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The Fremantle Dockers have taken their third win in a row, bettering Port Adelaide at home by 17 points on Saturday.
Final score
Fremantle Dockers 12.14.86
Port Adelaide Power 9.15.69
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The Fremantle Dockers and the Port Adelaide Power face-off in an intriguing match at Domain Stadium this afternoon. Join The Roar for live scores and commentary from 4:35pm (AEST).
While this match is not overly important in the context of the premiership race, it nevertheless shapes as an interesting litmus test for both sides.
Having started the year with ten straight losses, Fremantle enter Round 13 on the back of thumping victories against the Bombers and Brisbane Lions.
As such, even taking into consideration the low quality of their opposition in the past fortnight, Fremantle should go into this game with a level of confidence not seen since the opening fortnight of the season.
In contrast, Port Adelaide come into the game after a loss at home last week against the Western Bulldogs. However, sitting in ninth on the ladder, it appears that there is far more at stake for the Power than the Dockers this week.
Indeed, with an even 6-6 ledger after 12 rounds, Port’s season lies at the crossroads. While their form has certainly been reasonable in the last month, they will need to play at a higher standard in the coming rounds if they harbour genuine aspirations of playing football in September.
In team news, Fremantle have made one change from last week’s trip to Brisbane, with Matthew Pavlich coming in for Jack Hannath after a week’s rest.
Pav should be physically and mentally refreshed after the break, and I expect him to have a big game against the rather inexperienced Port Adelaide defence.
For Port, Karl Amon replaces the omitted Jared Polec.
On paper, Freo and Port look to be evenly matched in a number of departments. For example, both are conceding an average score of 90-95 points this season, with Port ranked 10th and Fremantle 12th for points conceded in 2016.
In addition, in clearances, both sides are averaging 37 a week. As such, the most telling statistic for mine is the points scored by each team respectively this season. While Fremantle have scored 967 points so far at an average of 80 points a game, Port Adelaide have racked up 1205, at an average of 100 points a game.
Consequently, if Port Adelaide splits the midfield battle and uses the ball well going forward, they should have the guns up forward to get the four points. Indeed, this game has ‘Robbie Gray, 30 disposals, three goals, three votes’ written all over it.
However, if Fremantle can shade Port Adelaide at the contest, and their defensive rebound functions at a 7/10 or higher, they are certainly capable of pulling off an upset. Port Adelaide have lost a number of close games this season, and they appear to lack on-field leadership at crucial moments.
Additionally, although they have recorded six victories this season, none of their performances have really exceeded a B-grade standard.
At home, they have beaten arguably the three worst travelling teams in the league: St Kilda, Essendon and Brisbane.
On the road, while they have convincingly defeated Richmond and Collingwood, their opponents played appallingly in both matches.
They are the ultimate ‘middling’ side, and I’m not confident that they will repeat the intensity of last week’s effort against the Dogs.
Prediction
While Port Adelaide will be more desperate for the victory, and according to my analysis should win by about 20 points, it was only a month ago that Fremantle outplayed GWS for a large portion of the game and lost by just three goals.
Dockers by two points.
See the result differently? Please let me know! And, of course, don’t forget to join The Roar this afternoon at 4:20pm (AEST) for live score updates and debate in our live blog.
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