No matter what you think of the cars, the tracks, or any other part of the myriad of factors that makes up modern Formula One, there’s no arguing that the opening third of Formula One 2016 has been a pleasure to watch.
From Nico Rosberg’s extended run of victories to the slashing of his championship lead from 43 points to just nine, the sport is hurtling towards its halfway point on a high.
If one were to look only at the results, however, it would be easy to mistake this season as little different from any other. Mercedes continues to share the spoils of victory among its two drivers, leaving the likes of Ferrari and Red Bull Racing to collect the scraps.
While Mercedes’s 76-point lead in the constructors championship is testament to the old phrase the stats don’t lie, the balance of the season thus far cannot be told by statistics alone.
The fact of the matter is that after two long seasons of silver-coloured domination the sport sits on the precipice of open battles for victory.
“We are coming back to normality,” said Mercedes executive director Toto Wolff “We [have been] in a lucky situation for two years to be the dominant team, and now what we are seeing is that the gaps between the top three or four teams are really shrinking.
“Ultimately this is the reason why we are all here, so my feeling is that this is pretty much the normal situation now.”
And Wolff is right, as he has been all season, to say that his team’s vice-like grip on the sport is being slackened by the latest iteration of cars from his principal rivals.
Canada, with its long back straight and slow chicanes, has been a favourite Mercedes circuit since the dawn of the hybrid turbo era in 2014, and at that season’s Canadian Grand Prix Mercedes held a 0.674-second qualifying advantage over the next fastest car, that number shrinking subtly to 0.621 seconds 12 months later.
This year the difference between Lewis Hamilton’s pole position and Sebastian Vettel’s P3 classification was 0.178 seconds, with Daniel Ricciardo’s Red Bull Racing RB12 just 0.176 seconds further back.
With such negligible difference between the top three cars, Sunday was set to be a thrilling all-in duel – and with the exception of Red Bull Racing, which struggled in the chilly Montreal weather, the sport delivered. Or, rather, it very nearly did.
Sebastian Vettel aced his start in a fashion eerily reminiscent of his getaway from the line in Melbourne, and though little was thought of the parallel at the time, it proved deeply foreboding.
With crucial track advantage over Hamilton in second – indeed, Vettel was able to manage the gap as if he had been doing so at every race since his last championship – Ferrari had the race within its grasp. But the Scuderia dropped it.
The race was finely balanced between being a one and two-stop race, with some degree of uncertainty regarding tyre degradation on the cold circuit, but Ferrari was inflexible on changing its plans for a two-stop race in light of Vettel’s hard-fought lead, ultimately undoing the team’s entire weekend.
When Vettel emerged 7.8 seconds behind Hamilton after his final pit stop, he was always going to need Hamilton to commit an uncharacteristic error to allow the Ferrari to pass the evenly matched Mercedes.
What is most galling for both Ferrari as a chief Mercedes competitor and for Formula One fans as the sport’s key stakeholders is that for the second time in a row and for the fourth time this year a leading team-driver combination has thrown away almost certain victory on an inexplicable strategy call.
In Australia, as it was in Canada, Ferrari made a tyre-strategy blunder, leaving Vettel on used supersoft tyres after the red flag period despite the Mercedes cars being switched to the medium compound.
In Spain both Red Bull Racing and Ferrari became so distracted by directing the battle between Sebastian Vettel and Daniel Ricciardo that both gave up track position around the difficult-to-pass circuit, leaving the teams’ second drivers – Max Verstappen and Kimi Räikkönen – to fight for victory.
The Monaco Grand Prix was famously marred by not one but two terminal Red Bull Racing errors. The first was to gamble Ricciardo’s crucial lead from pole position on the intermediate tyre and the second making a last-moment call to change tyre compounds for his final pit stop and losing 13 seconds to eventual winner Hamilton.
Now, for a fourth time in seven races, track position was again gambled on a marginal strategy for negligible results, and for the third time Mercedes recovered an unlikely victory.
None of this discredits Nico Rosberg’s win in Australia or Hamilton’s dual victories in Monaco and Canada, because on all three occasions Mercedes and its drivers did only what was necessary to seize the top step.
But after so many near misses, one cannot help but think that the complexion of the 2016 Formula One season could have been dramatically different if only its protagonists were more confident in the face of victory.
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anon
Guest
"Okay, so Mercedes was running higher downforce — it was still a slower car at the end of the straight, and it still wouldn’t have been a straightforward matter to pass the Ferrari. Your logic also assumes that Verstappen is better at defending in the third-best car than Vettel is in the second-best car, which is fairly ambitious." I don't think ultimate top speed means a whole lot. Often in the past the Williams with their customer Mercedes engine has been faster in a straight line than the Mercedes works car. Lips Verstappen's car placement was absolutely amazing in Montreal. Just watching the end of FP1 now. Ricciardo IS NOT helping himself with his crash. Maybe overdriving the car because of the pressure he feels from Lips Verstappen??
Michael Lamonato
Expert
Okay, so Mercedes was running higher downforce — it was still a slower car at the end of the straight, and it still wouldn't have been a straightforward matter to pass the Ferrari. Your logic also assumes that Verstappen is better at defending in the third-best car than Vettel is in the second-best car, which is fairly ambitious.
anon
Guest
"You’re overestimating how fast the Mercedes is — both Ferraris were faster at the speed trap than the Mercedes cars, and the fastest Ferrari was 2.5km/h faster than the faster Mercedes." Wehrlein was fourth-quickest through the speed trap in qualifying. Ferrari had lower down force setup is all. "Think about how Rosberg couldn’t pass Verstappen’s Renault-powered Red Bull down the straight (and allow me to pre-empt your ‘Rosberg is the third-best German driver on the grid and has no racecraft’ comment!). In qualifying Mercedes can give its power unit an extra kick, but in race mode performance between it and Ferrari is pretty close. Ferrari’s chassis isn’t as good as the Mercedes, I’ll grant you that, but everything is converging at this point." Rosberg has always had trouble passing cleanly. Rosberg easily had the speed to get ahead of Verstappen, but Verstappen had such great car placement.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I think Hamilton's chicane shenanigans were more line-ball than you say. I think the first thing that falls in his favour was that Ricciardo wasn't really in a position to make a move around the outside of the chicane, and the second thing was that Hamilton left just enough room on the outside of the exit to keep it legal — the problem for Ricciardo was that it was too wet on that part of the track. The rules don't say anything about whether the car width should be wet or dry!
Michael Lamonato
Expert
You're overestimating how fast the Mercedes is — both Ferraris were faster at the speed trap than the Mercedes cars, and the fastest Ferrari was 2.5km/h faster than the faster Mercedes. Think about how Rosberg couldn't pass Verstappen's Renault-powered Red Bull down the straight (and allow me to pre-empt your 'Rosberg is the third-best German driver on the grid and has no racecraft' comment!). In qualifying Mercedes can give its power unit an extra kick, but in race mode performance between it and Ferrari is pretty close. Ferrari's chassis isn't as good as the Mercedes, I'll grant you that, but everything is converging at this point.
anon
Guest
"But surely qualifying, starts, and incidents are what make a grand prix weekend, right?" Hamilton would have got past quite easily with DRS on those long Montreal straights. Either way Ferrari would have lost on the strategy because their car simply isn't up to scratch, but two stopping and forcing Vettel to pass the Mercedes on a straight was plain daft. On the other hand, if the VSC lasted maybe another 10-15 seconds, Vettel would have effectively had a free pit stop and would have been right behind Hamilton with fresh tyres. The VSC came in early and Vettel found himself 6 seconds behind Hamilton (if that is correct). It's a strange year. The combination of Hamilton's errors, Hamilton's poor starts and some bad reliability in qualifying has at least given us an entertaining championship up until this point for the most part.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
But surely qualifying, starts, and incidents are what make a grand prix weekend, right? If every car just got to run 50 or 60 laps in clear air they'd all return different performances to what they're capable in a race. If Vettel one stopped and Hamilton was stuck in his dirty air, unable to pass because his car is inefficient behind other cars, would that also be an anomaly?
Michael Lamonato
Expert
This isn't happening, it's not a thing. Mercedes isn't paying Hamilton all that money and shipping him to 21 races around the world to waste his time and company money.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I definitely agree with you that Hamilton has grown into a great driver — in particular a mature driver — but I don't think he's that good that other drivers in either of those situations couldn't have beaten him. In Monaco Hamilton's strategy was obviously the better one and the tyres were very clearly lasting — drivers who put on the intermediates found little pace advantage over the wets, in part because the wets were redesigned this year for performance and durability. I have no doubt Ricciardo would have been able to do the same had RBR left him on that strategy. It was a similar story in Canada. Yes, Hamilton drove exceptionally well in his excellently-balanced car to preserve the tyres, but Valtteri Bottas also managed it, and I similarly believe Ferrari could've done so had it had faith in its car. Obviously Vettel had some scrappy moments in the race, this is true, but I don't believe this is indicative of Hamilton being a uniquely gifted driver.
nick
Guest
Merc will have a PR dream. Out of 51 Greman drivers only 2 have been world champ. I would not be suprised when the constructors title is safe they bend the rules a bit. A radio message to say the engine is hot, short shift to protect it........maybe
anon
Guest
"Hamilton has grown into a great driver , the victory was gifted at Monaco but who else could have driven the race he did , a one stop race from wets to ultra-softs ? Hamilton the maniac making the softest tyres out last his opponents ?" Hip Hop Hamilton was gifted track position because of a bungled pit stop. Then Ricciardo got a chance to pass Hamilton when Hamilton cut the chicane, then Hamilton illegally chopped him. Went unpenalised of course because the British media would have been frothing at the mouth, hounding the poor stewards for weeks after. Track position is everything at Monaco. The only real place to pass is the chicane out of the tunnel, but Ricciardo has a horrible Renault. Passing is so hard at Monaco that Hip Hop needed his teammate (who was 2-3 seconds per lap slower than Ricciardo) to move over in order to get past him. Hamilton couldn't pass him. "In Canada he managed to make the tyres last while still driving fast enough that Vettel went off track trying to keep up , twice ." Canada is a power circuit. Vettel was never a chance of putting a pass on the Mercedes. Makes Ferrari's extra pit stop forcing Vettel to pass Hamilton on track all the more stupid.
anon
Guest
"I certainly raised the prospect of a potential Rosberg title prematurely, though the reality remains that he’s only had one race where he’s been squarely outraced by Lewis, at Monaco." I don't think Rosberg has beat Hamilton for pure speed yet this season. His wins have come because Hamilton bungled his starts and Hamilton got mechanical problems in qualifying. Starts are down to driver skill, so that's on Hamilton, but over 21 races you're not going to beat someone in the championship by relying on them bungling most of their starts. "The once processional Mercedes one-twos are only extending to Saturdays in 2016, replaced by fortuitous victories complemented by minor points returns’ for the second car." Only because of mechanical problems in qualifying, poor starts and incidents during the race. Put them both in clean air at the front and they'll romp away. We haven't had a race like that yet for the reasons given above.
anon
Guest
Mercedes have never made a decision that favours Rosberg over Hamilton. When push comes to shove they always choose Hamilton over Rosberg. With good reason too. Rosberg is the third best German driver in the league.
Baz Brush
Guest
Hamilton has grown into a great driver , the victory was gifted at Monaco but who else could have driven the race he did , a one stop race from wets to ultra-softs ? Hamilton the maniac making the softest tyres out last his opponents ? In Canada he managed to make the tyres last while still driving fast enough that Vettel went off track trying to keep up , twice . The Mercedes may be the best car but it still needs to be driven .
nick
Guest
There is still time for HAmilton to have a few little problems that will let Rosberg win the title... Not that the German team would ever sanction a bias to a german driver......... I see a few engine issues for Hamilton, maybe a grid penalty or two . But I have to agree with you that Verstappen out drove Rosberg, great to watch a talent like that, put him in a better car and he will win.
nick
Guest
Last time Rosberg hit hamilton when he closed the door on him.. This time hamilton hit Rosberg when he slamed the door on him passing. What happen to the penalty / warning to Vetel and Rosberg for not going around the marker to rejoin the track when they skipped the last corner???? Seams double standards again...... remember Senna getting penalised for using an escape road ........
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I wonder if the other teams have just gotten used to not competing for the win. Red Bull Racing obviously knows how to win— it's a largely unchanged team since the championship years — yet hasn't been making decisions like a championship-winning team.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
Ha, we probably would've been too delirious ourselves to notice! Agree with all your observations from the race — Rosberg will have to come out swinging in Azerbaijan and Austria to reassert himself, as will Ricciardo, who backs himself around a street circuit.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
Interesting thought on mandating a soft tyre be used. The fact that Pirelli mandated two sets of softs rather than a set each of soft and supersoft was interesting — would a run on the supersofts have made some teams tilt more towards a two-stop by having a halfway compound available? Hard to say, I suppose.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
It does feel a bit like, despite Ferrari' protesting it's a championship contender, that everyone is racing for second place. It's almost as though the last two years have beaten down the spirits of everyone. I guess it's a learnt underdog attitude.