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Not all AFL picks are created equal

Is Patrick Dangerfield the best player in the AFL? (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Expert
7th June, 2016
34
1254 Reads

There’s been plenty of talk in the past week or so about the value of draft picks, or, more specifically, about the value of winning versus adding a higher pick.

Some swear by the importance of picking as high as possible, others argue the difference between pick three and seven is negligible and a winning culture is more important.

What does history tell us?

Players drafted in 2012 are now in their fourth season, which is long enough to have established themselves as AFL players, so I’ve looked at the ten drafts from 2003 to 2012.

The ten players taken first overall have played an average of 144.3 games – the highest of any draft slot – and three of them have been named All-Australian – Adam Cooney (1), Brett Deledio (2) and Marc Murphy (1).

It’s a pretty drastic drop to the pick ten group, which have played an average of 64.3 games and just the one All-Australian – three-time representative Patrick Dangerfield.

Pick two and pick five have produced fewer games on average – 120.8 and 129.3, respectively – than the top selection, but the second slot has netted four All-Australian players – Jarryd Roughead (2), Dale Thomas (1), Trent Cotchin (1) and Nic Naitanui (1).

Pick five has produced more All-Australians than any other top-ten pick in the period with five players earning a place in the team of the year – Lance Franklin (5), Scott Pendlebury (5), Travis Boak (2), Michael Hurley (1) and Jake Stringer (1). The 14 total All-Australian selections are miles ahead of the next best of five, suggesting pick five has produced the most brilliance.

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Of course, luck certainly plays a part. Pick six has proven to be a disaster several times, with an average games played of just 72.6, thanks largely due to injury-cursed players Tom Williams (85 games), Beau Dowler (16) and Mitch Thorp (2).

Is it just bad luck, or are teams just more willing to take risks outside the top five?

Joel Selwood was considered a risk when he was taken at pick seven in 2006. Three premierships, 215 games and four All-Australian selections later, that looks a bit silly.

Pick nine is the only spot yet to produce an All-Australian, but the average of 91.9 games is better than picks six (72.6), eight (69.7) and ten (64.3).

Surprisingly, pick three has produced just one All-Australian (Ryan Griffen) despite an average games played of 126.1. Of course, if you go back a couple of years earlier to 2001, you’ll find Chris Judd was taken third, but let’s not go any further down that rabbit hole.

What about the best players in the competition? It’s subjective to determine who’s best, so let’s look at the top 50 selected by the experts on The Roar.

If you remove father-son selections taken under the old third-round rule, Greater Western Sydney pre-draft pair Jeremy Cameron and Dylan Shiel, and Taylor Walker, who arrived at the Crows via the NSW scholarship program, that leaves 44 players who were available to be drafted.

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Of those 44 players, 14 of them were top-five draft picks – that’s about one-third of the best players in the league and another 14 were taken between pick six and 20, with ten of those players selected between 11-20.

There are more players in The Roar‘s top 50 who were picked up as rookies (five) than picked 6-10 in the national draft.

What does all this tell us? Well, there might not be much difference between pick one and five, but recent history suggests you certainly want to be picking in the top five.

The top five picks produced an average of 125 games played and 14 of the 50 players taken have been All-Australians. Players taken 6-10 have averaged 85 games with only six All-Australians.

2003-2012 average games played, All-Australian players
Pick 1: 144.3, three
Pick 2: 120.8, four
Pick 3: 126.1, one
Pick 4: 105.2, two
Pick 5: 129.3, five
Pick 6: 72.6, one
Pick 7: 127, two
Pick 8: 69.7, two
Pick 9: 91.9, zero
Pick 10: 64.3, one

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