillies. Unfortunately, the weather gods haven’t smiled on south-east Queensland, after an extremely long period of dry and idyllic weather.
The irony is, although it’s very annoying for racing officials, it perhaps highlights the fact that the track should have been ready some time ago, and poor weather can hardly be blamed for the length of the hiatus.
A large amount of rain has been forecast for Saturday in particular, but also Friday, and some had already fallen on Thursday. It might place the entire meeting in jeopardy, but if the meeting does go ahead the likelihood is racing well be on a heavy track.
In general when a new track has been laid it tends to favour on pace runners closer to the rail, and a wet surface is most likely going to make life even more difficult for horses to come from rearward and wide to win.
Making assumptions can be fraught with danger but that is what we have experienced in the past with the likes of Randwick and Flemington. It should pay dividends to watch the earlier races and study where the winners are coming from, keeping in mind that the tempo can also be influential.
The beauty of races at Eagle Farm at this time of year is that races are so often truly run, so if horses aren’t running on out wide in the straight off a genuine speed, you can safely assume that there is a track bias against them.
Looking for wet trackers isn’t exactly rocket science, though it’s generally pertinent to remember that those carrying the lightest weights are more suited when a track gets very wet. Conceding weight on wet tracks to lighter weighted horses can be more of a task than on drier surfaces.
I have perused the slow and heavy track form and breeding credentials of the vast majority of runners, and have tried to find some at value that could make an impact.
Race 1
The mother (dam) of Redouble won a race on debut in New Zealand on a heavy track by 7.5 lengths, and she did win up to 1600 metres in her career. Redouble has already won on a Slow 6 surface and appears classy enough to trouble the two favourites. $7.50 looks a decent price.
Race 2
Felines has already got very good form on wet tracks, and has six wins from nine at this distance. Her mother also won on a heavy track at Doomben during her career. She should run very well at a price of around $5.
Race 3
Maurus looks a good bet given his 2/2 record on heavy tracks coming off a career-best performance in the Doomben Cup. No fancy price but he should be very hard to beat.
Race 4
Sold For Song is 2/2 on wet tracks and I’m totally forgiving her last run where she didn’t have a lot of luck. The run prior when second to Takedown was quite simply breathtaking, and there was talk of a Stradbroke run before that race.
Kimberly Star has the best heavy track stats of any horse in the race so has to be given massive respect. Both these horses are short enough in the betting market at this stage and a bit hard to separate.
Race 5
Shades Of Bella comes off a win in Victoria. She ran third prior to that behind Voodoo Lad and Marwood on a heavy track and both those horses are very good on wet surfaces. $11 is nice enough price for her.
Frill Seeking is by a very good wet track sire in Sebring. Her mother Vietnam was pretty smart, and did win on a Heavy 10 track here over 1400 metres in her career. She is yet to strike a wet track but could be the surprise packet at better than $20.
Race 6 (QTC Cup)
One at value odds that almost certainly prefers wet ground is Sure And Fast. He can peak here third-up, and while he doesn’t have the class of a few of these that might not matter on a very wet surface.
Race 7 (Queensland Oaks)
A difficult race to assess with most of these very young fillies yet to run at 2400 metres on a very wet track. Two that have are Ambience and Chambaud, but neither managed to win the ATC Oaks, although running quite well.
I’m looking at Falkenberg running a bold race here given she is a full sister to Sebring, who won a Golden Slipper and a Sire Produce both on heavy tracks. She has had no luck lately and if she can run the distance she is a very good hope of winning.
Sebring Sally (by Sebring) ran a very good second, flying home late in the Doomben Roses after being three wide throughout and has won on a heavy track. $16 seems to be overly generous odds for her in this.
Race 8
Federal looks the one to beat with a heavy track win at 1400 metres and some good form around the Doomben 10000 winner Music Magnate. Electric Power should go well back on a wet track, and is by a super wet track sire in Mossman. He is twice the price of Federal, and although I’m a little concerned by the 1500 metres, he does have a provincial win at the distance, and his dam did place at 1800 metres.
Hopefully the rain doesn’t come but if it does let’s hope the damage to the new surface at this famous old racecourse is negligible. We have a lot to look forward to in the next couple of weeks including the Stradbroke Handicap, Queensland Derby and Brisbane Cup.
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