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So where was I? That’s right. I was saying this is the Wallabies’ series to lose. And at the moment they’re doing their best to hand it away.
So the Wallabies got demolished, 39-28, by England in Brisbane. Where does that leave my declaration that the Wallabies should be considered strong favourites to win the series?
For a start, there’s a lot of good news out of the first Test. Signs that the Wallabies were knocked off their game more than indications they are woefully out of form.
A lot of the significant numbers point to the Wallabies having a strong game on Saturday night. They scored four tries to three. Had 62 per cent of the possession, and made 112 runs to just 68.
The Wallabies ran for a whopping 802 metres in the Test match. The New Zealand and Wales tallies don’t make the large Australian total look like skyscraping outliers, but they are. More than 800 metres of running is enough to win two Test matches – just ask England, who only ran for 412 metres themselves.
The Wallabies had the most line breaks (ten to five), offloads (nine to one), which have been an issue for them in previous Tests, sequences of more than seven phases (six to one) and the fewest missed tackles (nine to England’s 22).
When you’ve played yourself into such a fantastic position in so many categories, the only reason for losing by 11 can be that you gave it away.
The biggest piece of good news for the Wallabies was a general one: the first 20 minutes of the match.
Despite my stated position being that the Wallabies were strong series favourites, I was taken aback by just how well they played during the opening quarter of the Test.
The ball movement was swift and decisive. Players were running into holes. The dangerous runners – Israel Folau, Dane Haylett-Petty and Samu Kerevi – were being given plenty of opportunities. Forwards were busting a lung to get to the breakdowns, which happened acres apart because of the ball movement, before the white jerseys could steal possession.
The backs might have been even better at securing the ball on the fringes of the paddock.
England couldn’t touch Australia for the first 15 minutes. They rushed up in defence and grabbed at space. They lunged out of the line only for an intelligent pass to move the point of attack beyond the braced defensive shoulder.
Look at the Folau try again. The final sequence is very simple – Bernard Foley passes out in front of Folau and with just enough length to allow the runner to leave the outside shoulder of the defender. Owen Farrell rushed up quickly, as was the England plan, but he was all on his own and the ball moved so quickly he never had a chance to recover.
It wasn’t the move itself that was lethal, it was the fact it came on the back of so many just like it. It was the closest to your ‘hands can’t hit what your eyes can’t see’ the Wallabies had produced in some time.
But they got knocked out of that rhythm by a street-smart and calculating England forward pack, and never recovered.
The Wallabies are a good rugby team, as their raw numbers show, but they are like a strong live rock act. If they follow the set list, hit all the right bits, plug in some solos at the right moment, and don’t stray too far from the classic hits, they are going to win on most nights.
If you get them into some sort of broken down and improvised jam, they’ll falter.
England slowed the game down, niggled in between the rucks and whistles, enticed the Wallabies into retaliating and wooed them into a different set list.
Suddenly the classic rock set had morphed into some sort of robust free-jazz routine without a discernable beat, punctured by long, meandering chats between the singer and the audience.
It was obvious from the second bit of niggle in the match, when you could hear Stephen Moore complaining to the referee about Dylan Hartley’s behaviour.
“And he’s supposed to be their captain,” Moore said in disgust.
But niggle, aggro and the aggressive stop-start sequences are exactly why Hartley was given the duties.
(The All Blacks, in beating Wales, showed once again they are good enough to adapt to any set list and win. They can grind you into dust and win 15-12 on the back of the kind of play England hoped for on the weekend. Or they can crank it right up to 11 like they did on the weekend, and play at an insane speed for just a bit longer than you can, and suddenly you’re losing by two tries from broken play. Arena rock, go-go pop or free jazz, they’re always virtuosos.)
The Wallabies played into England’s hands by trying to out-duel the masters of rhythm-less acid jazz. The 15-8 penalty count in England’s favour is testament to that fact. The Wallabies were whinging and moaning instead of adjusting, heads swivelling around looking for conspiracy theories instead of being more accurate at the ruck and letting the ball sing.
Suddenly Owen Farrell had kicked six penalties and the Wallabies were staring down the barrel of two must-win Tests.
How do the Wallabies win those matches? They play to the whistle, adapt with the referee and ignore the aggro – especially in the forward pack. Back your game, not your ego.
Wind up into that high gear you found in the first 20 minutes in Brisbane. That is the game England desperately don’t want to play. They can’t belt out hit after hit with Australia.
On the weekend, England’s forward pack was industrious and played well to its plan. Maro Itoje and James Haskell were especially effective. But they weren’t constructing too many of their own attacking opportunities. The England backline had a poor defensive night that should be exploited again and they were just good enough in attack to take advantage of what the Wallabies offered.
Again, this series is about whether the Wallabies hand it to England or keep it all for themselves.
The area of genuine concern is the Wallabies scrum. Far from the referee being one-eyed during the match, he saved Australia’s bacon during a couple of scrums. Scott Sio collapsed more shoves than he was penalised for. That needs to be fixed during the week, but now he has a week to prepare for whatever dark arts Dan Cole used, or for James Slipper to take the start.
Strangely, the scrum steadied with Slipper on the field, but that may have been the presence of Sekope Kepu as well.
In terms of proactive strategy, Michael Cheika should adjust the team slightly, by adding Christian Lealiifano at No.12. The Wallabies need a second credible kicking option in the midfield to release the pressure of giving Farrell kickable penalties and flip field position more regularly.
Foley had a fantastic game but he needs support in the kicking game. Haylett-Petty can kick from the back three, but he should be chasing clearing kicks, not making them.
Kerevi had a good first game and is a long-term Wallaby, but he isn’t the rounded No.12 you need to beat a northern hemisphere team at this stage. And he may develop into a long-term and better version of Tevita Kuridrani anyway.
There would be less pressure on the kicker with Foley on one side of the ruck and Lealiifano on the other. The Wallabies would be able to have more of their possession – even if it is slightly less than the 68 per cent on the weekend – in better parts of the field and put the pressure back on England.
Bring on Game 2. If the Wallabies stick to their set list for more than 20 minutes, it’ll be one-all coming to Sydney.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.