Queensland racing switches its gaze to the provincial circuit at Bundamba in Ipswich this Saturday, for the running of the Ipswich Cup, Eyeliner Stakes and Gai Waterhouse Classic.
All three races are what is known as ‘listed class’ which is basically the step below Group 3 grade.
Because of that factor, this meeting doesn’t attract the cream of the Winter Carnival horses, but there are still eight decent races to analyse and I’m going to attempt to find some value in some of them.
At the time or writing, the track is a Good 4 rated surface, and there is a chance of some rain on Friday and possibly Saturday. Not a lot is forecast, though, and the chances are that rating will prevail on the day.
Race 1: Class 6 Plate 1600m
I’m not terribly confident but will go with Court’s Star who probably recorded his best career win here. Not sure what happened to him last start in a race where he was totally out of his depth, but a 14-length defeat is hard to forgive on paper.
He gets a new jockey here and a good barrier, with a big weight drop. He is very capable on his day and if he finds his best form he can win at around a $20 or better quote.
Race 2: Three-year-old Handicap 1350m
Madame De Ban won at this track and distance last start and did what few horses can do earlier in her career by winning her first two starts, the second being a jump of two classes. She has a bit of potential but definitely needs a dry surface given her only two poor runs have been on wet tracks.
She has drawn well and is on the minimum weights so should run well at a better than $15 price. If it is wet then the likes of Dee Nine Elle and Always Sacred look suited, but they aren’t any fancy prices.
Race 4: Class 6 Plate 1100m
There is a lot of speed in this race which might help some of those drawn out in wider barriers. If there is any rain around I’d be pretty keen to invest on Irish Constabulary who is three from three on wet tracks. He has won two of his last three starts, and the win at Doomben three starts back was very impressive.
With 51.5 kilograms this lightly raced seven-year-old trained by Melbourne Cup winner Sheila Laxon (in partnership with John Symons) looks very well weighted, and is one of a few horses that isn’t coming back in distance from 1200 metres. He might even salute on a dry surface too with that weight and $10 was available at the time of writing, which seems very generous.
Race 6: Ipswich Cup 2150m
Looks a very nice race for the favourite Maurus, particularly if the track is rain affected. But I’m not here to select horses at that price, and would rather go each way on a horse like Jumbo Prince.
He hasn’t been tested past 1600 metres in this preparation, but this time last year he was a close third in the Queensland Derby and he had Werther alongside him. As we now know that horse is world class, and although this one hasn’t really gone on with it, he gets his chance to shine in this ordinary race (excepting Maurus) at an $8.50 price.
He did dead heat with Rudy three starts back and that is just about good enough form to suggest he can win this. And he has drawn a good barrier to get an economical run. Any rain won’t hurt his chances, and his place price is superior to the win price of the favourite.
Race 7: Eyeliner Stakes 1350m
Once again a lot of speed engaged in this race which should suit the favourite Trubia, who was ridden a bit upside down last start. I’m more inclined to go with the longer priced Timeless Prince though at $12. He actually beat home Trubia in the same race last week, and will also relish a truly run race.
It was also quite a decent effort by him last week finishing the race off well out wide. That was only his second-up run this preparation, and he should be fitter for it. And he is proven backing up off a seven-day break, whereas Trubia is an unknown factor in that regard. It’s a very even race but I think Timeless Prince is the best value under the circumstances.
Race 8: Gai Waterhouse Classic 1350m fillies and mares
There are quite a few horses in this race that don’t go best beyond a distance of 1300 metres so a horse like Elusive Catch, proven at the distance, could surprise especially if the track is wet.
She wasn’t that far behind Ghisoni three weeks ago on Doomben 10000, day and the time run in that race was pretty slick. She was too far back to make an impact given the sectionals that day, but she did beat some very handy ones to the post.
Barrier one should afford her every chance on the minimum weight. At the time of writing, she had been quite well backed into $17 from an opening quote of $41 with some betting agencies.
I’ve neglected the two-year-old race (Race 3) and the Provincial Stayers (Race 5) as they are a bit too difficult to assess for my liking. One or two winners off this list might well ensure a decent profit, on what is always a pretty difficult day for Punters.
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